RANT: SLIDING DOWN A SLIPPERY SLOPE

  

A SHORT NOTE ABOUT HOW EVERYTHING seems to be going faster and faster these days, one example being the rapid deterioration of the United States, with its hollowed-out industrial base (all those jobs and businesses going over seas to low wage countries) and the incredible debt burden now standing at over twenty trillion dollars and nearly a trillion per year in interest payments! As well, the decline of the dollar as the global currency of trade, once a given in the decades following WWII is on the ropes. Now, more and more countries are using local currencies to evade the financial strictures^* imposed on them by the United States and its 'weaponized' dollar. 

👉The system of global trade and finance, brought into being during the 1944 Bretton Woods¹ summit where the post war years were envisioned and shaped, that system is over, as many commetators suggest. It's another data point exposing the failing American empire as it loses it financial mojo, along with its vaunted military might, as seen with its current military fiasco venture in the Persian Gulf. Again, the emperor or the empire has no clothes and everyone can see behind the curtain whose really in charge.

MOST TRAGICALLY, and most costly in blood and treasure (on all sides) was the “War on Terror” begun in in the  shadow of 9/11 during the Bush presidency. America spent trillions of dollars over nearly two decades in failed wars of choice halfway around the world. The cost of these wars has all but bankrupted the country.

  

AS WE GO FORWARD, marching bravely towards our imagined future, we fail to realize that the carpet of the past behind us is rolling up ever faster, what with nuclear Armageddon or the climate crisis increasingly at pace with our forward march. And when we finally see, too late of course, that the past is catching up to us, we then sprint forward in a desperate attempt to outrun the consequences of our actions. Eventually we’ll either run out of carpet or be rolled up entirely and thrown into the dustbin of history unless we heed the lessons of those who have gone before us whereby civilizations of one sort or another, large or small, do indeed come to an end, strangled to death by hubris or willful blindness, or both. 

And endings are rougher than beginnings because there is a lot to lose empire-wise. People and politicians cling to things that are precious to them and hold fast against the winds of change as they scour away everything, or most everthing, that remains entrenched and unwilling to change.  The question is: Will we remain victims of the coming changes or will we adapt and change ourselves? Only time will tell.

 

SOME SAY, tongue in cheek mostly, that the next species to emerge into sentience and roam the world will be racoons (Procyon lotor), a mammalian example of creatures that can survive in most environments, especially where there are garbage bins to tip over. Personally, I’d like to see whales, another mammalian, especially friendly Grays (Eschrichtius robustus) or giant Blues (Megaptera novaeangliae), take the lead on things as they leap forward into conscious self-awareness—though maybe they’re already there, aware of themselves, aware of us as they patiently wait in deep ocean waters for the handoff, so to speak, from Homo sapiens when we crash and burn and go down the tube, nuclear Armageddon or the climate crisis being the top two contenders that may bring about our demise. (There are more waiting in the wings, of course). 

👉Thus, we race desperately forward to our imagined future, not heeding the looming consequences stemming from our actions, both past and present, that doggedly follow us. We will need to endure those consequences, to reap what we have sown, and pay our debts in the decades ahead, debts to the world we share with so many living beings (plant and animal alike). We must pay our debts to fellow humans we have abused, past and present. We must pay our debts to the environment, to our world and to Gaia, and those debts must be paid in full. 

  

Cheers, Jake. _______________________________________ 

 

* “The Bretton Woods Agreement was a 1944 pact that set up a new global system of fixed exchange rates tied to the U.S. dollar and gold.” (Investopia) Bretton Woods is in the state of New Hampshire.

 

1. One example being the United States using “sanctions” which are illegal under international law because they have been imposed unilaterally by the US and not approved by the United Nations or other international regulatory bodies. 

👉Currently, some thirty countries (Canada, too!) are under sanctions of one sort or another imposed on them by the US administration, which, in the end primarily benefit rich oligarchs at the expense of the rest of us. {Nice. Ed.] 

Nearly one-third of the world's population, nearly 2.8-billion people are under US sanctions, which is an extraordinary number and a symptom of American hubris and the blind faith most of its citizens and elites share, namely that their country acts as a benign entity in its role as “global hegemon”, a role that was activated in the early 1990s when the Soviet Union collapsed and the “Cold War” ended, leaving the door open for America to emerge as the world’s sole “superpower”. Today, that role is being challenged by an increasing number of countries that also are turning their backs on the US dollar and the heavy hand of the United States that imposes its order as ‘top dog’ in the world. 

 

                                               AT THE CLINIC WITH A JOB TO DO

(Gratuitous sexual humour. Enjoy.😏) 

 

 

RANT: WARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWAR

 

 

“April is the cruellest month, breeding

Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing-

Memory and desire, stirring

Dull roots with spring rain”

(line 1-4, The Wasteland, T. S. Eliot)

 

LET’S HOPE OUR APRIL is less cruel than Eliot’s was when he published The Wasteland in 1922, following those long, broken years after World War One. SO FAR in West Asia, the Strait of Hormuz has apparently been reopened to all ‘friendly’ traffic and peace…oh, wait. That was yesterday. Today, apparently, it’s closed again to all, or mostly all, traffic, potentially stopping 20% of global oil reserves from reaching their markets. Originally, the Iranians had closed the maritime ‘choke point’ in response to the February 28 attacks by the United States and Israel which ended the November 2025 ceasefire.

Since February 28, the Iranians have launched devastating counterattacks against Israel, as well as Gulf Arab states hosting American military bases or allowing overflights of American and Israeli warplanes.

 

AFTER WEEKS OF intense bombing and missile attacks from both sides, a two-week ceasefire was negotiated and went into effect April 7. In the following days, Trump insisted there also be a ceasefire to temporarily end Israel’s ferocious attacks on Hezbollah militia (Iran’s ally). Over 2,000 Lebanese were killed, 6,000 injured, and nearly one-million have been displaced from southern Lebanon since March 1.  Not to give Donald Trump any more credit he doesn’t deserve, but here he may have ‘boxed the ears’ of the Israelis to include the Lebanon deal, though Israel says it retains the right to launch “defensive” attacks (and it continues its scaled-back, for now, ‘Gazafication’ of southern Lebanon, irrespective of what the feckless American president says). On a Truth Social post, Trump said: “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so. Enough is enough!” (April 17)

 

IRAN, responding favourably to Trump’s apparent arm-twisting of the Israelis¹ to make them honour 😂 a ceasefire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, opened the Strait to commercial shipping.

LATER THAT SAME DAY Trump announced he would not be extending sanctions relief* on exported Iranian oil he'd initiated with Iran at the same time he did for Russian oil “on the water” to keep global oil markets relatively ‘topped up’ and prices as low as possible. He also announced, on April 17, a blockade of Iranian ports along Iran’s southern coast beyond the Strait of Hormuz, and for those Iranian ships transiting to and from the Strait (illegal under international law, but who’s counting?). The next day, Saturday April 18, Iran closed the Strait once more in response to this skullduggery by the U.S. 

ON SUNDAY, an American warship crippled and boarded a commercial vessel attempting to run the American blockade in the Sea of Oman as it transited to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. The ship carried cargo from China. Q: Is that why the ship was stopped, because it was from China? America wanted to peak 'under the hood' to see what China was sending Iran?Who knows?

 

NOTE: The Iran War ceasefire, in effect since April 7, is due to expire on Wednesday. Trump said the Americans were sending a crackerjack negotiating team (Not! It’s the same losers as before—Vance, Witkoff and Kushner) to Islamabad, I guess hoping for another marathon negotiation to be hammered out before Wednesday's ceasefire deadline. As of this writing, Iran has not confirmed it is sending a negotiating team. Frankly, why should they? The American "B-Team" (at best) shows one and all that the United States is not serious about substantive negotiations and they are there just for show. It's a performance. Nothing more.

I'M GETTING WHIPLASH with all the toing and froing from the American president. Is this leadership? Or untreated ADHD? We have indeed been press-ganged aboard the SS Donald Trump. Batten down the hatches, Maties!

 

ON A RELATED TOPIC, Larry Johnson, a former CIA officer who writes at Sonar21.com, said during an interview on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive podcast that the real effects of the turmoil in the Persian Gulf on world oil supplies are only now about to be felt. Other economies are adopting rationing of their domestic oil reserves, or tax relief on gasoline etc. Canada has recently waived federal excise taxes on gasoline, diesel and aviation fuels until Labour Day. Prices of petroleum products have gone up around the world because oil is a globally traded commodity and is sold within an international price range, though as an oil producer, our domestic refineries here in Canada are well-stocked. Nevertheless, I noted a 35-cent per litre increase in gasoline at the pumps over last week. Other countries are less advantaged, like Japan which imports over 90% of its oil needs. China imports roughly 50% of its oil requirements from the Gulf region, with 12% coming from Iran.

 

HERE’S THE RUB:

On February 28 Iran is attacked by Israel and the United States, ending the November 2025 ceasefire. Subsequently, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to all save “friendly” traffic. Missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel/United States continued throughout March, with the Strait mostly closed. On April 7, a two-week ceasefire was brokered. On April 17, Trump (“Enough is enough!”) insists on a similar ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. [Hezbollah militias were established following the invasion of southern Lebanon by Israel in the Nineteen-Eighties. They are the major military force in that country and the only one that can stand against Israeli aggression. Ed.] Following Trump’s peace initiative between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel, Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz, stating that the terms of the original November 2025 ceasefire between Iran and Israel/United States had finally been fulfilled (by the Lebanese ceasefire, something that was ignored by the Israelis). A positive move, right?...until Trump said he will not extend the U.S. moritorium of secondary sanctions on Iranian oil. He also sent naval ships to blockade Iranian ports. Sigh….

 

👉HERE'S THE REAL RUB nicely summarized, I must confess, by Google’s AI:

 

“Based on April 2026 reports, recovery from a blocked Strait of Hormuz will take months due to severe supply chain disruptions and backlog, even after the waterway reopens. While initial shipping traffic might stabilize within roughly two months, full recovery of Middle East exports is expected to take 12-18 months, with shipping schedules remaining disrupted for months.” (Google AI)

 

ANOTHER WAY of putting it: Each day that oil does not flow through the Strait, along with fertilizer, urea, LNG, diesel and airline fuels, aluminum and helium (though each will have separate metrics), for each day that oil in particular does not flow through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 20M bpd, several days (a week? More?) are required to get production and distribution back, and until that happens a short fall of 20% in the world's petrochemical energy supply, with all the cascading effects throughout the world's economies that will entail, will become the new normal for some time. Another month of restricted passage (not including damage done to Iran’s and the Gulf State’s oil infrastructure in the meanwhile) may entail global oil shortages lasting several months. 

👉 Should this regional war go pear-shaped and Iran's civilian infrastructure and oil distribution network are attacked, Iran is capable, along with their Houthie allies in Yemen, of putting offline over one-third of the world's daily oil consumption!😱 

IF THIS BABY isn’t put to bed real soon, we’re going to end up in a world of hurt. Buckle Up, Amigos!  

 

 

CHEERS, JAKE. _____________________________________  

 

* American sanctions on Iranian oil shipments, along with Russia’s that are on the water as of March 11 would be lifted. The last of those ships carrying tens of millions of barrels of oil will soon reach their ports. Sanctions were lifted on Iranian (and Russian) oil to keep global oil markets stable and the price per barrel from inflating to the point where economies worldwide begin to wobble.

 

“The step was part of a series of measures launched by the Trump administration to quell skyrocketing energy prices following the start of the war on February 28, including a similar easing of sanctions on Russian oil at sea.” (Times of Israel)

 

TRUMP ALSO ANNOUNCED that the U.S. would blockade Iranian ports south of the Hormuz Strait (an act of war according to international law), part of his usual negotiating tactic of “maximum pressure”, to make Iran concede. We’ll see who yells “uncle” first. Predictably, Iran responded to Trump’s latest pressure tactic by again closing the Strait of Hormuz. Good job, Donald.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED that U.S. naval vessels operating in the Gulf of Oman, some distance from Iran’s coastline, will be interdicting Iranian shipping to and from the Persian state’s ports. Or at least they’ll try.

Oil aboard Russian tankers on the water will see an extension of the American moritorium on secondary sanctions. Eliminating secondary sanctions allows Russian oil to be sold to countries without financial penalties accruing to the importer. Iran is not so lucky in this matter. 

 

1. Patrick Henningsen, in a recent talk on his podcast, Sunday Wire, suggests Trump and Netanyahu are reading from the same playbook, that there is no disagreement between them in terms of goals or tactics. When Trump gave a gruff ‘cease and desist’ order for the Israeli president to stop his attacks on Lebanon, Netanyahu ignored him though he did slow down for a day or so. But it’s all show—a kabuki theatre, Patrick says, designed to flood the media space with contradictory statements and false narratives, disguising how much Zionist and Imperial objectives overlap. For example, Trump and “Bibi” both want Iran gone as a nation state and they play good cop-bad cop games to disguise this fact. More and more though, Trump will drop a turd in the punchbowl and just say whatever comes to the surface in his increasingly fried brain like: “We’ll just have to drop more bombs” or “I want the oil”.  

Out of the mouths of babes and sundowners! 

 

“Gazafication”— “Refers to the extension of Israeli military tactics like siege, intense bombardment, destruction of infrastructure, and forced displacement used in the Gaza Strip to other areas, mostly notably the West Bank. It describes a process of creating “coercive environments” that make areas unlivable for Palestinians through surveillance, confinement to enclaves, and destruction of civilian life.” (Google AI)

 

 

 

RANT: OILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOIOILOILOILOILOILOILOIOILOILOILOILOIL

   

HERE’S SOMETHING TO CONSIDER: Will the closure of the Hormuz Strait by Iran to countries predominately aligned with American interests really cause serious disruptions for the economies of importing nations? Yes, potentially, as this chart from the JP Morgan banking group shows.👇The hashed circles display the chief importing countries in each region. The dates outlined for the various countries within each circle indicates the date when waterborne deliveries of crude oil will stop, i,e., when all the tankers currently at sea arrive at their destination and discharge their cargo. For example, deliveries from the Persian Gulf to the EU will mostly stop by April 10. China, which imports 5.2-million barrels per day (bpd) of oil will see its source of Persian Gulf crude cease around April 1 [That’s no joke! Ed.]

 

After that, the Chinese will have to use their strategic oil reserves to fuel  their economy or else source oil from other producers, and Russia would be the obvious place for it to pick up any shortfall in imports. Either way China is well-placed to deal with disruptions to its supply lines in the Gulf. It has between 80 to 120 days of reserves, with total inventories of over one-billion barrels to be released into the economy as needed.* SOUTH KOREA is prepared for a shutdown of Persian Gulf oil with its strategic reserves of public and private holdings. It has between 200 to 254 days of crude in its stockpiles. On the other hand, the PHILIPPINES has no formal, strategic oil reserves. It gets 95% of its daily fuel from 'just-in-time' imports, and 25% of those imports coming from the Persian Gulf. It's economy is able to last 4-5 weeks before it runs out of petroleum and distillates. If the Gulf remains closed for an indefinite period of time, the Philippines will have to obtain alternate sources of oil, no doubt more expensive and within a shorter timeframe than, say, China or South Korea. Already, nations are talking about rationing, asking their populations to conserve fuel whenever possible, with further restrictions down the road.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING to see how Japan deals without Gulf oil upon which it depends for 95% of its energy imports with 90% coming through the straits of Hormuz. (Japan has zilch oil deposits on its territory). Perhaps it will make nice with the Russians and do some business together.

 

Asia, overall, will be hit hard by any disruption of Persian Gulf oil, importing, as it does, 84% of its fuel that's delivered via the Hormuz Strait and 83% of its LNG (Liquified Natural Gas).¹ EVEN IF the war ended today, there would still be repercussions from closing the Straits, and global supply chains in many sectors will be affected. High gasoline prices in America is one indicator, which is why the Trump administration quietly dropped its illegal tariffs on Iranian and Russian oil shipments, in an bid to keep global stocks topped-up with enough crude to keep prices as low as possible. 

IN MARCH, the U.S. released 172-million barrels of crude. In addition, the IEA (International Energy Agency), a 32-member nation organisation that provides analysis, data, policy recommendations and real-world solutions for energy related problems, released 400-million barrels from its emergency reserves, also in March, for the same purpose—to keep oil prices down. How long this can continue is anyone’s guess.

👉BUT, IF YOU HADN’T STARTED THIS FUCKING, STUPID WAR oil would still be in the price range that modern economies can handle, well below one-hundred-dollars per barrel, with adequate flows keeping everybody well lubed, ready and steady!😟

    

CHEERS, JAKE. _____________________________________

 

* If things go pear-shaped, as they well might, then there will not only be delivery problems with oil from the Persian Gulf but also production problems. If attacks are made to Iran’s oil infrastructure, this would almost certainly trigger a proportionate response from Iran against all Gulf countries it is in conflict with, damaging their oil fields, ports, and storage facilities in kind. Note that approximately 25% of global seaborne traffic in oil originates from the Gulf, most of it destined for Asian markets. An attack on Iran’s Kharg Island, which has extensive oil facilities, would almost certainly precipitate a destabilizing tit-for-tat escalation of the conflict.

 

¹ INTERESTING NOTE: A couple of days ago, a China bound oil tanker the Al Salmi was hit by a drone as it was leaving Dubai waters. It was presumably fired on by Iran. Perhaps it was attacked because it was a Kuwaiti-registered vessel and therefore considered property of a hostile nation and a legitimate target for Iran. Or, perhaps the captain of the vessel refused to pay the new transit fee. Or, maybe it was a "false flag" attack designed to throw shade on Iran and escalate the conflict. Who knows; it's "fog of war" time again. 

Iran has begun charging transit fees for all vessels passing through the Straits, a practice that will net them billions annually. So it goes.

 

  

RANT: THE CONTINENTAL BUMP AND GRIND!

   

A BIT OF GOOD NEWS for a change as West Asia (Middle East) heats up with extended air campaigns from both sides of the Persian Gulf. In addition, U.S. marine contingents are arriving in the region and reservists at home have been notified their services may be required. It looks like a go for some kind of ground invasion, possibly to open the Straits of Hormuz which has been closed to American and allied fleets. We may see American (and Israeli) troops engaging with Iranian troops by the weekend.😖

👉But, what’s the good news, you ask. Well, it’s all about location, location, location. Every realtor’s wet dream. The Persian Gulf is closing permanently with the help of mother nature and her tectonic plates. The Arabian Plate is shifting towards Eurasia and in three-million-years or so it will pinch off the entrance to the gulf, making it an inland sea that will eventually evaporate, leaving both sides on the same side and in peace. Can’t argue with geology. Stay tuned.*

 

 

CHEERS, JAKE.

 ________________________________________

* Here, I must sound the alarm for oil producers and extractors in region. The crashing together of the Arabian and Asian tectonic plates spells the end for the vast petroleum reserves in the Gulf, with excessive heat and pressure the main culprits in degrading the trapped hydrocarbons. So, best get all the oil out before it’s too late!