HERE'S AN INTERESTING PIC (below)from an
article in RT (Russia Today) about a meeting between Trump, Macron and Zelensky
in Paris, on Saturday. Trump looks haggard or at least worried in this photo as
he stands beside the other two, with "Weather Vane" Macron smiling beside his BFF, hand on his
shoulder. (Not sure if he has his other hand on Trump’s shoulder. He might be
afraid the President-elect would break it off.) Zelensky can just barely eke
out a kinda smile that’s almost a sneer or a smirk maybe, while Trump looks like he's the only
adult in the room who might be taking seriously the whole
Ukraine-leading-us-into-WWIII thingy. And it worries him. As it should. I'll bet the captain of the Titanic had a similar expression when he saw the iceberg looming off the starboard bow. Just sayin'
Some commentators suggest that
what’s going on these last few weeks is that each side—Ukraine, the U.S., the
Russian Federation—are staking out their “maximalist” positions, their ‘big
asks’ if you will, so that when negotiations finally begin (and they will have
to at some point), each will be negotiating from the strongest position
possible. There are more and more calls for a ceasefire and peace talks coming
from world leaders and increasingly from MSM press and news organizations that write
about Russian advances; of a Ukrainian military running short of new
conscripts; of a lack of weaponry; of the impending collapse of the Ukrainian military.
Some talking heads speak of the need for Ukraine to cede land for peace. It's about time they started to get real about the war.
👉Moscow has repeatedly said its (non-negotiable) demands are for 1) a neutral
Ukraine and for Ukraine to no longer seek NATO membership, ever. 2) For
all Ukrainian forces to leave the four oblasts in the Donbass region and
recognize them as part of Russia, including Crimea.
3) “Denazification” in the remaining
Ukrainian rump state, is another condition Russia demands and I assume it also means
regime change in Kiev, and amendments to Ukraine’s constitution to protect
minority rights for Russian speakers, for example.
I EXPECT on the agenda would include the lifting of
“sanctions” against the Russian Federation, that absurd farrago of misplaced
and ineffective trade restrictions meant to bring the Ruskies to heel, and
which flopped so spectacularly, like fish on a dock. There may be other
demands the Russians will make, going forward, like claiming additional territory: Possibly Mykolaiv, and the historic port and hinterlands of Odessa. And Kiev could be on the list if Zelensky--but really Washington--doesn't get his/their act together and recognize Russia's core demands. Also, Moscow will probably expect the return of the $300 billion the EU and US stole from Russian central bank funds held in Western banks. Folks, the longer this war continues, the more Ukraine will lose, because (and here’s the
rub, Fats) the Russians are in the driver’s seat. Ukraine, for all intents and
purposes, has already lost the war.
DURING that meeting in Paris last weekend and afterwards on his social media platform "Truth Social", Trump came out publicly calling for an immediate ceasefire and peace talks to begin with the Russians, and I sincerely hope this conflict
can be resolved in early 2025 with the incoming Trump administration. If Trump
can stop the arms flow to Ukraine and drag Zelensky kicking and screaming to the
negotiating table, then the bloodshed has a chance to stop.* Interestingly, Austria, a
neutral country, has announced it is ready, if asked, to act as a mediator between Russia
and Ukraine to facilitate the peace process. And Austria’s own neutrality status
enshrined in its constitution (since 1955) could be a model for a future Ukraine.
UKRAINE HAS A CHANCE of
being a reasonably prosperous, if primarily agrarian, neutral state, that allows ‘elbow room’ between NATO and the Russian Federation. But if Russia
decides to move on Odessa, it may take the Mykolaiv and Odessa oblasts (and
Sumy in the north where the Kursk attack was launched), then Ukraine will be hard-pressed to exist as a viable state without a port on the Black Sea. The time to negotiate is now. Russia will not stop until it’s
core interest is achieved—no NATO arms and armies along its borders with
Ukraine. For Russia, this is an existential issue and is non-negotiable.
Zelensky has stated he still wants entry into NATO and to "freeze" the conflict along the lines of the Korean model, with some sort of DMZ (Demilitarized Zone). But these 'asks' are deal breakers for Russia. Putin is not interested in an "armistice" or a "frozen" conflict but rather he seeks a genuine peace agreement that enshrines Russia's demands in a legally-binding treaty. Note: There exists, still, a state of war between North and South Korea, though each side abides by the armistice made in 1953 (mostly). It's odd to think that after seventy years there is no formal peace agreement between Pyongyang and Seoul. To the detriment of both their societies, the peninsula remains in a state of frozen conflict.1 Russia has no interest in this type of arrangement and has made its position clear: It wants a treaty, not a truce. It will not accept a frozen conflict whereby the West can continue to surge weaponry and war materiel into western Ukraine (like the U.S. does with South Korea) to be used in a future conflict with Russia. Which is why this entirely unnecessary war may have to be resolved on the battlefield, if that's all Zelensky and his enablers have to offer.
SO, AFTER PEACE NEGOTIATIONS, if
and when they occur, all those security agreements
with Ukraine, like the one our idiot PM made, along with several European
countries, will have to be undone. One of the clauses in Canada’s agreement
with Ukraine is the commitment of $3.02 billion in “macroeconomic
and military assistance” to Ukraine in 2024, and “sets out key
areas of current and future cooperation and support.” This amount is in addition to the $4 billion Canada, the 6th largest donor to Ukraine, has already given
for “lethal and non-lethal military assistance and equipment” and over $7
billion in financial aid since 2022 (more than $13 billion all told).
Like Canada, I assume other countries signing ‘security’ agreements with Kiev, aren’t
obligated to send troops to fight alongside the AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine). They’re
called “security agreements” but, really, they’re just agreements to keep sending
billions of taxpayer dollars in equipment and military aid to continue the fighting. (Germany, apparently, has a commitment
to send aid to Ukraine, “indefinitely”. We’ll see how long that one
last!) The agreements are publicity stunts more than anything—to show how supportive everyone is toward Ukraine, so that it keeps the Russian bear at
bay.2 Those agreements to send Ukraine military equipment will have to be torn up. It is Russia that will dictate what kind of military forces will be allowed into a future Ukraine, if any. Russia has said it will not simply allow NATO to rearm what's left of Ukraine after the eastern oblasts are incorporated into the Russian Federation.
FINALLY, I don’t think we can any
longer subscribe to the notion that Ukraine can win this war. We must accept the
fact that it has a snowball’s chance in Hell of defeating the Russians. If this
continues much longer, Ukraine will end up destroyed, perhaps carved up by its
neighbours, and no longer existing as a independent state. Colonel Douglas Macgregor, on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive podcast predicts that by January 20/25, Trump's inauguration day, Russian forces may well have advanced to the Dniper River, and what happens afterwards is anyone's guess. Perhaps they will take Kiev.
ON THE OTHER HAND, through realistic, time-to-eat-some-crow negotiations, Ukraine might emerge, yes, smaller, neutral, disarmed and de-nazified, but remain a
functioning polity. Colonel Macgregor in the same interview, suggests that President Trump should immediately call a summit meeting of all European countries that neighbour Ukraine (Moldova, Romania Hungary, etc.) and work out borders and a host of issues that can lead to a permanent peace for the region. This conference might even lead to a broader discussion of the type of security arrangements to be had for Europe as a whole, which includes Russia, of course. NATO and the EU as institutions have had their day and Macgregor suggests it's time for something else on the continent. Interesting stuff to watch for!
IT'S IMPORTANT to remember that Russia does not want anything to do with western Ukraine.
It's ethnically Ukrainian, and mostly hostile to Russia. Eastern Ukraine is historically Russian and Russian-speaking, and Russia will continue taking more territory in the east the longer the bloodshed goes on. This war needs to end.
FROM THE PHOTO, Trump’s worried expression may suggest that he's beginning to see just how complicated and painful it
will be getting to the negotiating table with Zelensky who, only now, is coming round to accepting the need for peace talks
Until then, the “Biden” administration is adamant about “surging” as much money and weapons to Ukraine as it can before Trump's inauguration. And its spokespersons keep repeating the same, absurd talking points: “We will continue supporting Ukraine for as
long as it takes to halt the Russian invasion and return the occupied lands
illegally annexed…” Blahblahblah. The neo-cons in Washington and their cuck
sidekicks in London and the EU have no reverse gear! They’re racing their clown-cars of
state Wile E. Coyote-style right off a cliff!
👉Listen up: I think the “deal” Donald will
try to do with the Russians will be harder to accomplish than he thinks.
Russia has won the war; it's all over but the fighting. It’s time for the losing side, namely, Ukraine and its ‘enablers’ in NATO and the United States to
put on their big boy pants and admit this reality, and negotiate the most
favourable terms the Russians will offer. Ukraine doesn't have—and never had—a winning hand in this conflict. They should fold, and cash in whatever chips they have
left.
Cheers, Jake. ____________________________________
* And it will be none to soon. There is scuttlebutt kicking around that
Kiev will begin drafting eighteen-year-olds into the army in a hopeless
bid to mount an offensive next year. Drop your cocks and grab your socks!
Chew on that for a minute, folks. Kids barely out of high school might be
sucked into Zelensky’s meat grinder. Despicable! Another generation
of Ukrainian men may be lost! How can the country ever recover after three
years fighting as NATO’s and America’s proxy against Russia?
There may be as many as 600,000 dead Ukrainians and upwards of one million wounded! [Responsibility for the war's inevitable outcome can clearly be laid at the feet of the meat puppet known as, “Joe Biden”, or whoever is pulling his strings at the White House. (Commentators suggest it’s the execrable Sec of State Tony Blinken who’s actually calling the shots.) And VP Harris, who is, frankly, equally incompetent, shirks her constitutional duty in not invoking the 25th Amendment to the Constitution to have an obviously senile Biden removed from office (and away from the "nuclear codes!"), and for her to assume power until January 20, when Trump is inaugurated President. In any event, she is MIA and hardly makes a peep anymore. Talk about a “lame duck” presidency—this one looks like a dead duck to me.
FATS, don’t you feel when looking at the chaotic mess in Washington, with a president who is clearly unfit for office, and a “deep state” committed to forever wars across the globe, that the whole kit-and-caboodle is careening out of control on a toboggan ride whizzing out of the park and into rush-hour traffic? What the f@#k is going on, down there?
2. Canada's contribution this year to the Ukrainian slush fund war effort is part of a $50 billion 'loan'😆the G-7 countries have recently cooked up to send to Ukraine in these waning weeks of the Biden administration. They are using the interest earned from appropriated Russian central bank funds on deposit in Western banks and 'frozen' since 2022. That interest on that money (over $1 billion/year) will be used to 'repay' the 'loan'. In other words, they are stealing Russia's money. It's not a good look and they may well get burned in the process (which would serve them right).
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