RANT: LET ME GET THIS STRAIT..OR PERHAPS NOT

  

IS IT JUST ME or are things getting a little harry out there on the knife’s edge of international relations? Is reasoned, reality-based decision-making now old-fashioned and sooo last century? Maybe. But when billionaire real-estate sharks mascarade as diplomats, like  the dynamic duo of Witkoff & Kushner, you would think the Trump administration would get the memo that the whole world is laughing at them and sees them for what they are—unserious people acting in positions of great importance and caught butt-naked in their ineptness as the curtain rises and the klieg lights highlight every naughty bit and unmentionable. Let those two go to Abu Dhabi* and build another condo tower or something and get out of the way for real diplomats [do the Americans have any? Ed.] to handle the politics and brokering of peace deals, trade deals and other treaty initiatives.

As I write this (Thursday, May 20), we’re still in a waiting game following Trump’s less than triumphant visit to China, with little results coming from the get-together even with the string of billionaires Trump had in his entourage. Meanwhile, a second attack on Iran is highly probable, and we could see missiles flying by the weekend. 

Trump has painted himself into a corner by going along with the Israeli scheme of regime change in Iran. (Actually the Israelis would prefer to see Iran balkanized like Syria and made impotent with internal conflict.) It didn’t work the first two times: in the “Twelve-Day War” last June, or the rematch of February 28 to the April 7 ceasefire. Heck! Go for it, Mister President! After all, three times’s a charm, isn't it?

Trump doesn’t want to be involved in a protracted war in the Middle East, yet he doesn’t know how to get out the mess he’s made. He might do what he did in the Twelve-Day War—make a big strike somewhere, declare victory and go home. Or he could double down on stupid and continue fighting an Iranian foe that’s holding most of the cards. In the first scenario he’d have to eat a lot of crow pulling his forces out of the region with none of the mission objectives achieved, no matter how they spin the PR. The second scenario is fraught with dangers and a high probability of not achieving anything like a military victory, just like the first two times Israel and the United States attacked Iran. A third possibility is for Trump to admit he's made a mistake and to go home, withdrawing American forces from West Asia (Middle East) altogether. 

👉That’s the best solution, and one that saves lives and billions in treasure the United States can no longer afford to squander on overseas military adventures. How likely is #3 do you think? For someone like Trump, to admit he was wrong and had been led around by the nose by Israel that is desperate to wreck Iran so it can emerge as the preeminent power in the region. Some sort of explosion is likely in the cards. Stay turned.¹

 

 

CHEERS, JAKE.

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* Perhaps the UAE might not be such a good place to broaden your real estate portfolio just now. The Gulf state is a signatory to the Abraham Accords which was a 2020 initiative by the Americans to bring Gulf Arab and neighbouring Arab states into a formal treaty normalizing relations with the state of Israel. Had a state like Saudi Arabia become a signatory to the agreement, others would follow and the aspirations of the Palestinian people for a homeland would be in jeopardy. The October 7 attacks in 2023 put an end to that possibility. SIGNING the Accords, while Israel killed thousands of their fellow Arabs, would have been politically impossible for leaders wary of their restive populations who watch, with growing anger, Israel’s genocide and ethnic cleansing of Gaza and its assaults on the West Bank and Lebanon.

👉My point is that the UAE may have made a big mistake signing onto the Accords with Israel: If the Americans and Israelis renew their attacks, an Iranian retaliation would surely result in the destruction critical infrastructure throughout the UAE, along with any nation, Gulf or otherwise, that assisted in the assault on Iran.

 
1. AS OF THIS WRITING, the Hormuz Strait is still controlled by Iran. It's been eleven weeks since the blockade began, following the February 28 attacks by Israel and America. The American blockade of Iranian shipping is also still in force. Now, a trickle of shipping passes through the straits each day compared to pre-war traffic of 120 to 140 ships. Oil tankers bound for China are the exception. Others may have to pay a toll or make some arrangements with Iran for safe passage.

Meanwhile, as the ceasefire of hostilities holds, each side is locked in an economic war to see how long their economies can hold out with global shipments of nearly 20% of the world's oil and derivatives now delayed, and fuel shortages begin wrecking economies without petroleum supplies incoming from the Persian Gulf. 

👉Any re-starting of hostilities might mean the straits will be closed altogether, along with the potential wreckage of Gulf states' oil infrastructures—a catastrophic outcome, I'm sure you'll agree. 

👉Hold onto yer hats! This ain't over yet. And don't forget, there's still Ukraine!

 

 

 Time for Lunch