RANT: LET ME GET THIS STRAIT..OR PERHAPS NOT

  

IS IT JUST ME or are things getting a little harry out there on the knife’s edge of international relations? Is reasoned, reality-based decision-making now old-fashioned and sooo last century? Maybe. But when billionaire real-estate sharks mascarade as diplomats, like  the dynamic duo of Witkoff & Kushner, you would think the Trump administration would get the memo that the whole world is laughing at them and sees them for what they are—unserious people acting in positions of great importance and caught butt-naked in their ineptness as the curtain rises and the klieg lights highlight every naughty bit and unmentionable. Let those two go to Abu Dhabi* and build another condo tower or something and get out of the way for real diplomats [do the Americans have any? Ed.] to handle the politics and brokering of peace deals, trade deals and other treaty initiatives.

As I write this (Thursday, May 20), we’re still in a waiting game following Trump’s less than triumphant visit to China, with little results coming from the get-together even with the string of billionaires Trump had in his entourage. Meanwhile, a second attack on Iran is highly probable, and we could see missiles flying by the weekend. 

Trump has painted himself into a corner by going along with the Israeli scheme of regime change in Iran. (Actually the Israelis would prefer to see Iran balkanized like Syria and made impotent with internal conflict.) It didn’t work the first two times: in the “Twelve-Day War” last June, or the rematch of February 28 to the April 7 ceasefire. Heck! Go for it, Mister President! After all, three times’s a charm, isn't it?

Trump doesn’t want to be involved in a protracted war in the Middle East, yet he doesn’t know how to get out the mess he’s made. He might do what he did in the Twelve-Day War—make a big strike somewhere, declare victory and go home. Or he could double down on stupid and continue fighting an Iranian foe that’s holding most of the cards. In the first scenario he’d have to eat a lot of crow pulling his forces out of the region with none of the mission objectives achieved, no matter how they spin the PR. The second scenario is fraught with dangers and a high probability of not achieving anything like a military victory, just like the first two times Israel and the United States attacked Iran. A third possibility is for Trump to admit he's made a mistake and to go home, withdrawing American forces from West Asia (Middle East) altogether. 

👉That’s the best solution, and one that saves lives and billions in treasure the United States can no longer afford to squander on overseas military adventures. How likely is #3 do you think? For someone like Trump, to admit he was wrong and had been led around by the nose by Israel that is desperate to wreck Iran so it can emerge as the preeminent power in the region. Some sort of explosion is likely in the cards. Stay turned.¹

 

 

CHEERS, JAKE.

_____________________________________

 

* Perhaps the UAE might not be such a good place to broaden your real estate portfolio just now. The Gulf state is a signatory to the Abraham Accords which was a 2020 initiative by the Americans to bring Gulf Arab and neighbouring Arab states into a formal treaty normalizing relations with the state of Israel. Had a state like Saudi Arabia become a signatory to the agreement, others would follow and the aspirations of the Palestinian people for a homeland would be in jeopardy. The October 7 attacks in 2023 put an end to that possibility. SIGNING the Accords, while Israel killed thousands of their fellow Arabs, would have been politically impossible for leaders wary of their restive populations who watch, with growing anger, Israel’s genocide and ethnic cleansing of Gaza and its assaults on the West Bank and Lebanon.

👉My point is that the UAE may have made a big mistake signing onto the Accords with Israel: If the Americans and Israelis renew their attacks, an Iranian retaliation would surely result in the destruction critical infrastructure throughout the UAE, along with any nation, Gulf or otherwise, that assisted in the assault on Iran.

 
1. AS OF THIS WRITING, the Hormuz Strait is still controlled by Iran. It's been eleven weeks since the blockade began, following the February 28 attacks by Israel and America. The American blockade of Iranian shipping is also still in force. Now, a trickle of shipping passes through the straits each day compared to pre-war traffic of 120 to 140 ships. Oil tankers bound for China are the exception. Others may have to pay a toll or make some arrangements with Iran for safe passage.

Meanwhile, as the ceasefire of hostilities holds, each side is locked in an economic war to see how long their economies can hold out with global shipments of nearly 20% of the world's oil and derivatives now delayed, and fuel shortages begin wrecking economies without petroleum supplies incoming from the Persian Gulf. 

👉Any re-starting of hostilities might mean the straits will be closed altogether, along with the potential wreckage of Gulf states' oil infrastructures—a catastrophic outcome, I'm sure you'll agree. 

👉Hold onto yer hats! This ain't over yet. And don't forget, there's still Ukraine!

 

 

 Time for Lunch

 

 

 

 

CRINGE PIC: ARMAGEDDON CALLING

   

I DON’T KNOW about you, but this cringe-worthy pic of the American president surrounded by evangelical ministers in the Oval Office in early March gives me the willies and makes my tummy hurt. Apparently, this laying-on-of-hands prayer-o-rama happens during the Trump Dynasty on an ad hoc basis, when there are periods of conflict, or national tensions, or before major legislative initiatives and the like. No doubt President Tee will be wanting to hold several such ceremonies before the congressional midterms this November when his party (Republicans) is set to be crucified by an electorate all to ready to lay a (decidedly temporal) smack-down on the laggards and lay-abouts in both houses of congress.

👉I wonder how many of these Holy Joe carpetbaggers will be there praying for the president to get the memo from on high, watching askance while he punches in the nuclear codes during a sundowner moment and ushers in Armageddon? I suspect most would be high-tailing it a.s.a.p.

👉I GUESS I prefer my political elites to have both feet planted squarely on the ground, something that should remind them they’re on the same planet as the rest of us, even during those elevated moments when they imagine they can walk on water. Feet of clay, Mister Trump. Feet of clay.

 

SIDEBAR: The wonderfully ornate desk Trump is seated at is called the “Resolute Desk”. It was a gift from Queen Victoria in 1880 and was built from timbers of the British vessel HMS Resolute that had gone in search of the ill-fated Franklin Expedition.* In 1854 Resolute became trapped in ice and had to be abandoned. Subsequently, a whaling ship recovered it and towed it to safe harbour. [The Resolute looks like she'll float. I wonder if Trump would want to follow in Franklin's footsteps? Just sayin'. Ed.]

BTW, my new desk is called “Woo-Woo! Lets Get the Party Started!”

 

CHEERS, JAKE.

 

1.   FRANKLIN'S TWO SHIPS, the HMS Terror and HMS Erebus became icebound and were abandoned in 1848 when 105 officers and crew made their fateful journey on foot to reach the Canadian mainland. None survived. All 129 crew members perished (24 had died previously). In 2014, a “Victoria Strait Expedition” research vessel discovered the wreck of HMS Erebus. Two years later, an "Arctic Research Foundation" vessel discovered the wreck of HMS Terror. 

 

 

RANT: WARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWAR

 

 

“April is the cruellest month, breeding

Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing-

Memory and desire, stirring

Dull roots with spring rain”

(line 1-4, The Wasteland, T. S. Eliot)

 

LET’S HOPE OUR APRIL is less cruel than Eliot’s was when he published The Wasteland in 1922, following those long, broken years after World War One. SO FAR in West Asia, the Strait of Hormuz has apparently been reopened to all ‘friendly’ traffic and peace…oh, wait. That was yesterday. Today, apparently, it’s closed again to all, or mostly all, traffic, potentially stopping 20% of global oil reserves from reaching their markets. Originally, the Iranians had closed the maritime ‘choke point’ in response to the February 28 attacks by the United States and Israel which ended the November 2025 ceasefire.

Since February 28, the Iranians have launched devastating counterattacks against Israel, as well as Gulf Arab states hosting American military bases or allowing overflights of American and Israeli warplanes.

 

AFTER WEEKS OF intense bombing and missile attacks from both sides, a two-week ceasefire was negotiated and went into effect April 7. In the following days, Trump insisted there also be a ceasefire to temporarily end Israel’s ferocious attacks on Hezbollah militia (Iran’s ally). Over 2,000 Lebanese were killed, 6,000 injured, and nearly one-million have been displaced from southern Lebanon since March 1.  Not to give Donald Trump any more credit he doesn’t deserve, but here he may have ‘boxed the ears’ of the Israelis to include the Lebanon deal, though Israel says it retains the right to launch “defensive” attacks (and it continues its scaled-back, for now, ‘Gazafication’ of southern Lebanon, irrespective of what the feckless American president says). On a Truth Social post, Trump said: “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so. Enough is enough!” (April 17)

 

IRAN, responding favourably to Trump’s apparent arm-twisting of the Israelis¹ to make them honour 😂 a ceasefire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, opened the Strait to commercial shipping.

LATER THAT SAME DAY Trump announced he would not be extending sanctions relief* on exported Iranian oil he'd initiated with Iran at the same time he did for Russian oil “on the water” to keep global oil markets relatively ‘topped up’ and prices as low as possible. He also announced, on April 17, a blockade of Iranian ports along Iran’s southern coast beyond the Strait of Hormuz, and for those Iranian ships transiting to and from the Strait (illegal under international law, but who’s counting?). The next day, Saturday April 18, Iran closed the Strait once more in response to this skullduggery by the U.S. 

ON SUNDAY, an American warship crippled and boarded a commercial vessel attempting to run the American blockade in the Sea of Oman as it transited to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. The ship carried cargo from China. Q: Is that why the ship was stopped, because it was from China? America wanted to peak 'under the hood' to see what China was sending Iran?Who knows?

 

NOTE: The Iran War ceasefire, in effect since April 7, is due to expire on Wednesday. Trump said the Americans were sending a crackerjack negotiating team (Not! It’s the same losers as before—Vance, Witkoff and Kushner) to Islamabad, I guess hoping for another marathon negotiation to be hammered out before Wednesday's ceasefire deadline. As of this writing, Iran has not confirmed it is sending a negotiating team. Frankly, why should they? The American "B-Team" (at best) shows one and all that the United States is not serious about substantive negotiations and they are there just for show. It's a performance. Nothing more.

I'M GETTING WHIPLASH with all the toing and froing from the American president. Is this leadership? Or untreated ADHD? We have indeed been press-ganged aboard the SS Donald Trump. Batten down the hatches, Maties!

 

ON A RELATED TOPIC, Larry Johnson, a former CIA officer who writes at Sonar21.com, said during an interview on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive podcast that the real effects of the turmoil in the Persian Gulf on world oil supplies are only now about to be felt. Other economies are adopting rationing of their domestic oil reserves, or tax relief on gasoline etc. Canada has recently waived federal excise taxes on gasoline, diesel and aviation fuels until Labour Day. Prices of petroleum products have gone up around the world because oil is a globally traded commodity and is sold within an international price range, though as an oil producer, our domestic refineries here in Canada are well-stocked. Nevertheless, I noted a 35-cent per litre increase in gasoline at the pumps over last week. Other countries are less advantaged, like Japan which imports over 90% of its oil needs. China imports roughly 50% of its oil requirements from the Gulf region, with 12% coming from Iran.

 

HERE’S THE RUB:

On February 28 Iran is attacked by Israel and the United States, ending the November 2025 ceasefire. Subsequently, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to all save “friendly” traffic. Missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel/United States continued throughout March, with the Strait mostly closed. On April 7, a two-week ceasefire was brokered. On April 17, Trump (“Enough is enough!”) insists on a similar ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. [Hezbollah militias were established following the invasion of southern Lebanon by Israel in the Nineteen-Eighties. They are the major military force in that country and the only one that can stand against Israeli aggression. Ed.] Following Trump’s peace initiative between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel, Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz, stating that the terms of the original November 2025 ceasefire between Iran and Israel/United States had finally been fulfilled (by the Lebanese ceasefire, something that was ignored by the Israelis). A positive move, right?...until Trump said he will not extend the U.S. moritorium of secondary sanctions on Iranian oil. He also sent naval ships to blockade Iranian ports. Sigh….

 

👉HERE'S THE REAL RUB nicely summarized, I must confess, by Google’s AI:

 

“Based on April 2026 reports, recovery from a blocked Strait of Hormuz will take months due to severe supply chain disruptions and backlog, even after the waterway reopens. While initial shipping traffic might stabilize within roughly two months, full recovery of Middle East exports is expected to take 12-18 months, with shipping schedules remaining disrupted for months.” (Google AI)

 

ANOTHER WAY of putting it: Each day that oil does not flow through the Strait, along with fertilizer, urea, LNG, diesel and airline fuels, aluminum and helium (though each will have separate metrics), for each day that oil in particular does not flow through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 20M bpd, several days (a week? More?) are required to get production and distribution back, and until that happens a short fall of 20% in the world's petrochemical energy supply, with all the cascading effects throughout the world's economies that will entail, will become the new normal for some time. Another month of restricted passage (not including damage done to Iran’s and the Gulf State’s oil infrastructure in the meanwhile) may entail global oil shortages lasting several months. 

👉 Should this regional war go pear-shaped and Iran's civilian infrastructure and oil distribution network are attacked, Iran is capable, along with their Houthie allies in Yemen, of putting offline over one-third of the world's daily oil consumption!😱 

IF THIS BABY isn’t put to bed real soon, we’re going to end up in a world of hurt. Buckle Up, Amigos!  

 

 

CHEERS, JAKE. _____________________________________  

 

* American sanctions on Iranian oil shipments, along with Russia’s that are on the water as of March 11 would be lifted. The last of those ships carrying tens of millions of barrels of oil will soon reach their ports. Sanctions were lifted on Iranian (and Russian) oil to keep global oil markets stable and the price per barrel from inflating to the point where economies worldwide begin to wobble.

 

“The step was part of a series of measures launched by the Trump administration to quell skyrocketing energy prices following the start of the war on February 28, including a similar easing of sanctions on Russian oil at sea.” (Times of Israel)

 

TRUMP ALSO ANNOUNCED that the U.S. would blockade Iranian ports south of the Hormuz Strait (an act of war according to international law), part of his usual negotiating tactic of “maximum pressure”, to make Iran concede. We’ll see who yells “uncle” first. Predictably, Iran responded to Trump’s latest pressure tactic by again closing the Strait of Hormuz. Good job, Donald.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED that U.S. naval vessels operating in the Gulf of Oman, some distance from Iran’s coastline, will be interdicting Iranian shipping to and from the Persian state’s ports. Or at least they’ll try.

Oil aboard Russian tankers on the water will see an extension of the American moritorium on secondary sanctions. Eliminating secondary sanctions allows Russian oil to be sold to countries without financial penalties accruing to the importer. Iran is not so lucky in this matter. 

 

1. Patrick Henningsen, in a recent talk on his podcast, Sunday Wire, suggests Trump and Netanyahu are reading from the same playbook, that there is no disagreement between them in terms of goals or tactics. When Trump gave a gruff ‘cease and desist’ order for the Israeli president to stop his attacks on Lebanon, Netanyahu ignored him though he did slow down for a day or so. But it’s all show—a kabuki theatre, Patrick says, designed to flood the media space with contradictory statements and false narratives, disguising how much Zionist and Imperial objectives overlap. For example, Trump and “Bibi” both want Iran gone as a nation state and they play good cop-bad cop games to disguise this fact. More and more though, Trump will drop a turd in the punchbowl and just say whatever comes to the surface in his increasingly fried brain like: “We’ll just have to drop more bombs” or “I want the oil”.  

Out of the mouths of babes and sundowners! 

 

“Gazafication”— “Refers to the extension of Israeli military tactics like siege, intense bombardment, destruction of infrastructure, and forced displacement used in the Gaza Strip to other areas, mostly notably the West Bank. It describes a process of creating “coercive environments” that make areas unlivable for Palestinians through surveillance, confinement to enclaves, and destruction of civilian life.” (Google AI)