RANT: WARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWARPEACEWAR

 

 

“April is the cruellest month, breeding

Lilacs out of the dead land, mixing-

Memory and desire, stirring

Dull roots with spring rain”

(line 1-4, The Wasteland, T. S. Eliot)

 

LET’S HOPE OUR APRIL is less cruel than Eliot’s was when he published The Wasteland in 1922, following those long, broken years after World War One. SO FAR in West Asia, the Strait of Hormuz has apparently been reopened to all ‘friendly’ traffic and peace…oh, wait. That was yesterday. Today, apparently, it’s closed again to all, or mostly all, traffic, potentially stopping 20% of global oil reserves from reaching their markets. Originally, the Iranians had closed the maritime ‘choke point’ in response to the February 28 attacks by the United States and Israel which ended the November 2025 ceasefire.

Since February 28, the Iranians have launched devastating counterattacks against Israel, as well as Gulf Arab states hosting American military bases or allowing overflights of American and Israeli warplanes.

 

AFTER WEEKS OF intense bombing and missile attacks from both sides, a two-week ceasefire was negotiated and went into effect April 7. In the following days, Trump insisted there also be a ceasefire to temporarily end Israel’s ferocious attacks on Hezbollah militia (Iran’s ally). Over 2,000 Lebanese were killed, 6,000 injured, and nearly one-million have been displaced from southern Lebanon since March 1.  Not to give Donald Trump any more credit he doesn’t deserve, but here he may have ‘boxed the ears’ of the Israelis to include the Lebanon deal, though Israel says it retains the right to launch “defensive” attacks (and it continues its scaled-back, for now, ‘Gazafication’ of southern Lebanon, irrespective of what the feckless American president says). On a Truth Social post, Trump said: “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so. Enough is enough!” (April 17)

 

IRAN, responding favourably to Trump’s apparent arm-twisting of the Israelis¹ to make them honour 😂 a ceasefire with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, opened the Strait to commercial shipping.

LATER THAT SAME DAY Trump announced he would not be extending sanctions relief* on exported Iranian oil he'd initiated with Iran at the same time he did for Russian oil “on the water” to keep global oil markets relatively ‘topped up’ and prices as low as possible. He also announced, on April 17, a blockade of Iranian ports along Iran’s southern coast beyond the Strait of Hormuz, and for those Iranian ships transiting to and from the Strait (illegal under international law, but who’s counting?). The next day, Saturday April 18, Iran closed the Strait once more in response to this skullduggery by the U.S. 

ON SUNDAY, an American warship crippled and boarded a commercial vessel attempting to run the American blockade in the Sea of Oman as it transited to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. The ship carried cargo from China. Q: Is that why the ship was stopped, because it was from China? America wanted to peak 'under the hood' to see what China was sending Iran?Who knows?

 

NOTE: The Iran War ceasefire, in effect since April 7, is due to expire on Wednesday. Trump said the Americans were sending a crackerjack negotiating team (Not! It’s the same losers as before—Vance, Witkoff and Kushner) to Islamabad, I guess hoping for another marathon negotiation to be hammered out before Wednesday's ceasefire deadline. As of this writing, Iran has not confirmed it is sending a negotiating team. Frankly, why should they? The American "B-Team" (at best) shows one and all that the United States is not serious about substantive negotiations and they are there just for show. It's a performance. Nothing more.

I'M GETTING WHIPLASH with all the toing and froing from the American president. Is this leadership? Or untreated ADHD? We have indeed been press-ganged aboard the SS Donald Trump. Batten down the hatches, Maties!

 

ON A RELATED TOPIC, Larry Johnson, a former CIA officer who writes at Sonar21.com, said during an interview on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive podcast that the real effects of the turmoil in the Persian Gulf on world oil supplies are only now about to be felt. Other economies are adopting rationing of their domestic oil reserves, or tax relief on gasoline etc. Canada has recently waived federal excise taxes on gasoline, diesel and aviation fuels until Labour Day. Prices of petroleum products have gone up around the world because oil is a globally traded commodity and is sold within an international price range, though as an oil producer, our domestic refineries here in Canada are well-stocked. Nevertheless, I noted a 35-cent per litre increase in gasoline at the pumps over last week. Other countries are less advantaged, like Japan which imports over 90% of its oil needs. China imports roughly 50% of its oil requirements from the Gulf region, with 12% coming from Iran.

 

HERE’S THE RUB:

On February 28 Iran is attacked by Israel and the United States, ending the November 2025 ceasefire. Subsequently, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz to all save “friendly” traffic. Missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel/United States continued throughout March, with the Strait mostly closed. On April 7, a two-week ceasefire was brokered. On April 17, Trump (“Enough is enough!”) insists on a similar ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. [Hezbollah militias were established following the invasion of southern Lebanon by Israel in the Nineteen-Eighties. They are the major military force in that country and the only one that can stand against Israeli aggression. Ed.] Following Trump’s peace initiative between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel, Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz, stating that the terms of the original November 2025 ceasefire between Iran and Israel/United States had finally been fulfilled (by the Lebanese ceasefire, something that was ignored by the Israelis). A positive move, right?...until Trump said he will not extend the U.S. moritorium of secondary sanctions on Iranian oil. He also sent naval ships to blockade Iranian ports. Sigh….

 

👉HERE'S THE REAL RUB nicely summarized, I must confess, by Google’s AI:

 

“Based on April 2026 reports, recovery from a blocked Strait of Hormuz will take months due to severe supply chain disruptions and backlog, even after the waterway reopens. While initial shipping traffic might stabilize within roughly two months, full recovery of Middle East exports is expected to take 12-18 months, with shipping schedules remaining disrupted for months.” (Google AI)

 

ANOTHER WAY of putting it: Each day that oil does not flow through the Strait, along with fertilizer, urea, LNG, diesel and airline fuels, aluminum and helium (though each will have separate metrics), for each day that oil in particular does not flow through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 20M bpd, several days (a week? More?) are required to get production and distribution back, and until that happens a short fall of 20% in the world's petrochemical energy supply, with all the cascading effects throughout the world's economies that will entail, will become the new normal for some time. Another month of restricted passage (not including damage done to Iran’s and the Gulf State’s oil infrastructure in the meanwhile) may entail global oil shortages lasting several months. 

👉 Should this regional war go pear-shaped and Iran's civilian infrastructure and oil distribution network are attacked, Iran is capable, along with their Houthie allies in Yemen, of putting offline over one-third of the world's daily oil consumption!😱 

IF THIS BABY isn’t put to bed real soon, we’re going to end up in a world of hurt. Buckle Up, Amigos!  

 

 

CHEERS, JAKE. _____________________________________  

 

* American sanctions on Iranian oil shipments, along with Russia’s that are on the water as of March 11 would be lifted. The last of those ships carrying tens of millions of barrels of oil will soon reach their ports. Sanctions were lifted on Iranian (and Russian) oil to keep global oil markets stable and the price per barrel from inflating to the point where economies worldwide begin to wobble.

 

“The step was part of a series of measures launched by the Trump administration to quell skyrocketing energy prices following the start of the war on February 28, including a similar easing of sanctions on Russian oil at sea.” (Times of Israel)

 

TRUMP ALSO ANNOUNCED that the U.S. would blockade Iranian ports south of the Hormuz Strait (an act of war according to international law), part of his usual negotiating tactic of “maximum pressure”, to make Iran concede. We’ll see who yells “uncle” first. Predictably, Iran responded to Trump’s latest pressure tactic by again closing the Strait of Hormuz. Good job, Donald.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED that U.S. naval vessels operating in the Gulf of Oman, some distance from Iran’s coastline, will be interdicting Iranian shipping to and from the Persian state’s ports. Or at least they’ll try.

Oil aboard Russian tankers on the water will see an extension of the American moritorium on secondary sanctions. Eliminating secondary sanctions allows Russian oil to be sold to countries without financial penalties accruing to the importer. Iran is not so lucky in this matter. 

 

1. Patrick Henningsen, in a recent talk on his podcast, Sunday Wire, suggests Trump and Netanyahu are reading from the same playbook, that there is no disagreement between them in terms of goals or tactics. When Trump gave a gruff ‘cease and desist’ order for the Israeli president to stop his attacks on Lebanon, Netanyahu ignored him though he did slow down for a day or so. But it’s all show—a kabuki theatre, Patrick says, designed to flood the media space with contradictory statements and false narratives, disguising how much Zionist and Imperial objectives overlap. For example, Trump and “Bibi” both want Iran gone as a nation state and they play good cop-bad cop games to disguise this fact. More and more though, Trump will drop a turd in the punchbowl and just say whatever comes to the surface in his increasingly fried brain like: “We’ll just have to drop more bombs” or “I want the oil”.  

Out of the mouths of babes and sundowners! 

 

“Gazafication”— “Refers to the extension of Israeli military tactics like siege, intense bombardment, destruction of infrastructure, and forced displacement used in the Gaza Strip to other areas, mostly notably the West Bank. It describes a process of creating “coercive environments” that make areas unlivable for Palestinians through surveillance, confinement to enclaves, and destruction of civilian life.” (Google AI)

 

 

 

RANT: WHAT'S A LITTLE OIL AMONG FRIENDS?

  

Get the New! and Improved! housewife-helper, K-Tell’s Trump-O-Manic!*

 

FRIENDS, watch how easily its blades shred any and all laws, rules of decorum and engagement, standards of statesmanship, international treaties, probity and diplomacy of all sorts. Its ergonomic design makes quick work of slicing and dicing those pesky treaties, agreements and contracts old and new. A must have for every authoritarian’s kitchen. On sale wherever fascism is on the march! Buy two and get the second one for half price! Going fast! Deal is good until Armageddon envelops the globe in a nuclear fireball. No refunds.

 

👉WELL, I GUESS most of us were relieved that TACO¹ Trump came through with his usual climb down from launching further missile and jet sorties against Iran on April 8/26. The two-week ceasefire is barely holding though. Israel, for its part, has redirected its war machine against Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza² but particularly Lebanon, where its kill rate, some days, is comparable to last year’s genocidal onslaught against the Palestinian population of Gaza. In Lebanon, over 2,000 have been killed, (including 166 children) and 6,800 wounded, since the start of March, with Israel giving Lebanon the ‘Gaza treatment’, levelling entire villages and ethnically cleansing the Lebanese ever northward with the goal of creating a DMZ south of the Litani River. Israeli bombardments of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, are meant to destabilize the country and compel the government to disarm the Hezbollah militias, something, if attempted, would probably lead to civil war, which would be just fine with the Israelis; a dysfunctional Lebanon is one less competitor in the Levant and they get to hover up Lebanon’s offshore oil and gas reserves, as well.👍 

 

TRUMP claims to have phoned Israeli PM Netanyahu asking him to scale back his attacks on Lebanon. Bibi apparently said ceasing IDF attacks on Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire deal. So, bombs away! Yada yada yada…😉 Israel has said it is currently holding talks with Lebanon on “disarming Hezbollah”. [Hezbollah militias, like Iran’s missilery, are the only defences strong enough to stand against Israel aggression. Ed.] We’ll see how that goes, but is there anyone who believes a single word uttered by these fucks?🙎 

 

IN THE MEANWHILE, US VP Vance went to Pakistan last weekend to hold talks with the Iranians. He brought along Trump’s son of a bitch-in-law Jared Kushner and Trump golfing buddy Steve Witkoff, both of whom shouldn’t be anywhere near a negotiating table—and were specifically not invited by Iran given their duplicitousness in previous negotiations that were performative and a cover to launch surprise attacks on Iran (last June and February 28, this year). After a marathon bargaining session, Vance left Islamabad having failed to reach an agreement with Tehran.  

 

WITH THINGS SHIFTING so swiftly, I thought I would wait until Armageddon to file a final report, but my better angel convinced me to note a few of the twists and turns in this increasing shit-show brought to you by the Washington Inepts (a.k.a. “the Epstein Class”) and their entourage:

 

👉RECALL THAT IRAN Iran closed the Straits of Hormuz following the February 28 surprise attack by Israel and the United States, allowing only friendly countries or countries that pay a ‘transit fee’ safe passage through the Strait. Obviously, America and its allies (including most of the Gulf Arab states that host American military bases, most of which have closed BTW, perhaps permanently, following Iranian bombardments) are mostly excluded from the Hormuz unless they make some sort of arrangement with the Iranians. 

Iran’s action in the Hormuz Strait interdicts approximately 20% of the world’s petroleum shipments causing oil prices to rise and stock markets to fall. The United States responded, after last weekend’s ceasefire talks failed, by ‘blockading the blockade’😂 saying it will stop all ships passing through the Hormuz, including ships paying their way, so as to further squeeze the Iranians. 

Question: Will the U.S. board and capture Chinese or Russian ships, or French or British vessels as they enter and emerge from the Strait? Are they that foolish? And do they plan to stop Iranian registered ships? NOTE: Iranian oil added to world oil supplies and is crucial in keeping oil prices down. Most of Iran’s oil infrastructure remains intact for this reason. And Trump initially allowed Iranian oil to be shipped throughout the war so there would be no oil shortages globally affecting gasoline prices, and anger voters at home. 

👉Will Trump target oil refineries and fields in Iran if the conflict erupts again? This would initiate Iranian bombardments of the Gulf States’ infrastructure in those countries that continue to host American military bases and allow their air space to be used by American and Israeli warplanes. If Gulf oil is cut off altogether, a global depression by the fall would be inevitable, perhaps one worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. 

IRAN HAD FOUR demands going into the the ceasefire between Iran and Israel/United States that went in force on April 8, wobbling like a bowlful of Jello on a train. Iran complained that Israel’s continued bombing of Lebanon was a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Israel said “Nah-uh” and Trump TACO-ed and did his usual nothing to restrain the Israelis. The Iranians brought up this issue up a major concern during the ceasefire talks with Vance.

 

Islamabad talks: Iran's major agenda items: 1. It has a right to enrich uranium to levels commensurate with use in a civilian nuclear industry. 2. Downsizing Iran’s missile force is unacceptable as Iran considers it a critical deterrent against attacks from Israel, a state that has (undeclared) nuclear weapons (between 90-200 warheads). 3. Return of Iranian frozen assets and removal of all sanctions that have for so long immiserated the Iranian population. 4. Accepting Iran’s sovereignty over the Hormuz Strait. These are Iran’s top four agenda items. There are others, including a cease-and-desist order stopping further Israeli aggression against Iran, but also their violence against Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank.

HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT Trump sent diplomatic lightweights instead of a professional negotiating team to Islamabad suggests the U.S. president didn’t expect any breakthroughs last weekend and never really wanted any. Instead, the Americans are spinning the narrative that Iran was uncooperative during the talks, in order to justify their own, illegal war against Iran. 

👉The Iranians came to the talks with few expectations and left with no illusions.

 

THE BLOCKADE is only days old and already economies around the world are shaky. A prolonged blockade of the Strait, along with the American ‘counter’ blockade—if that is even feasible—may lead to a global recession, even a depression if vital supplies of Gulf oil, natural gas, fertilizers, urea, helium³ etc., are not reestablished.😰

 

The ceasefire is set to end next week, and the Iran War will probably reignite. More fun for West Asia, and for us too. So, drop your cocks and grab your socks! Hold onto your hats, too!

 

 

CHEERS, JAKE. _______________________________________________________

 

* Keep away from pets and children.

 1. “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

 2. “Since the ‘ceasefire’ in Gaza took effect six months ago, Israeli attacks have killed at least 738 people and injured more than 2,000. In total, since launching its genocidal war on Gaza, Israel has killed or injured at least 10 percent of the enclave’s population, killing more than 72,000 people, the majority of them women and children, and injuring at least 172,000 others, with thousands more buried under the rubble and presumed dead.” (Al Jazeera) And lest we forget: Israel has bombed Gaza thirty-six out of the last forty-days.

3. Helium is rare on earth. It is created by the natural radioactive decay of heavy elements like thorium and uranium. The world’s largest deposits are found in the South Pars and North Dome gas fields in the Persian Gulf seabed. It is used to make semi-conductors, and for high-tech, medical, and aerospace applications. 

 

p.s. There are some hardliners who seek to revoke Israel’s membership in various international organizations, athletic events or things like EuroVision. I disagree. I think Israeli athletes, entertainers, etc., should be allowed to attend all venues. However, their participation should be limited to silently hanging their heads in shame.

 

"Egads! What have we done!"

 

 

 

RANT: OILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOILOIOILOILOILOILOILOILOIOILOILOILOILOIL

   

HERE’S SOMETHING TO CONSIDER: Will the closure of the Hormuz Strait by Iran to countries predominately aligned with American interests really cause serious disruptions for the economies of importing nations? Yes, potentially, as this chart from the JP Morgan banking group shows.👇The hashed circles display the chief importing countries in each region. The dates outlined for the various countries within each circle indicates the date when waterborne deliveries of crude oil will stop, i,e., when all the tankers currently at sea arrive at their destination and discharge their cargo. For example, deliveries from the Persian Gulf to the EU will mostly stop by April 10. China, which imports 5.2-million barrels per day (bpd) of oil will see its source of Persian Gulf crude cease around April 1 [That’s no joke! Ed.]

 

After that, the Chinese will have to use their strategic oil reserves to fuel  their economy or else source oil from other producers, and Russia would be the obvious place for it to pick up any shortfall in imports. Either way China is well-placed to deal with disruptions to its supply lines in the Gulf. It has between 80 to 120 days of reserves, with total inventories of over one-billion barrels to be released into the economy as needed.* SOUTH KOREA is prepared for a shutdown of Persian Gulf oil with its strategic reserves of public and private holdings. It has between 200 to 254 days of crude in its stockpiles. On the other hand, the PHILIPPINES has no formal, strategic oil reserves. It gets 95% of its daily fuel from 'just-in-time' imports, and 25% of those imports coming from the Persian Gulf. It's economy is able to last 4-5 weeks before it runs out of petroleum and distillates. If the Gulf remains closed for an indefinite period of time, the Philippines will have to obtain alternate sources of oil, no doubt more expensive and within a shorter timeframe than, say, China or South Korea. Already, nations are talking about rationing, asking their populations to conserve fuel whenever possible, with further restrictions down the road.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING to see how Japan deals without Gulf oil upon which it depends for 95% of its energy imports with 90% coming through the straits of Hormuz. (Japan has zilch oil deposits on its territory). Perhaps it will make nice with the Russians and do some business together.

 

Asia, overall, will be hit hard by any disruption of Persian Gulf oil, importing, as it does, 84% of its fuel that's delivered via the Hormuz Strait and 83% of its LNG (Liquified Natural Gas).¹ EVEN IF the war ended today, there would still be repercussions from closing the Straits, and global supply chains in many sectors will be affected. High gasoline prices in America is one indicator, which is why the Trump administration quietly dropped its illegal tariffs on Iranian and Russian oil shipments, in an bid to keep global stocks topped-up with enough crude to keep prices as low as possible. 

IN MARCH, the U.S. released 172-million barrels of crude. In addition, the IEA (International Energy Agency), a 32-member nation organisation that provides analysis, data, policy recommendations and real-world solutions for energy related problems, released 400-million barrels from its emergency reserves, also in March, for the same purpose—to keep oil prices down. How long this can continue is anyone’s guess.

👉BUT, IF YOU HADN’T STARTED THIS FUCKING, STUPID WAR oil would still be in the price range that modern economies can handle, well below one-hundred-dollars per barrel, with adequate flows keeping everybody well lubed, ready and steady!😟

    

CHEERS, JAKE. _____________________________________

 

* If things go pear-shaped, as they well might, then there will not only be delivery problems with oil from the Persian Gulf but also production problems. If attacks are made to Iran’s oil infrastructure, this would almost certainly trigger a proportionate response from Iran against all Gulf countries it is in conflict with, damaging their oil fields, ports, and storage facilities in kind. Note that approximately 25% of global seaborne traffic in oil originates from the Gulf, most of it destined for Asian markets. An attack on Iran’s Kharg Island, which has extensive oil facilities, would almost certainly precipitate a destabilizing tit-for-tat escalation of the conflict.

 

¹ INTERESTING NOTE: A couple of days ago, a China bound oil tanker the Al Salmi was hit by a drone as it was leaving Dubai waters. It was presumably fired on by Iran. Perhaps it was attacked because it was a Kuwaiti-registered vessel and therefore considered property of a hostile nation and a legitimate target for Iran. Or, perhaps the captain of the vessel refused to pay the new transit fee. Or, maybe it was a "false flag" attack designed to throw shade on Iran and escalate the conflict. Who knows; it's "fog of war" time again. 

Iran has begun charging transit fees for all vessels passing through the Straits, a practice that will net them billions annually. So it goes.