RANT: LEAVING ON A JET PLANE, DON’T KNOW WHEN I’LL BE BACK AGAIN…

 

RECALL THE PROVERB about the hole in the bucket—you know, the one where the farmer goes to the well to draw water, but no matter what he does the hole determines the carrying capacity of his water bucket. He will need to make more trips to collect the same amount he previously collected, costing him time, energy, and ultimately money. Or he will make do with less. Yes, he could repair the bucket but that's beside the point: In systems theory, there is the principle that an organism or an organization is only as strong, as viable, as its weakest link:

 

“The principle that "a system is only as strong as its weakest link" means a system's overall performance is limited by its most vulnerable component. [Italics mine] In system theory, this bottleneck or constraint—whether a person, process, or technology—determines the maximum capacity and failure point of the entire system. Strengthening the weakest part yields the highest improvements.” (Google AI)

 

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ is the ‘weak link’ in the system of transporting crude oil and distillates from the Persian Gulf to the world. Functionally, it hadn’t been one before February 28 when Israel and the United States decided to once more attack Iran in round two of their illegal war of aggression against the Persian state. Prior to that, the Strait had been open and freely navigated by all. Iran closed the Strait (the sovereignty of which it shares with Oman), to vessels from nations hostile to it and those aiding and abetting their activities. Most Gulf oil goes to Asian markets (80 to 90%), with China receiving over one-third of all deliveries. Over 50% of China’s oil comes from the Gulf through the Straits of Hormuz, while ninety-eight percent of Filipino oil and nearly 90% of Japan’s crude oil comes from the Gulf. These countries and others (Italy, Greece, Poland, Spain, Malasia, India and Pakistan) have negotiated deals with Iran and now pay it toll fees, some as much as two-million dollars per tanker, for safe passage through the Strait. That amounts to billions per year in increased revenue which will go towards rebuilding Iran’s infrastructure damaged during the United States/Israel-Iran war begun in June of last year and reprised on February 28. There has been a tenuous ceasefire since April 7.

 

Note: Dissatisfied with the pace of peace negotiations brokered by the Pakistanis in Islamabad, on April 13 the United States imposed its own blockade (a blockade of a blockade!), denying passage for ships bound for, or leaving from, Iranian ports. This was done to pressure Iran to open the Straits to all maritime traffic free of charge, as it was before the war.* [Surely, war planers in the Pentagon considered closing of the Strait was something Iran would probably do once the shooting started? Now the mess created by the U.S. and Israel has spread, with ramifications for the entire globe. Nice job, guys! Ed.] Over three-quarters of Iran’s oil shipments have, thus far, been confiscated by Trump’s illegal blockade. But with millions of barrels of oil already in tankers at sea and in its shadow fleet ships, with pipelines to Turkey and the Caspian Sea, and with higher crude oil prices due to market unease over how the war is gaming out, all these mean that Iran can sell its oil at premium prices, resulting in an overall increase¹  in state revenues. 

STILL, there's the problem of Iran’s oil storage capacity being nearly full, which means oil wells must be capped, until their flow can be restarted at a future date (not an easy process.) And, don't forget the same problem exists for the rest of the Gulf States with uncapped oil wells filling up storage capacity, necessitating more and more wells be temporarily shuttered, adding to the time it will take to restart them and ramp up production after the war ends. 

👉That's unless Trump does something really stupid like starting the bombing campaign again. Which would trigger Iran to respond with a massive missile attack, decimating the Gulf states (and Israel, and American bases in the Middle East) and their oil infrastructure, taking offline 20% of the globe's oil supply. The resulting damage to economies throughout the world in the wake of such a clusterfuck would be incalculable.

 

MEANWHILE, in early May as I write this, countries around the world are beginning to feel pressure points in their economies as looming shortfalls in crude oil supplies are ‘baked-in’ and all but inevitable, with the resulting supply-chain disruptions already being felt in Asian countries, especially those with inadequate strategic petroleum reserves, or ones that are hard-pressed to pay for more expensive petroleum products. By now, most tankers that exited the Straits prior to February 28 have reached their destinations and have discharged their cargoes. Once that is used up, there will be a 20% shortfall in available crude until production levels once more meet the demand. Unless something is done to bring this war to an end real soon, some commentators predict a global recession by the summer and the possibility of a serious depression this autumn—one that could be on par with the Great Depression of the 1930s—unless crude oil and petroleum distillates are flowing full-throttle within the next few weeks. 

The American ‘counter-blockade’ against Iran must be lifted before the Iranians will even consider talks on opening the Hormuz Strait to pre-war traffic levels. Gulf states that aided Israeli and American attacks are not allowed to use the Straits at present. Global shortfalls in crude oil will mean shortages in dozens upon dozens of plastic products made from oil, including distillates like diesel and jet fuels.

 

Other Gulf exports like LNG, urea and ammonia (used in fertilizers), aluminum, as well as helium used in the manufacture of computer chips, will soon be in short supply. 

And a shortage of certain pigments made with petroleum distalates, along with an accompaning price hike in the available stocks, has led one Japanese (potato) chip manufacturer to print their bags in black and white [The Horror! The Horror! Ed.] 

👉ALREADY, farmers here in Canada are predicting lower crop yields later this year and next summer, due to increased cost of fertilizers, herbicides, diesel fuel, etc. Canada uses approximately 2.4-million bpd of oil, including nearly 900,000 bpd that is imported and sold primarily to eastern Canada. In an oil crunch, I guess Canada could export less to fulfill the country's needs or access the nearly limitless Alberta oil sands. Problem there is getting the oil from the west to the east coast. There are no east-west pipelines for a variety of reasons, and so Canadians should not be too sanguine about easily accessing oil diverted from exports or topping up our tanks with oil sands bitumen in a pinch. All may not go according to plan. And it's interesting to note that Canada is the only member of the G-7 countries that does not have a federally-controled strategic oil reserve, relying, instead, on the vast bitumen deposits in the west. Hmmm...

 

AIR LINES were the first headline grabbers, with an insecure supply chain for jet fuel causing the immediate cancellation of flights or the elimination of air travel routes altogether. (Who wants to buy a return flight ticket when jet fuel might be in short supply at the other end.)

IN EARLY APRIL, farmers in Ireland protested the rising costs of diesel by creating roadblocks with their tractors and other forms of peaceful demonstrations. FOLKS, THE PAIN WILL COME HERE in the next few weeks with the fuel price rise (despite the Liberal government temporarily removing the federal sales tax on gasoline). Expect scarcity of some food products and consumer goods along with price increases. 

 

👉As long as the Straits of Hormuz remains closed, things will only get worse. A note, passed from the Iranian delegation to Pakistani mediators listed five prerequisites that the Americans and Israelis must accept before negotiations over Hormuz could be discussed. These ‘givens’ to any future treaty run headlong into America’s maximal demands of "zero enrichment" of nuclear fuels and limits on Iranian missile forces; etc.. It’s hard to see where a deal can be made, especially given the abysmal track record of Trump’s negotiating team of Mutt and Jeff Kushner and Witkoff; the continued use of those two suggests to all and sundry that the Americans are not interested in genuine peace negotiations. If they were, they would not send these two unserious people to do the hard work of negotiating on behalf of the American government.

 

IT'S a knock-em, smack-em, drag-out match to see who will groan first--Trump or Iran. It's about who can withstand the pain the longest as world markets crash and economies slide into Recession, and even into that razorback-filled pit of Depression, as supply chains crack and crumble. The United States started this thing, with Zionists at home and abroad aiding and abetting, and arm-twisting the American president into yet another foolish and costly escapade in the Middle East. It's not just Epstein's ghost that haunts the sleep of President Trump, it's also the Three Ghosts of Modernity: Hubris, Indifference and Envy.

 

👉I THOUGHT I would get back in writing mode now that Trump’s gone to China and all of us can take a breather and walk through sunlit fields far from The Donald's rollercoaster ride to Hell. Perhaps the Chinese will keep him. Wouldn’t that be nice?     

 

CHEERS, JAKE. _____________________________________

 

* AS I UNDERSTAND IT, Iran’s blockade is legal because the Strait of Hormuz waters lay within its (and shared with Oman’s) maritime territorial waters. The United States is in breech of international law because it has no jurisdiction to seize Iranian ships in the Gulf of Oman’s waters. Iran’s blockade of this vital ‘choke point’ in the maritime supply chain for oil may set a precedent for other such bodies of water throughout the globe. 

 

1. Recall that the United States originally allowed Iranian oil shipments (and Russian oil which remains tariff free) to reach their destinations, thus keeping the international price of oil from climbing too quickly. They subsequently placed sanctions on any country buying Iranian oil. Perhaps the most important aspect in this whole kerfuffle is the willingness on the part of more and more buyers to purchase Iranian oil using local currencies, chiefly the Chinese Renminbi (RBM) instead of U.S. dollars, thus avoiding American scrutiny of their dollar-trade activities. Not using the USD or “petro dollar”, is a sign of the weakening hegemonic power America exerts over global financial markets, with more dominoes set to fall in the coming months and years. 

Stay tuned!

 

 

  

       

RANT: WARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWAR

 

 

“April is the cruellest month, breeding

Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing-

Memory and desire, stirring

Dull roots with spring rain”

(line 1-4, The Wasteland, T. S. Eliot)

 

LET’S HOPE OUR APRIL is less cruel than Eliot’s was when he published The Wasteland in 1922, following those long, broken years after World War One. SO FAR in West Asia, the Strait of Hormuz has apparently been reopened to all ‘friendly’ traffic and peace…oh, wait. That was yesterday. Today, apparently, it’s closed again to all, or mostly all, traffic, potentially stopping 20% of global oil reserves from reaching their markets. Originally, the Iranians had closed the maritime ‘choke point’ in response to the February 28 attacks by the United States and Israel which ended the November 2025 ceasefire.

Since February 28, the Iranians have launched devastating counterattacks against Israel, as well as Gulf Arab states hosting American military bases or allowing overflights of American and Israeli warplanes.

 

AFTER WEEKS OF intense bombing and missile attacks from both sides, a two-week ceasefire was negotiated and went into effect April 7. In the following days, Trump insisted there also be a ceasefire to temporarily end Israel’s ferocious attacks on Hezbollah militia (Iran’s ally). Over 2,000 Lebanese were killed, 6,000 injured, and nearly one-million have been displaced from southern Lebanon since March 1.  Not to give Donald Trump any more credit he doesn’t deserve, but here he may have ‘boxed the ears’ of the Israelis to include the Lebanon deal, though Israel says it retains the right to launch “defensive” attacks (and it continues its scaled-back, for now, ‘Gazafication’ of southern Lebanon, irrespective of what the feckless American president says). On a Truth Social post, Trump said: “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so. Enough is enough!” (April 17)

 

IRAN, responding favourably to Trump’s apparent arm-twisting of the Israelis¹ to make them honour 😂 a ceasefire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, opened the Strait to commercial shipping.

LATER THAT SAME DAY Trump announced he would not be extending sanctions relief* on exported Iranian oil he'd initiated with Iran at the same time he did for Russian oil “on the water” to keep global oil markets relatively ‘topped up’ and prices as low as possible. He also announced, on April 17, a blockade of Iranian ports along Iran’s southern coast beyond the Strait of Hormuz, and for those Iranian ships transiting to and from the Strait (illegal under international law, but who’s counting?). The next day, Saturday April 18, Iran closed the Strait once more in response to this skullduggery by the U.S. 

ON SUNDAY, an American warship crippled and boarded a commercial vessel attempting to run the American blockade in the Sea of Oman as it transited to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. The ship carried cargo from China. Q: Is that why the ship was stopped, because it was from China? America wanted to peak 'under the hood' to see what China was sending Iran?Who knows?

 

NOTE: The Iran War ceasefire, in effect since April 7, is due to expire on Wednesday. Trump said the Americans were sending a crackerjack negotiating team (Not! It’s the same losers as before—Vance, Witkoff and Kushner) to Islamabad, I guess hoping for another marathon negotiation to be hammered out before Wednesday's ceasefire deadline. As of this writing, Iran has not confirmed it is sending a negotiating team. Frankly, why should they? The American "B-Team" (at best) shows one and all that the United States is not serious about substantive negotiations and they are there just for show. It's a performance. Nothing more.

I'M GETTING WHIPLASH with all the toing and froing from the American president. Is this leadership? Or untreated ADHD? We have indeed been press-ganged aboard the SS Donald Trump. Batten down the hatches, Maties!

 

ON A RELATED TOPIC, Larry Johnson, a former CIA officer who writes at Sonar21.com, said during an interview on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive podcast that the real effects of the turmoil in the Persian Gulf on world oil supplies are only now about to be felt. Other economies are adopting rationing of their domestic oil reserves, or tax relief on gasoline etc. Canada has recently waived federal excise taxes on gasoline, diesel and aviation fuels until Labour Day. Prices of petroleum products have gone up around the world because oil is a globally traded commodity and is sold within an international price range, though as an oil producer, our domestic refineries here in Canada are well-stocked. Nevertheless, I noted a 35-cent per litre increase in gasoline at the pumps over last week. Other countries are less advantaged, like Japan which imports over 90% of its oil needs. China imports roughly 50% of its oil requirements from the Gulf region, with 12% coming from Iran.

 

HERE’S THE RUB:

On February 28 Iran is attacked by Israel and the United States, ending the November 2025 ceasefire. Subsequently, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to all save “friendly” traffic. Missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel/United States continued throughout March, with the Strait mostly closed. On April 7, a two-week ceasefire was brokered. On April 17, Trump (“Enough is enough!”) insists on a similar ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. [Hezbollah militias were established following the invasion of southern Lebanon by Israel in the Nineteen-Eighties. They are the major military force in that country and the only one that can stand against Israeli aggression. Ed.] Following Trump’s peace initiative between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel, Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz, stating that the terms of the original November 2025 ceasefire between Iran and Israel/United States had finally been fulfilled (by the Lebanese ceasefire, something that was ignored by the Israelis). A positive move, right?...until Trump said he will not extend the U.S. moritorium of secondary sanctions on Iranian oil. He also sent naval ships to blockade Iranian ports. Sigh….

 

👉HERE'S THE REAL RUB nicely summarized, I must confess, by Google’s AI:

 

“Based on April 2026 reports, recovery from a blocked Strait of Hormuz will take months due to severe supply chain disruptions and backlog, even after the waterway reopens. While initial shipping traffic might stabilize within roughly two months, full recovery of Middle East exports is expected to take 12-18 months, with shipping schedules remaining disrupted for months.” (Google AI)

 

ANOTHER WAY of putting it: Each day that oil does not flow through the Strait, along with fertilizer, urea, LNG, diesel and airline fuels, aluminum and helium (though each will have separate metrics), for each day that oil in particular does not flow through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 20M bpd, several days (a week? More?) are required to get production and distribution back, and until that happens a short fall of 20% in the world's petrochemical energy supply, with all the cascading effects throughout the world's economies that will entail, will become the new normal for some time. Another month of restricted passage (not including damage done to Iran’s and the Gulf State’s oil infrastructure in the meanwhile) may entail global oil shortages lasting several months. 

👉 Should this regional war go pear-shaped and Iran's civilian infrastructure and oil distribution network are attacked, Iran is capable, along with their Houthie allies in Yemen, of putting offline over one-third of the world's daily oil consumption!😱 

IF THIS BABY isn’t put to bed real soon, we’re going to end up in a world of hurt. Buckle Up, Amigos!  

 

 

CHEERS, JAKE. _____________________________________  

 

* American sanctions on Iranian oil shipments, along with Russia’s that are on the water as of March 11 would be lifted. The last of those ships carrying tens of millions of barrels of oil will soon reach their ports. Sanctions were lifted on Iranian (and Russian) oil to keep global oil markets stable and the price per barrel from inflating to the point where economies worldwide begin to wobble.

 

“The step was part of a series of measures launched by the Trump administration to quell skyrocketing energy prices following the start of the war on February 28, including a similar easing of sanctions on Russian oil at sea.” (Times of Israel)

 

TRUMP ALSO ANNOUNCED that the U.S. would blockade Iranian ports south of the Hormuz Strait (an act of war according to international law), part of his usual negotiating tactic of “maximum pressure”, to make Iran concede. We’ll see who yells “uncle” first. Predictably, Iran responded to Trump’s latest pressure tactic by again closing the Strait of Hormuz. Good job, Donald.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED that U.S. naval vessels operating in the Gulf of Oman, some distance from Iran’s coastline, will be interdicting Iranian shipping to and from the Persian state’s ports. Or at least they’ll try.

Oil aboard Russian tankers on the water will see an extension of the American moritorium on secondary sanctions. Eliminating secondary sanctions allows Russian oil to be sold to countries without financial penalties accruing to the importer. Iran is not so lucky in this matter. 

 

1. Patrick Henningsen, in a recent talk on his podcast, Sunday Wire, suggests Trump and Netanyahu are reading from the same playbook, that there is no disagreement between them in terms of goals or tactics. When Trump gave a gruff ‘cease and desist’ order for the Israeli president to stop his attacks on Lebanon, Netanyahu ignored him though he did slow down for a day or so. But it’s all show—a kabuki theatre, Patrick says, designed to flood the media space with contradictory statements and false narratives, disguising how much Zionist and Imperial objectives overlap. For example, Trump and “Bibi” both want Iran gone as a nation state and they play good cop-bad cop games to disguise this fact. More and more though, Trump will drop a turd in the punchbowl and just say whatever comes to the surface in his increasingly fried brain like: “We’ll just have to drop more bombs” or “I want the oil”.  

Out of the mouths of babes and sundowners! 

 

“Gazafication”— “Refers to the extension of Israeli military tactics like siege, intense bombardment, destruction of infrastructure, and forced displacement used in the Gaza Strip to other areas, mostly notably the West Bank. It describes a process of creating “coercive environments” that make areas unlivable for Palestinians through surveillance, confinement to enclaves, and destruction of civilian life.” (Google AI)