RANT: STRAITEN UP AND FLY RIGHT, AMERICA!

   

Hotel Burgenstock Luceren, Switzerland

YOU KNOW HOW IT IS when you think—watching Trump’s clown car of state beetling off a cliff—you say, heck, I could run the U.S. better than the incompetent current occupant of the White House. In fact, I offer my services—free of charge—to our great neighbour to the south, hoping my lack of citizenship and experience managing anything larger than my pocketbook will be overlooked. So, we’ll see how that goes.

BUT ON AN EVEN MORE RIDICULOUS NOTE, President Trump has once more claimed a peace deal with Iran is imminent, with just some final touches to be ironed out. Great! The price of oil falls and the stock market rises with news of an end to hostilities and a promised return to business as usual. Again. Dear reader, if Trump’s latest pronouncement gives you whiplash and a case of déjà vu, join the crowd. We’ve heard all this from the American president before, thirty-eight times before, as a matter of fact, since the Iran war reignited on February 28, this year. Only scammers and leeches on Wall Street pay any attention to The Donald’s divinations; they know it’s a con and they do their damndest to profit from the presidential pearls of wisdom as they ride to riches on the stock market’s up and down fluctuations. Moneymoneymoney! Most normal people ignore Trumpian proclamations like elevator music or those squeegee-wielding pedlars patrolling our summertime crosswalks and stoplights.

👉BUT what a difference these last few days make! Peace talks in Islamabad between the Americans and Iranians have borne fruit with the June 17 signing of an MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) initiating the start of peace talks to resolve the American/Israeli-Iranian War. We must remember that an MoU is not a treaty, nor is it a ceasefire. It is a diplomatic note allowing a respite from attacks by either side for a sixty-day period while the hard work of finalizing a “deal” the Americans can live with, without having to eat too much crow, and one that the Iranians can trust. Not an easy bridge to build, I must say.

There are fourteen points to the document, with particularly thorny issues to be resolved that include the closing American bases in the Gulf states fronting Iran across the Persian Gulf (most were evacuated and subsequently destroyed by Iranian missiles in the early weeks of the war following the February 28 launch of hostilities by U.S. and Israeli forces). There are negotiations around compensation to Iran for damages it incurred during the 110 days of the conflict as well as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic. Iran will end its blockade* in tandem with America removing its blockade of Iranian shipping. Point One of the MoU is the most difficult needle to thread, namely Iran’s insistence that cessation of hostilities "on all fronts” including Lebanon.

RECALL that Israel has been waging an illegal war of aggression against Hezbollah, the chief militia in Lebanon challenging Israeli aggression that seeks to absorb about one-fifth of the country into “Greater Israel”. Hezbollah acts to defend Lebanese territory because the Lebanese army and government have been mostly neutered by Israel and the United States. Hezbollah is an Iranian ally and the MoU, signed “remotely” on Wednesday by the American and Iranian presidents, stipulates Israel must cease and desist and withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon. President Trump had digitally inked his approval (pending final negotiations) that is diametrically opposed by Israel that wishes to continue its conquest of southern Lebanon unabated. Iran has stated continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah means the slow-walk of peace talks convening in Switzerland and the closing of the Straits of Hormuz.¹  

Israel does not want there to be a successful treaty ending hostilities between the United States and Iran, that much is obvious by Friday’s bombing of Lebanon which claimed almost thirty lives. Israel will do its best to wreck the talks and force the Americans to restart the war. I was surprised by the welcome news of serious negotiations (the U.S. State Department has sent 300 diplomats, intelligence officials, and technical experts to talks scheduled to begin on Friday.² Iran will send seventy. Point being, that all the necessary personnel will be available to craft the MoU’s goals into a working treaty. Vice President Vance will head up the American delegation.

👉Trump, for his part, must put pressure on the Netanyahu government to stand down. We’ll see who blinks first in their pissing contest. If Trump does not get a deal and the Straits remain hopelessly choked off, Americans will see dramatic price rises in gasoline and other goods. The pain caused by a shuttered Hormuz Strait will trigger a global recession, possibly even a depression along the lines of the one experienced during the 1930s. Will Trump grow a pair and use the very real influence he has over Israel—withholding financial, military and diplomatic supports without which Israel could not conduct its wars of aggression—and curb the pariah state’s  military adventures in the Levant? Israel is the wild card in all this. Note that the MoU is between the United States and Iran. Not Israel. There is some suggestion that Netanyahu was caught flat-footed by the MoU’s fourteen-point proposed treaty plan and Trump signing off on it. Thus far Israel does not seem inclined to stop its aggression in Lebanon and elsewhere. But, we’ll see what the next few days will bring.

 

THIS IS INTERESTING: Recall two, three months ago the major talking points of mainstream pundits and from the Trump administration was of Iran signing onto a new nuclear deal, giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium and cancelling its nuclear programs, both civilian and military. Or else! Next in line was limits on Iran’s missile holdings. They must comply! Lots of strum und drang around these two.  Now, the focus is on reopening the Straits of Hormuz and getting oil and other commodities to market a.s.a.p. Because of its blockade, Iran has found the leverage to take the Americans down a peg or two and compel the superpower to reach a negotiated settlement, one that Iran can live with. Seemingly, Iran’s blockade of the Straits, with its global ramifications looming ever-larger “concentrates the mind” of the American president, “wonderfully.”     

👉ON Thursday, complying with the MoU, the American blockade of Iranian shipping was lifted.

👉ON Friday Iran announced it would lift fees for ships passing through the Straits for the duration of the 60-day negotiation cycle which was due to start on Friday.³

  

👉[UPDATE: As of this writing the initial meeting between American and Iranian delegates has taken place on Sunday in Lucerne, Switzerland. The American delegation was headed by VP Vance, but for some reason the dynamic duo of Kushner and Witkoff were included as part of the U.S. team. These two bozos have failed at every diplomatic mission they've been on, and the Iranians don't trust them--recall last June how the "Twelve Day War" was launched just as peace negotiations with Witkoff and Kushner were taking place in a transparent bid to 'sucker punch' the Iranians. 

ADDITIONALLY, there is some confusion as to whether the Hormuz Strait is open or not. They were closed, apparently by Iran, as a consequence of Israel's continuing bombardments in Lebanon. Will Israeli war-making scuttle the talks? After all, Iran has demanded Israel cease and desist it's aggressions against Lebanon's Hezbollah militia as well as against the Iranian homeland. Of course, Trump tweets his usual threats, blahblahblah, so we'll wait and see if round two of the talks will continue as scheduled.]

  

👉IT'S not yet time for popping champagne corks, not by a long shot. Let’s hope all this initial dancing around the negotiating table is just political jitters and doesn’t turn into a zero-sum game of musical chairs. Buckle the fuck up, people!

 

 

FROM THE FILES OF "THE CARNIVAL TIMES"--

THE EVER-P0PULAR COLUMN “I DON’T BELIEVE

WHAT I JUST READ!”👇

 

HERE’S SOMETHING that should give all of us pause: Recent statements by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich:

“With all due respect to the Americans, Israel must make it clear to the entire world that the blood of our sons and the security of our citizens are not forfeit. All of Lebanon must burn,” he wrote.

“Our supreme duty is to protect the citizens of Israel and the soldiers of the IDF, and this commitment takes precedence over every other consideration,” he added.

Ben-Gvir noted he had conveyed his position directly to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “I told the Prime Minister, even in our private meetings: For every tear of an Israeli mother, a thousand Lebanese mothers must weep.”

Calling for a harsher attack, he added that in the Middle East it was necessary to “go berserk. To obliterate. To crush the terror.”

Another extremist minister, Bezalel Smotrich, wrote on X, “A tough morning... Time to speak with fire. To open the gates of hell.”

 

THE ABOVE ARE MEMBERS of the Israeli government. Their language is beyond the pale of reasoned, political discourse and is immersed in the language, tropes and emotionalism of fascism. One could easily imagine such words atop the gates at Auschwitz. They are part of the Israeli cabinet which leads a government whose military possesses nuclear weapons. With such statesmen at the helm, what could possibly go wrong?

 

CHEERS, JAKE.

 

* THERE ARE numerous states that have already negotiated (i.e. paid Iran toll fees to use the Strait; still, there is a major backlog of ships yet to transit the vital chokepoint.

1. Point One of the MoU presumes America will curb its ‘attack dog’ in West Asia (Middle East) and bring Israel to heel. It remains to be seen whether Trump has the cojones to stand up to Netanyahu and the Israeli lobby in the United States (and perhaps the threat of incriminating Epstein files being released which may be in the possession of Israel’s Mossad or deep state operators in the U.S.).

2. I told you so, I told you so… The Swiss talks have been postponed ostensively due to scheduling issues with VP Vance but more likely because of Israel’s continued bombing of southern Lebanon after Wednesday’s digital inking of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by President Trump and Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Netanyahu, for his part, refuses to pull his troops out of Lebanon and vows to continue what critics are calling his ‘Gazafication’ of Lebanese villages south of the Litani River. Iran postponed sending its delegation to Switzerland, likely in response to the on-going aggression perpetuated by the IDF (Israeli Defence Force).  As stated in the above👆 UPDATE, the opening session of peace talks in Switzerland were held on Sunday.       

3. Personally, I think Iran is lifting its foot off the American neck prematurely. A growing oil-shortage crisis that will become obvious even to the most oblivious Western government, including the United States, will be hitting hard this fall. NatGas shortages, high prices at the pump, lower farm yields (from a lack of fossil fuel feedstocks for fertilizers and pesticides), issues with computer chip manufacturing because of a lack of Persian Gulf helium (Helium!? Who knew?) along with global manufacturing, shipping, and supply chains that will all be affected by the outcome of the Swiss talks. The looming crises may encourage the American president to make a deal with Iran, pronto. How long the talks will take, is anyone’s guess.