NoW UPDATES: DRONES, DRONES, AND MORE DRONES!

   

Quad-copters loaded in trailer with retractable roof *

Well, well! Those Ukrainians sure have been busy these last few days, haven’t they? They carried out drone strikes attacking five airbases in Russia, a couple of them several thousand kilometres from the front lines, as well as downing two bridges, one with a passenger train crushed by the falling debris. There was also a report that the Kerch Bridge connecting the Russian mainland with Crimea was attacked, though with only minor damage to a pylon.⁺  The operations were dramatic and audacious, and a big PR win for the NATO-backed Kiev regime. All told, “Operation Spiderweb” took about 1½ years to bring to fruition. It was a devilishly clever ploy, using trailer trucks parked near the airbases which contained “first-person view” (FPV) quadcopter “kamikaze” drones. They were launched and controlled remotely, with the roofs of the trailers automatically opening to allow dozens of drones to fly to their targets. Approximately 117 drones attacked the five air bases, three of which were successfully defended, two report damages to some long-range bombers. Naturally, there are discrepancies in the assessments of how much damage was done at each airfield, with the Ukraine side claiming as many as forty planes destroyed and the Russians saying there were six or seven.

THERE IS drone footage of the attacks at one airfield showing several planes catching fire. The bombers were lined up on the tarmac with spare tires laid along their wings and fuselage to disguise the planes’ profiles and confuse AI identification of the bombers as targets. In this case, drones were controlled by individual operators inside Ukraine who are thought to have ‘piggybacked’ on local Russian mobile networks to control their drones. In one instance, we see Russian civilians unsuccessfully trying to stop the quadcopters as they launch from a parked trailer using bricks and small-arms fire. Another trailer caught fire, exploding and killing its driver. So, there was a lot of Sturm und Drang over last weekend but nothing that will change the battlefield situation. Russia seems poised to make a major to push to the Dnieper River.¹ Then what? Advancing on Odessa? Or perhaps Kiev? Who knows?

 

    Drone footage from last weekend's attacks inside Russia

👉Question: Why were the bombers—Russian Tu-95s and Tu-22Ms, among others—parked on the runway tarmac, exposed and vulnerable to attack from drones or missiles? It seems such a silly thing for the Russians to do. After all, these long-range strategic bombers are part of the Russian Federation's “nuclear triad”, along with land-based ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles), and sea-based surface and submarine SLBMs² forming the second and third pillars respectively of Russia’s nuclear deterrence system. Both the United States and Russia have around eighty to one-hundred-and-twenty bombers capable of carrying nuclear payloads (gravity/glide bombs and cruise missiles). Like the Russians, the U.S. also has its heavy bombers parked on runway tarmacs in the continental U.S. They are equally vulnerable to similar attacks. Why is this? It’s because of the "New Start" treaty between Russia and the United States limiting the number of warheads each country may possess, along with their “delivery systems”, i.e., silos, ships and submarines, and heavy bombers (Land, Sea, and Air). With respect to the strategic bomber fleets, they are visible on the tarmacs of both country’s airfields so that their numbers can be counted and verified, using satellite imagery, and stay in compliance with arms control treaty obligations.

 

HERE'S THE RUB: Last weekend’s attacks on Russian airfields hosting nuclear-capable heavy bombers are a threat to Russia’s national security. Imagine the uproar if such a thing were to happen to America’s strategic bomber fleet! Weakening one ‘leg’ of its nuclear triad, by definition, leaves Russia more vulnerable to a “first strike” (nuclear) attack. So, to say the drone attacks by the Zelensky regime were reckless is an understatement in the extreme! No doubt, by attacking Russia’s treaty-compliant strategic bomber fleet, Ukraine is hoping to provoke an over-the-top response from Russia that would convince NATO and Washington that Ukraine must be supported at all costs. On Tuesday, President Putin gave a speech addressing the Ukrainian actions and watching his body language it’s obvious he is angry. Very angry.

Did Trump or the Americans know about the scheme? Who-knew-what-and-when-did-they-know-it is the perennial power-politics board game played in nation capitals around the globe. So far, Trump has said he had no knowledge of the attacks. This plot was hatched a year and a half ago during the Biden administration and may be the horrid love child of the Blinken-Sullivan duo.³ Who knows for sure? Some commentators suggest, along with Ukrainian operators, Britain’s MI6  and the CIA had their hands in constructing this dangerous deal. Targeting Russia’s nuclear deterrence system is about the most provocative action  Ukraine could take short of trying to assassinate President Putin.

Oh, wait. I forgot. They did try to kill Putin. On a visit to Russia’s Kursk Oblast last month, the site of Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory that began in August of last year,⁴ the Russian president's helicopter was attacked by a swarm of Ukrainian drones. The drones were repelled, but if the helicopter had been shot down and President Putin killed, Kiev stood a good chance of being turned into an ashtray.

Recall what happened last year when Ukraine launched drones deep into Russian territory, attacking an Early Warning Radar site. That bright idea resulted in changes to Russian nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for when a nuclear weapons can be used by Russia. It was as clear a signal of FAFO as you can get. What Russia’s response will be for this recent drone attack on Russian strategic bomber fleet is unclear at this time. But it could be significant.

 

p.s., The peace talks held in Ankara, Turkey seem to be at a dead end, with Zelensky’s drone stunt the day before the talks were to resume putting the kibosh to the deal. It was a short meeting, IIUC, with both sides presenting their formal proposals which are MILES apart, though there may be a deal around a POW exchange and roaming ceasefires so each side can reclaim their dead. But we’ll see. [Thus far, prisoner exchanges and repatriation of the remains of fallen soldiers are on hold, even though Ukraine agreed to the deal last week during the second round of talks held between the two combatants. Ed.]  

Incidentally, Trump has been relatively quiet (for him) with respect to the drone attack on Russian bridges and airfields. Trump said his call with President Putin was a "good one". Keep in mind that that's not how he usually characterizes things ("fabulous", "wonderful") which suggests the call may have been a frosty one where Putin read him the riot act! The jury’s still out as to whether Trump knew about Zelensky's dangerous venture. If he was kept in the dark, that means he’s not in control of his own administration. Which is worrying enough. But, if he did know, he’s destroyed the last shred of credibility he had with the Russians who will, going forward, take matters into their own hands. Instead of fruitless negotiations with untrustworthy interlocutors, Putin will see things decided on the battlefield.⁵ High-five guys!😯

 

CHEERS, JAKE. ____________________________________

 

* Note that the pic is brought to you by Ukraine's SBU ("Security Service of Ukraine"), as they crow about the 'success' of the drone mission into Russia. Putin has stated there will be a demonstrable response coming, so their victory may well prove a pyrrhic one. Stay tuned.   

⁺ While the airfield attacks can be considered legitimate targets in wartime, the attacks on the bridges (using planted explosives, remotely detonated, one as a train was passing underneath) can only be classified as war crimes because civilians were deliberately targeted. There were several deaths and dozens injured in the bridge bombings; no injuries were reported in the airfield attacks.

 

1. From a Russian military perspective, it makes sense moving to the river which acts as a natural barrier and is more easily defended. But, to continue west beyond the Dnieper would be entering territory that is predominately Ukrainian. It’s a safe bet that Russia wants no part in garrisoning and ruling there, given the level of hostility that would engender in the indigenous Ukrainian population. 

👉But, moving on Odessa and linking up with the Russian enclave of Transnistria in neighbouring Moldova, even taking Kiev and ending the Zelensky regime, are very real possibilities.

 

2. “Submarine/Sea Launched Ballistic Missiles”

 

3. Anthony Blinken, former Sec of State; Jake Sullivan, former National Security Advisor during the Biden administration.💩💩

 

4. And wound down by April of this year, with Russia expelling/destroying the last remnants of the invading Ukrainian army. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers were killed or wounded in Zelensky's vainglorious attempt to "bring the war to Putin".    

 

5. If Trump had said from the get-go, when he took office in January, that he was turning off the spigot—no more money or arms for Ukraine; that the U.S. is pulling up stakes and moving on, and if he had told Zelensky to sue for peace and the Europeans to toe the line, the war might be over by now. But he didn’t. And now the albatross called Ukraine hangs heavy around his neck. It’s no longer “Biden’s War”. It's his, now.  

 

    Musk's "Starship" at testing grounds in Texas

FUN FACT: “New Start”, the only remaining nuclear arms limitation treaty between Russia and the United States, is set to expire in 2026. There’s been no indication from Washington that it’s interested in renewing the treaty that put a cap on the number of warheads and delivery systems each country may possess. A new arms race may be in the offing. What the fuck are we doing, people?!

[It’s time to book passage on Mr. Musk’s "Starship" to Mars. Where do I sign up! Ed.]