CAN YOU PASS THE CATCH-UP, PLEASE

 

IT’S REALLY TIME someone gets out the butterfly net and scoops up the U.S. president before he chokes on that foot he keeps putting into his big mouth. WHILE the world watches with increasing alarm at the build-up of American forces in the Middle East, Trump continues to threaten he will attack Iran after the U.S. midterms tomorrow. Recall on September 22 at the opening ceremonies of the current session of the United Nations, and before the UN General Assembly and the world’s eye, Trump toyed with the idea of “annihilating” Iran, in a veiled threat of using nuclear weapons. It was a shameful and shocking speech where the U.S. president came across to those present like a someone unhinged from reality. Trump claims, repeatedly, that America defeated Iran (it hasn’t), that the Strait of Hormuz is open (it’s not); only ships of the Gulf countries that have made arrangements with Iran and Oman, are getting out, with a small percentage slipping past Iran’s Hormuz Strait defences or escorted by American warships. Currently, the Straits remain contested between the United States and Iran. There is oil exported via pipelines, in Saudi Arabi primarily; and ship-to-ship transfers of oil, or else overland through the Caucasus, or by rail China-bound. As far as the amount of oil getting out of the Gulf, I can’t really say—I see so many figures to be sure; I'll guess there's a 20% decline in oil production to this point. But, it is fair to say the price of oil and distillates has increased, shipping and insurance costs are way up, supply chains are affected across the board and people pay more for just about everything. Like diesel fuel, for instance, something that's been in the papers recently. Also, global emergency stockpiles of oil have been drawn down considerably in most industrialzed countries. US stockpiles are nearing the end of their draw-down capacity, risking the collapse of the vast, underground, man-made salt domes in Texas and Louisiana (there are four) where the US reserves are located. Canada has no federally-mandated emergency supply, relying on the oil sands deposits of Alberta.

 

👉THE UNITED STATES failed in its attempt to bring about regime change in the Persian state despite sixty-six-days of bombing beginning February 28*. That day began with a “decapitation” strike, killing a number of security officials, along with the country’s Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several members of his family, including the wife and daughter of the current Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei,¹ who hasn’t made any public appearances since (for security reasons and perhaps because he sustained severe injuries in the attack). 

 

NOW, the war between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, begun when the Saudis, for some reason², bombed Yemen’s international airport on July 17, breaking the years-long truce between the two countries. This conflict threatens to escalate, with Ansar Allah (“Helpers of God”), also known as the Houthis, launching missile barrages into Saudi Arabia, as well as increasing its control of areas inside Yemen still held by Saudi-led militias, and setting their sights on three southern provinces in Saudi Arabia that were once Yemeni. Their missiles are hitting Saudi refineries and pipelines, with replacement costs for the damaged infrastructure estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars!

Going forward, oil production in the Gulf region will be forever changed. In the short term, there will be increased costs, supply shortages, a drop off in critical exports like sulphur, chemical fertilizers, urea, diesel fuels, kerosene (i.e. jet fuel—remember how global airlines cut routes and services earlier this year due to the shortage of Gulf kerosene?), also natural gas, polymers and raw plastics. Optimistically, it will take two to three years to rebuild and reestablish supply chains broken by the Iran War. It could take much longer the longer this war goes on.

Thus far, I haven’t mentioned the political changes that are sure to follow in the coming months and years in the region and globally because of this incredible FUBAR. Stay tuned.

 

👉AND WE MUST WONDER what the American president will do when the mid-term elections result in a crushing defeat for the Republican Party as most pollsters suggest. Will Trump decide to drop more bombs on Iran, now that he is no longer constrained by how such a move might adversely affect the election results? (A majority of Americans do NOT want a continuation of this war.) If he goes after Iran’s civilian infrastructure (a war crime) those Gulf countries continuing to host US ground bases (whatever is left of them after Iran’s missile attacks earlier this year) and who allow their air space to be used by US/Israeli warplanes will be toast. At that point, all bets are off.

 

👉Then there’s Israel and the October 28 election results with Bibi Netanyahu and his Likud party failing to keep their majority thus assigning Netanyahu the role of “caretaker” Prime Minister while the wheeling and dealing of closely aligned blocks of parties begins in earnest to see who among them can form a majority. It’s not certain any can and there may be new elections in the coming months, a not unusual circumstance in Israeli politics. However, Netanyahu may yet pull a rabbit out of a hat and cling to power; he’s done it before. What will change if Bibi is ousted from his seat? Probably less than you’d expect. The two main coalition parties—Netanyahu’s Likud and the principle opposition party, Yashar, led by former IDF general Gadi Eisenkot—need to peel away enough seats from other parties to form a ruling coalition in the Knesset. A spanner in the works is the number of seats the two Palestinian-Israeli parties picked up this election cycle, a total of nineteen between them! [Palestinians comprise nearly 20% of the Israeli citizenry. They are descendants of those who remained in Israel proper following 1948’s Nakba.] They could be kingmakers in the Knesset if they threw their allegiance to either the Likud or Yashar party, but Netanyahu and Eisenkot have said they are unwilling to work with “Arab” parties.³ But, if Netanyahu wins another term in office as PM, that means his two thuggish coalition partners, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, will also retain power, and all three will then claim they have a mandate to continue business-as-usual in the Levant. Should Eisenkot’s crowd succeed in ousting the unpopular Prime Minister, there will little to distinguish the Yashar party from Likud, policy-wise save for a more moderate tone; ethnic cleansing (maybe with a little less genocide) and the “Greater Israel” project will continue apace.⁴

 

 

CHEERS, JAKE. _____________________________________ 

 

* February 28 also marked what I assume was the accidental bombing of a grade school in Minab, killing 120 schoolgirls and twenty-six teachers. Commentators suggest the school was hit because of out-dated ISTAR (“Intelligence-Surveillance-Targeting Acquisition”) data used by Palantir’s “Mavin Smart System”, AI software. [Not so smart. Just sayin’. Ed.] To date, here have been no acknowledgements or apologies from the American president or the Secretary of War “Pistol Pete” Hegseth for this tragedy. Palantir is a large, American tech company that has close ties to Israel.

 

1. Mojtaba is the son of the murdered 82-year-old Supreme Leader. He was elected Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts on March 28.

2. Some analysts suggest the United States arm-twisted/bribed Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) with promises of aid to build a domestic nuclear program. The U.S. hoped Yemen would be forced to curtail its blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait to deal with the Saudi threat, but it’s the other way around with the Saudis on the back foot.  

3. The Joint List and Ra’am parties are called, collectively (and pejoratively), the “Arab” parties, the label “Palestinian” being such a difficult concept to swallow in a society that does not recognize the rights of indigenous Palestinians in the first place. Gaza and the West Bank have no vote in Israeli elections, obviously.

4. Eisenkot is no liberal. He’s as far right as Netanyahu. A former IDF general, his party platform is critical of Netanyahu on domestic issues and Netanyahu’s unpopularity with many in Israel, but there's  little daylight between them when it comes to the issue of the Palestinians.

“Palestinians should not expect a fundamental change in Israeli policy if the Netanyahu bloc loses power,” said analyst Samer Jaber, a doctoral researcher specialising in political economy at Royal Holloway, University of London.

“The major political blocs share core positions on the Palestinian question, including support for the existing settlement structure, while the state institutions that formulate and implement policy would remain unchanged,” he added. (Al Jazerra)

RANT: LET ME GET THIS STRAIT..OR PERHAPS NOT

  

IS IT JUST ME or are things getting a little harry out there on the knife’s edge of international relations? Is reasoned, reality-based decision-making now old-fashioned and sooo last century? Maybe. But when billionaire real-estate sharks mascarade as diplomats, like  the dynamic duo of Witkoff & Kushner, you would think the Trump administration would get the memo that the whole world is laughing at them and sees them for what they are—unserious people acting in positions of great importance and caught butt-naked in their ineptness as the curtain rises and the klieg lights highlight every naughty bit and unmentionable. Let those two go to Abu Dhabi* and build another condo tower or something and get out of the way for real diplomats [do the Americans have any? Ed.] to handle the politics and brokering of peace deals, trade deals and other treaty initiatives.

As I write this (Thursday, May 20), we’re still in a waiting game following Trump’s less than triumphant visit to China, with little results coming from the get-together even with the string of billionaires Trump had in his entourage. Meanwhile, a second attack on Iran is highly probable, and we could see missiles flying by the weekend. 

Trump has painted himself into a corner by going along with the Israeli scheme of regime change in Iran. (Actually the Israelis would prefer to see Iran balkanized like Syria and made impotent with internal conflict.) It didn’t work the first two times: in the “Twelve-Day War” last June, or the rematch of February 28 to the April 7 ceasefire. Heck! Go for it, Mister President! After all, three times’s a charm, isn't it?

Trump doesn’t want to be involved in a protracted war in the Middle East, yet he doesn’t know how to get out the mess he’s made. He might do what he did in the Twelve-Day War—make a big strike somewhere, declare victory and go home. Or he could double down on stupid and continue fighting an Iranian foe that’s holding most of the cards. In the first scenario he’d have to eat a lot of crow pulling his forces out of the region with none of the mission objectives achieved, no matter how they spin the PR. The second scenario is fraught with dangers and a high probability of not achieving anything like a military victory, just like the first two times Israel and the United States attacked Iran. A third possibility is for Trump to admit he's made a mistake and to go home, withdrawing American forces from West Asia (Middle East) altogether. 

👉That’s the best solution, and one that saves lives and billions in treasure the United States can no longer afford to squander on overseas military adventures. How likely is #3 do you think? For someone like Trump, to admit he was wrong and had been led around by the nose by Israel that is desperate to wreck Iran so it can emerge as the preeminent power in the region. Some sort of explosion is likely in the cards. Stay turned.¹

 

 

CHEERS, JAKE.

_____________________________________

 

* Perhaps the UAE might not be such a good place to broaden your real estate portfolio just now. The Gulf state is a signatory to the Abraham Accords which was a 2020 initiative by the Americans to bring Gulf Arab and neighbouring Arab states into a formal treaty normalizing relations with the state of Israel. Had a state like Saudi Arabia become a signatory to the agreement, others would follow and the aspirations of the Palestinian people for a homeland would be in jeopardy. The October 7 attacks in 2023 put an end to that possibility. SIGNING the Accords, while Israel killed thousands of their fellow Arabs, would have been politically impossible for leaders wary of their restive populations who watch, with growing anger, Israel’s genocide and ethnic cleansing of Gaza and its assaults on the West Bank and Lebanon.

👉My point is that the UAE may have made a big mistake signing onto the Accords with Israel: If the Americans and Israelis renew their attacks, an Iranian retaliation would surely result in the destruction critical infrastructure throughout the UAE, along with any nation, Gulf or otherwise, that assisted in the assault on Iran.

 
1. AS OF THIS WRITING, the Hormuz Strait is still controlled by Iran. It's been eleven weeks since the blockade began, following the February 28 attacks by Israel and America. The American blockade of Iranian shipping is also still in force. Now, a trickle of shipping passes through the straits each day compared to pre-war traffic of 120 to 140 ships. Oil tankers bound for China are the exception. Others may have to pay a toll or make some arrangements with Iran for safe passage.

Meanwhile, as the ceasefire of hostilities holds, each side is locked in an economic war to see how long their economies can hold out with global shipments of nearly 20% of the world's oil and derivatives now delayed, and fuel shortages begin wrecking economies without petroleum supplies incoming from the Persian Gulf. 

👉Any re-starting of hostilities might mean the straits will be closed altogether, along with the potential wreckage of Gulf states' oil infrastructures—a catastrophic outcome, I'm sure you'll agree. 

👉Hold onto yer hats! This ain't over yet. And don't forget, there's still Ukraine!

 

 

 Time for Lunch