RANT: TRUST ME. WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO LOSE?

 

 

IN ONE OF THE MORE POPULAR video games, the main character, a giant, orange toad, taunts his bête noire: “We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.” What follows is a wild, roller coaster ride where the Toad King fights a losing battle to save all his marbles from the…ooh wait…my bad. That quote is actually from the real-life Toad King, Donald Trump, taken from one of his so, so many Truth Social posts, and his aforementioned opponent is the octogenarian Supreme Leader of Iran, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

WE ARE JUST FINISHING the first week of the conflict that saw Israel make unprovoked missile and drone attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, as well as its high-ranking military officers and nuclear scientists. The later attacks were done primarily with drones that had been smuggled into Iran and sited near their human targets. In a scenario similar to the attacks carried out earlier this month by Ukraine against Russia’s heavy bomber fleet (part of its nuclear “triad”), which saw nearby parked trailer trucks launch “suicide” drones into Russian airfields, the Israelis launched similar drone attacks against Iranian military and scientific leadership. Such an attack is called a “decapitation” strike and, here, the goal was to kill key members of Iranian leadership and foment regime change.*

Over the last few days, Israel and Iran have launched missile and drone attacks back and forth, in a tit-for-tat fashion, but steadily climbing the escalation ladder as more people die and more infrastructure is rubbled. The Israeli attacks have failed to dislodge or disrupt Iranian leadership ranks, and Iran's military continues to return fire into Israel.

  

WE WILL SEE if the Iranian stockpile of missiles and drones is as large as it's been reported, and whether Israel’s “Iron Dome” anti-missile defense system can withstand sustained missile barrages from Iran. We will see if the United States will enter the fray with bombers equipped with bunker-buster munitions targeting Iranian nuclear sites deep underground. President Trump announced he will take two weeks to decide whether he will commit U.S. forces to enter the conflict directly (and not just supply Israel with weapons and bombs, and backstop Israeli air defenses). If the U.S. president does commit American forces to back up Israel, what will Russia and China do? After all, Iran is a member of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) trading block and has recently inked a military pact with Russia. How will they support Iran? Or, in a very unlikely scenario,  perhaps peace will break out everywhere, ushering in a new age for mankind. ☮

 

👉FUN FACT: Recall that Steve Witkoff, the billionaire buddy of President Trump was set to resume talks with Iranian officials to iron out a deal around Iran’s civilian-use-only nuclear program. The negotiating teams were to meet last weekend in Oman, but, as with most things American these days, dialogue between Iran and the U.S. has become a dog’s breakfast of mixed messages, threats, 180° changes in policy, along with ultimatums, cancellations and subterfuge. 

IF ONE HAD a conspiratorial mind-set, one might very well conclude there was collusion between the Israelis and the Americans to lull the Iranians into a false sense of security whereby Iran’s leadership took it for granted there would be no hostilities before the scheduled weekend talks, and therefore the country wasn't put on its highest alert level and its key personnel (nuclear scientists, military leadership, etc.) safely secured. Israel attacked on Friday, June 13, the day before the talks were to resume. Iran was caught flat-footed and unprepared, to be sure, though they have since recouped their air defense and missile/drone capabilities.⁺ And, I guess the message we’re supposed to take away from this duplicitous episode is that the Iranians were chumps to trust the Americans. 😞 

TODAY, we need more than ever trust, predictability, and bargaining-in-good-faith to resolve disputes among our increasingly fractious nations. Before it's too late. Raise your right hand if you agree.

 

 Cheers Jake.  ____________________________________

 

* Several high-ranking military officials and nuclear scientists were killed, and some oil facilities were targeted. Clearly it was part of a “decapitation” strike, though Israel says it is only interested in destroying Iran’s nuclear program. But their agenda is wider—they want to undermine Iranian leadership and create civil unrest in the nation of ninety million by attacking other infrastructure besides Iran's nuclear facilities--the most critical of which are deep underground, hence Israel's request for American heavy bombers equipped with thirty-thousand-pound "bunker-buster" bombs, which have the most powerful, non-nuclear, explosive force yet devised, and are rightly called MOABs ("Mother Of All Bombs"). Of course, this would mean American Air Force personnel directly involved in the conflict. And what happens when the body bags start returning home is anyone's guess. Ed.]

 

+ Trump later admitted he knew about the impending Israeli cruise missile and drone attacks. The operation, dubbed "Rising Lion", was initially successful because the Iranians were bargaining in good faith. They assumed the Americans were, too. But Trump and Netanyahu were reading from a different playbook, namely Trump’s The Art of The Deal, using “maximum pressure” to coerce concessions during negotiations, in this case with a surprise attack. Of course, should MOABs start dropping on Iran's nuclear laboratories (what's a little fallout among friends?) there will come the entirely predictable blowback, with some commentators calling June 13 Iran's "Pearl Harbor" moment. And we all know how the first one turned out.

Talks are scheduled today (June 20) in Geneva between Iran and representatives from France, Britain and Germany to keep peace talks open during the two-week 'wait-and-see' period President Trump has declared, during which he will decide whether or not there will be direct American involvement in the conflict. Trump has also stated there is still room for future negotiations. But who the fuk knows what the giant orange toad American president will do next?  

👉 Who can trust the Americans in any negotiation after this crude display of subterfuge and shoddy statecraft?