RANT: LEAVING ON A JET PLANE, DON’T KNOW WHEN I’LL BE BACK AGAIN…

 

RECALL THE PROVERB about the hole in the bucket—you know, the one where the farmer goes to the well to draw water, but no matter what he does the hole determines the carrying capacity of his water bucket. He will need to make more trips to collect the same amount he previously collected, costing him time, energy, and ultimately money. Or he will make do with less. Yes, he could repair the bucket but that's beside the point: In systems theory, there is the principle that an organism or an organization is only as strong, as viable, as its weakest link:

 

“The principle that "a system is only as strong as its weakest link" means a system's overall performance is limited by its most vulnerable component. [Italics mine] In system theory, this bottleneck or constraint—whether a person, process, or technology—determines the maximum capacity and failure point of the entire system. Strengthening the weakest part yields the highest improvements.” (Google AI)

 

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ is the ‘weak link’ in the system of transporting crude oil and distillates from the Persian Gulf to the world. Functionally, it hadn’t been one before February 28 when Israel and the United States decided to once more attack Iran in round two of their illegal war of aggression against the Persian state. Prior to that, the Strait had been open and freely navigated by all. Iran closed the Strait (the sovereignty of which it shares with Oman), to vessels from nations hostile to it and those aiding and abetting their activities. Most Gulf oil goes to Asian markets (80 to 90%), with China receiving over one-third of all deliveries. Over 50% of China’s oil comes from the Gulf through the Straits of Hormuz, while ninety-eight percent of Filipino oil and nearly 90% of Japan’s crude oil comes from the Gulf. These countries and others (Italy, Greece, Poland, Spain, Malasia, India and Pakistan) have negotiated deals with Iran and now pay it toll fees, some as much as two-million dollars per tanker, for safe passage through the Strait. That amounts to billions per year in increased revenue which will go towards rebuilding Iran’s infrastructure damaged during the United States/Israel-Iran war begun in June of last year and reprised on February 28. There has been a tenuous ceasefire since April 7.

 

Note: Dissatisfied with the pace of peace negotiations brokered by the Pakistanis in Islamabad, on April 13 the United States imposed its own blockade (a blockade of a blockade!), denying passage for ships bound for, or leaving from, Iranian ports. This was done to pressure Iran to open the Straits to all maritime traffic free of charge, as it was before the war.* [Surely, war planers in the Pentagon considered closing of the Strait was something Iran would probably do once the shooting started? Now the mess created by the U.S. and Israel has spread, with ramifications for the entire globe. Nice job, guys! Ed.] Over three-quarters of Iran’s oil shipments have, thus far, been confiscated by Trump’s illegal blockade. But with millions of barrels of oil already in tankers at sea and in its shadow fleet ships, with pipelines to Turkey and the Caspian Sea, and with higher crude oil prices due to market unease over how the war is gaming out, all these mean that Iran can sell its oil at premium prices, resulting in an overall increase¹  in state revenues. 

STILL, there's the problem of Iran’s oil storage capacity being nearly full, which means oil wells must be capped, until their flow can be restarted at a future date (not an easy process.) And, don't forget the same problem exists for the rest of the Gulf States with uncapped oil wells filling up storage capacity, necessitating more and more wells be temporarily shuttered, adding to the time it will take to restart them and ramp up production after the war ends. 

👉That's unless Trump does something really stupid like starting the bombing campaign again. Which would trigger Iran to respond with a massive missile attack, decimating the Gulf states (and Israel, and American bases in the Middle East) and their oil infrastructure, taking offline 20% of the globe's oil supply. The resulting damage to economies throughout the world in the wake of such a clusterfuck would be incalculable.

 

MEANWHILE, in early May as I write this, countries around the world are beginning to feel pressure points in their economies as looming shortfalls in crude oil supplies are ‘baked-in’ and all but inevitable, with the resulting supply-chain disruptions already being felt in Asian countries, especially those with inadequate strategic petroleum reserves, or ones that are hard-pressed to pay for more expensive petroleum products. By now, most tankers that exited the Straits prior to February 28 have reached their destinations and have discharged their cargoes. Once that is used up, there will be a 20% shortfall in available crude until production levels once more meet the demand. Unless something is done to bring this war to an end real soon, some commentators predict a global recession by the summer and the possibility of a serious depression this autumn—one that could be on par with the Great Depression of the 1930s—unless crude oil and petroleum distillates are flowing full-throttle within the next few weeks. 

The American ‘counter-blockade’ against Iran must be lifted before the Iranians will even consider talks on opening the Hormuz Strait to pre-war traffic levels. Gulf states that aided Israeli and American attacks are not allowed to use the Straits at present. Global shortfalls in crude oil will mean shortages in dozens upon dozens of plastic products made from oil, including distillates like diesel and jet fuels.

 

Other Gulf exports like LNG, urea and ammonia (used in fertilizers), aluminum, as well as helium used in the manufacture of computer chips, will soon be in short supply. 

And a shortage of certain pigments made with petroleum distalates, along with an accompaning price hike in the available stocks, has led one Japanese (potato) chip manufacturer to print their bags in black and white [The Horror! The Horror! Ed.] 

👉ALREADY, farmers here in Canada are predicting lower crop yields later this year and next summer, due to increased cost of fertilizers, herbicides, diesel fuel, etc. Canada uses approximately 2.4-million bpd of oil, including nearly 900,000 bpd that is imported and sold primarily to eastern Canada. In an oil crunch, I guess Canada could export less to fulfill the country's needs or access the nearly limitless Alberta oil sands. Problem there is getting the oil from the west to the east coast. There are no east-west pipelines for a variety of reasons, and so Canadians should not be too sanguine about easily accessing oil diverted from exports or topping up our tanks with oil sands bitumen in a pinch. All may not go according to plan. And it's interesting to note that Canada is the only member of the G-7 countries that does not have a federally-controled strategic oil reserve, relying, instead, on the vast bitumen deposits in the west. Hmmm...

 

AIR LINES were the first headline grabbers, with an insecure supply chain for jet fuel causing the immediate cancellation of flights or the elimination of air travel routes altogether. (Who wants to buy a return flight ticket when jet fuel might be in short supply at the other end.)

IN EARLY APRIL, farmers in Ireland protested the rising costs of diesel by creating roadblocks with their tractors and other forms of peaceful demonstrations. FOLKS, THE PAIN WILL COME HERE in the next few weeks with the fuel price rise (despite the Liberal government temporarily removing the federal sales tax on gasoline). Expect scarcity of some food products and consumer goods along with price increases. 

 

👉As long as the Straits of Hormuz remains closed, things will only get worse. A note, passed from the Iranian delegation to Pakistani mediators listed five prerequisites that the Americans and Israelis must accept before negotiations over Hormuz could be discussed. These ‘givens’ to any future treaty run headlong into America’s maximal demands of "zero enrichment" of nuclear fuels and limits on Iranian missile forces; etc.. It’s hard to see where a deal can be made, especially given the abysmal track record of Trump’s negotiating team of Mutt and Jeff Kushner and Witkoff; the continued use of those two suggests to all and sundry that the Americans are not interested in genuine peace negotiations. If they were, they would not send these two unserious people to do the hard work of negotiating on behalf of the American government.

 

IT'S a knock-em, smack-em, drag-out match to see who will groan first--Trump or Iran. It's about who can withstand the pain the longest as world markets crash and economies slide into Recession, and even into that razorback-filled pit of Depression, as supply chains crack and crumble. The United States started this thing, with Zionists at home and abroad aiding and abetting, and arm-twisting the American president into yet another foolish and costly escapade in the Middle East. It's not just Epstein's ghost that haunts the sleep of President Trump, it's also the Three Ghosts of Modernity: Hubris, Indifference and Envy.

 

👉I THOUGHT I would get back in writing mode now that Trump’s gone to China and all of us can take a breather and walk through sunlit fields far from The Donald's rollercoaster ride to Hell. Perhaps the Chinese will keep him. Wouldn’t that be nice?     

 

CHEERS, JAKE. _____________________________________

 

* AS I UNDERSTAND IT, Iran’s blockade is legal because the Strait of Hormuz waters lay within its (and shared with Oman’s) maritime territorial waters. The United States is in breech of international law because it has no jurisdiction to seize Iranian ships in the Gulf of Oman’s waters. Iran’s blockade of this vital ‘choke point’ in the maritime supply chain for oil may set a precedent for other such bodies of water throughout the globe. 

 

1. Recall that the United States originally allowed Iranian oil shipments (and Russian oil which remains tariff free) to reach their destinations, thus keeping the international price of oil from climbing too quickly. They subsequently placed sanctions on any country buying Iranian oil. Perhaps the most important aspect in this whole kerfuffle is the willingness on the part of more and more buyers to purchase Iranian oil using local currencies, chiefly the Chinese Renminbi (RBM) instead of U.S. dollars, thus avoiding American scrutiny of their dollar-trade activities. Not using the USD or “petro dollar”, is a sign of the weakening hegemonic power America exerts over global financial markets, with more dominoes set to fall in the coming months and years. 

Stay tuned!

 

 

  

       

RANT: BLOWING SMOKE

 

THIS PAST SEPTEMBER, Canada, Britain, France, Portugal, and Australia are the latest Johnny-come-latelies countries to formally recognize Palestinian statehood, i.e. a Palestine of the post-Six-Day War, 1967 borders of which the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem (as its capital) are its constituent parts, and are roughly 24% of the total landmass Israel stole from the Palestinians in of Israel in 1948. 

The United Nations recognizes those borders however diminished they were--and are even more so for the Palestinians--since the end of WWII. The 1967 borders are the basis for a “two state” solution, but the failure of the world body to enforce its own mandate has been the root cause for much of the turmoil in West Asia (Middle East) ever since.

 

 “A total of 157 out of 193 UN nations currently recognize the Palestinian state. Two UN Security Council members, France  and the UK, joined ten other members in August to recognize Palestine during the opening session of the United Nations’ …. (RT) 

 

 And though nothing substantial will come from the UN recognition by these several countries, it is a marker, an addition to the consensus that Israel is on the wrong side of history, that its apartheid regime whereby Palestinians are second class citizens at best and victims of genocide at worst (in Gaza and soon perhaps in the West Bank). As UN Special Rapporteur for Palestine, Francesca Albanese points out what is critically important for the world community to accomplish:

 

 "States must secure a permanent ceasefire in Gaza... suspend all military trade and diplomatic ties with Israel, until it ends and remedies its genocide, unlawful occupation, and apartheid."

  

👉IF the we fail in this regard, then the clock is ticking for the start of the next genocide^* coming soon to a future near you. Other than that, everything is just tickety-boo.                                                                                                                                                             ❂                           

💀 WELL,WELL. I must say, the place is looking more like Shangri-La with each passing day, apart from all the rubble and decaying bodies buried underneath. Today, researchers calculate there are fifty-million tonnes of rubble to be excavated and crushed before rebuilding of the Palestinian enclave can begin. And it will take decades before reconstruction will be complete. And meanwhile, thousands of Palestinian bodies lay disinterred among the ruins. The story of one Palestinian returning to his home in northern Gaza after the ceasefire was announced on October 10 tells the tale:

 

“On Sunday, two days after the ceasefire was announced, Ghali Khadr returned to search through the ruins of his parents’ home. He spent the day sifting through shattered concrete and twisted metal for any sign of them. All he managed to find were some shards of their skulls and parts of their hands. Khadr took the remains of his parents to the graveyard, but found that it too had been destroyed. He decided to bury them next to the few graves that were still intact....Gaza’s civil defence agency estimates that the bodies of about 10,000 people [probably a significant under-count] are trapped under the debris and collapsed buildings. The halt in the fighting has given the ambulance service the chance to finally start the search for the dead and give their families a chance at closure." (The Guardian) 

 

BUT, NOT TO WORRY. Earlier this month, American president Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire and humanitarian relief regime as phase one of his plan to stop the murderous rampage by the IDF killing in Gaza. It’s a rocky road, to be sure, with the IDF almost daily shooting someone or bombing something or other, but Israel says it is keeping to the agreement. Except when it’s not. On Tuesday an IDF soldier was killed by Hamas. That evening Israel launched a particularly brutal reprisal bombing campaign that killed over one-hundred Gazans. One hundred to one! That’s not a bad ratio of how much more valuable an IDF soldier’s life is worth when compared to Palestinian men, women and children who are, don’t forget, civilians, non-combatants. Capishe? Since Trump’s ceasefire went into effect on October 12, over 200 Gazans have been killed by Israeli forces and nearly 600 injured by the IDF’s bombs, missiles and gunfire. 

 

YES, the genocide is taking a bit of a breather. Daily murders of Gazans are indeed down (except for Tuesday). But fans of this reality show can rest assured that the numbers will soon go up as Israel chafes under the strictures Trump¹  is apparently imposing on its lean, mean killing machine. When you look at the ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel you see that the plan:

 

“…remains largely undeveloped. It offers no clear timeline, verification process or credible means of enforcement…and the complete Israeli withdrawal, the formation of a technocratic administration in Gaza and the deployment of an international stabilization mission – have yet been agreed. With no clear sequencing or third-party oversight, the plan risks entrenching instability rather than resolving it.” (The Guardian)

 

 

NETANYAHU, if truth be told, will likely keep to the ceasefire until every last fragment of bone and tooth enamel from every last Israeli hostage that died in Hamas custody is unearthed and returned. 

AND he will take every opportunity to cry “foul!” and make reprisals at what he claims is Hamas’ foot-dragging²  in returning the remains of the dead Israelis, even if the bombing and destruction have made retrieval of the bodies a daunting task. But make no mistake, "Bibi” will return to his genocidal ways of emptying Palestine of Palestinians. By hook or by crook he will test the bonds Trump has imposed while he continues to attrit and attrit the population in Gaza and the West Bank and East Jerusalem until they are all gone or dead. That’s the plan, anyway. And along the way he may take much of southern Lebanon and Syria.

👉OF COURSE, Iran remains Netanyahu’s Bête noire and I don’t think we’ve seen the last of his efforts in ginning up a war with the Persians and dragging the United States into the fray. It’s really about who will be the regional hegemon, Israel or Iran, in the lands that birthed the first great cities of the world. Whatever which way you look, Israel is fighting or threatening just about everyone in West Asia (Middle East) that it can, which goes against that “Love thy Neighbour” thingy popularized by an earlier citizen from the Levant.

TIME'S RUNNING OUT and the Israeli PM cannot afford to let things get too peaceful, else he be summoned to appear in court on corruption charges and facing a stiff prison sentence. He can slow the wheels of justice with the excuse that it would be dangerous if he were to be taken out of commission while the country is at war. 😒 So, we'll see.

 

👉Riddle me this: Why is it that a lot of world leaders are border-line sociopaths? Is it a self-selecting process that sociopaths naturally gravitate to such positions? Or do the positions in question create sociopaths? Questions, questions…. OH, did I mention Israel has nuclear weapons?

 

CHEERS, JAKE.  ____________________________________

  

* Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, a few weeks ago, suggested the on-going, live-streamed genocide in Gaza, and the failure of the world community to do anything  concrete to stop it, suggests to him that, as a culture, "we have become inured to beastiality." And the question needs asking: Have we become accustomed to mass deaths and criminality as well? Our feckless leaders in Europe and the West, with a few exceptions,  are still gung-ho on funding the Ukraine war and are okay, it seems, with the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians. 

👉As mind-numbingly awful as Gaza is, most governments continue to have diplomatic and trading links with Israel that include weapons sales (the U.S. most notably). It's changing though. Props to Spain and Ireland who are not on-board for the genocide and are ending trading contracts, including weapons sales, with the rogue state. 

Props also to the Spanish and Italian dockworkers who refused to load shipments bound for Israel. Even the EU has begun raising concerns. [Canada, too, but with caveats that Jake will mention in a future post. If he remembers! Ed.] 

FOLKS, this genocide has been going on for over two years! Where the hell have our political leaders and the MSM (main-stream media) been while tens of thousands of men, women and children have been slaughtered? Did they just wake up one morning and say: "Hey! Look what Israel's doing over there. That can't be good, can it?" Even CNN has begun to use the "G"-word! 😆

BTW, it's not a war. It's mass murder. They call it "genocide" for a reason. 

 

1. Trump really wants to bring peace to Israel-Palestine conflict that’s been going on since 1948 when the “Nakba” (“catastrophe”) occurred and hundreds of thousands of Palestinians were disenfranchised and made homeless in their homeland and abroad. The Donald is still hankering for a Nobel Peace Prize. It eluded him this year, but he could well be a contender for next year. After all, he says he’s brokered peace in “six or seven” conflicts. Wowsers! I’m not sure if everyone got the memo but, if he gets his way in Gaza, it will indeed be a feather in his hat and put him in the running for the NPP. Hell, if he succeeds in bringing peace to Gaza, I’ll give him the damn prize. Then he can fuck off and go gentle into the good night.

 

FUN FACT: This year's NPP went to Venezuelan María Corina Machado a former member of the Venezuelan. She attempted to run for president in 2024 against the sitting president, Nicolas Maduro, but was blocked from running. She went into hiding, apparently fearing reprisals from Maduro. She's a dyed-in-the-wool globalist and U.S. bottom-feeder that some commentators suggest was given the Nobel Peace Prize as a sop to Donald Trump who would gain a reliable ally the United States could use to access to the country's rich deposits of oil and minerals. In other words, she is a lackey-in-waiting and can't wait for President Trump to invade her country so she could be installed as its president.  Machado has publicly asked for the United States to invade, which may have something to do with her hiding out.  Also, she was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and yet she's advocating for an invasion of her own country! She's a real sweetheart, that one!

 

2. I may have mentioned in an earlier post that Israel recruits jihadi terrorists from outside the country as well as local Palestinian gangs in Gaza to rob food aid shipments and perform other disruptive actions.  Dig the cynicism: A Jewish PM utilizes muslim jihadis who are, by definition, antisemitic in order to sow chaos where they may in Palestine. It’s a testament to the power of filthy lucre that such strange bedfellows are made!