IS THAT A PISTOL IN MY POCKET? YA WANNA SEE?

HAN SOLO once quipped that "you never seem to have a Death Star lying around when you need one.” And we all know that feeling. Even in a world filled with weapons, from Swiss Army knives to nukes, they’re there, sure as shooting, just not always when you really need them. Ukraine’s a case in point. After almost two-and-one-half years of conflict, and with “more than $380 billion in aid to Ukraine, including nearly $118 billion in direct military aid,” Ukraine says it needs F-16 jet fighters and long-range missiles to carry on its fight against the Russian bear. Ukraine wants to strike targets deep inside the Russian Federation. And what Ukraine wants, Ukraine usually gets. In the last couple of weeks, Zelensky has been going around on the conference circuit, popping up in Prague and Singapore, and making his pitch, ad nauseam, for permission to launch ATACMS (USA), SCALP (France) and Storm Shadow (Britain) missiles deep into Russian territory, presumably to target industrial and military installations.  Earlier this week, President Biden gave official authorization for Ukraine to use American artillery and HIMARS ("High Mobility Rocket Systems")  to strike targets inside Russia, but specifically in areas bordering the Kharkiv region where Russian forces have made territorial gains, and from which its army relies on supporting military infrastructure, to aid the advance.* Biden, however, has not (yet) given the go-ahead for US ATACMS missile strikes into Russia as that may be too provocative, though they have been used in the Donbas and Crimea regions of what is now considered, by Russia, to be Russian territory.  The same goes for other long-range Western missiles Ukraine may be getting or already has in its arsenal. Germany is an outlier here in that its leadership states that while it is "in favour" of Ukraine striking inside Russia for self defense, it has yet to send German "Taurus" missile arrays to Ukraine.

 

Maj. 'King' Kong riding nuclear bomb from "Doctor Strangelove"

IT SHOULD BE NOTED that long-range missile systems are already in Ukraine, though the codes necessary to configure their expanded range capabilities are, presumably, in the hands of U.S. and Western ‘contractors’ operating the launchers. Also, launching long-range missile attacls inside the Russian Federation would require satellite guidance for them to reach their targets, potentially bringing Russia and the United States into direct conflict as those satellite are undoubtedly American.  While there is a case to be made for Ukraine attacking Russian troop formations massing along its border in self defense, it would be provocative and an escalation in the conflict, and Russia would respond forcefully. The question is how forcefully? IN the past, there have been artillery, missile, drone and "special forces" attacks inside Russia throughout the conflict--the Kersh Bridge and the shelling of Belogrod come to mind. Russia responded with increased attacks on Ukraine's energy grid, for example and is currently establishing a buffer zone in Ukraine to protect the Belogrod oblast from artillery attack. But when would attacks inside Russia cross a red line? Note that such attacks inside Russia will not change the trajectory of the war; Russia is winning. But they may impel Russia to increase the intensity of attacks inside Ukraine, or even attack Western military facilities and personnel? Would F-16 jets launched from Romania and targeting Russian forces in Ukraine or even inside Russia, cause Russia to react by attacking airfields in Romania? That would, presumably, trigger a Article Five NATO response, and who knows where we go from there. 

SO, like giving matches to a toddler, Ukraine is given Western weapons and support for (for now) limited attacks inside Russia. But like the proverbial camel sticking its nose inside the tent, one wonders how long it will take before Ukraine expands its range of targets deeper inside Russia by hook or by crook? What could possibly go wrong?

 

I WAS DISTURBED to read lackey Canada’s Global Affairs Minister, Melanie Joly, making similar escalatory statements at a news conference following a bi-lateral meeting last week in Stockholm with her Swedish counterpart. On Ukraine using NATO-provided weapons inside Russia Joly said: “We believe that we need to be forward-leaning on this question…Russia has no red line, [Italic mine] and so that is why we need to make sure that when it comes (to) Ukraine’s defense, that we’re there to help them.” (Victoria News, May 30)

WHAT I find off-putting is not so much her following in lock step with other sheeples NATO countries in giving Canada’s official ‘okay’ for the strikes inside Russia. What I find disturbing is her foolish comment that Russia "has no red line.”

Stop for a minute....What does that even mean? How the hell does she know Russia has no red lines? It’s such an undiplomatic comment for a diplomat to make, and it suggests a mindset that smugly assumes Russia has no core interests it deems vital to protect, no sense of sovereignty or national identity, and that Russia would continue to ‘cuck’ no matter how much it’s prodded by the swinging dicks in NATO. It suggests a profound lack of understanding prevalent in the Collective West around Russia, and a dangerous shortsightedness that could leave us wincing as the Slavic giant grabs us by the short hairs. 

 

PUTIN has made it clear in past speeches how nuclear weapons would be used if Russia is attacked with nuclear weapons (it has a “no first strike” doctrine; i.e. it would not launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack, or attack a non-nuclear nation with nuclear weapons). But, tactical (AKA "battlefield") nuclear weapons can be used  in the first instance if the Russian state was in danger of being overrun. Sounds like a pretty clear red line to me. That’s the big one. More on that below.

 

AS the Kiev regime faces a fracturing military situation, troop shortages and growing battlefield losses, it is likely Zelensky will try to double down on the narrative suggesting attacks inside Russia will sow discord, weaken Russia's resolve, bring about regime change there, and help Ukraine regain the initiative on the battlefield. But these are unlikely scenarios for reasons I won’t go into here.

 

WHAT I want to mention were the two drone attacks that Ukraine launched into Russia in the last week or so. Whether they did so with or without the 'green light' from Washington is unclear. One was hundreds of miles from the border, an impressive feat. Two radar stations were hit and damaged. Yea! Slava Ukraini!  Folks, these  arrays were “long range” radar installations, and part of Russia’s early warning system, that tracks “over-the-horizon” incoming threats. They’re no good for local air observations of drones and the like. They are, however, part of Russia’s ground-based nuclear deterrence network (at 55:35). Let that sink in for a minute. These installations are there to track incoming ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) from the United States.⁺ How do you think the Russian leadership views these foolhardy attacks? How would America react if one of its nuclear deterrence radars were attacked by a Russian proxy? To me, this sounds like a rogue operation concocted by the geniuses in Kiev to illicit a harsh Russian over-reaction and thus pull NATO or the U.S. to intervene militarily. We may soon learn just where those Russian red lines are, and the lesson may not be to anyone's liking.

 

1961, USSR. "Tsar Bomba" 50-58 Mt of TNT.

ONE imagines Kremlin strategists consider the disabling of two¹ long range radars  that are part of the country’s strategic defense network as an existential threat that potentially triggers a tactical nuclear response. Or worse. And if that possibility doesn’t turn your bowels to ice water, I don’t know what will!²   

👉We rely on Putin remaining level-headed and measured in how he responds to these new provocations, but even he has his limits.  

 

Cheers, Jake.___________________________________________________

 

* To be clear, there have been Ukrainian attacks in Crimea and inside Russia in the past, for example the Kersh Bridge, Belgorod and possibly the Crocus City Hall massacre, the difference now is that many leaders in the West are giving their official okay for such operations.

 

+ Here's an interesting speculation from the Military Summary Channel (at 2:30) about who might be involved in the radar station attacks: Both radar stations face south to monitor for over-the-horizon threats from incoming American ICBMs. The long range radar arrays also can observe air space over Iran and Bahrain. Is it possible there was Israeli involvement with Ukraine to disable the radars as a test to see if Russian 'eyes' could be 'blinded' in that region, and not be able to forewarn Iran of an incoming attack. Additionally, were there American fingerprints on the operation? Bahrain hosts a large U.S. military base from which missiles could be launched against Iran in the event of hostilities. To blind Russian radars in this manner would give an advantage to Israeli or American missile volleys in a hot war with Iran. Or it could simply be a desperate and dangerous move on the part of the Ukrainian military that finds itself more and more on the back foot.

 

1. They are building two more radar stations to monitor Scandinavian airspace since Sweden and Finland foolishly decided to join NATO.

 

2. It’s clear that Ukraine is becoming desperate and hopes that by targeting these two radar installations (their locations and purpose are public knowledge) they would elicit a response from Russia that would draw NATO and the U.S. into the fray, thus saving Ukraine’s and Zelensky’s bacon. But we will all be crispy bacon bits if those idiots in Kiev, Washington, Brussels, Berlin, Paris, Ottawa, etc. don’t accept that it is expected of our politicians to ‘eat crow’ from time to time. This is one of those times.

 👉START TALKING to the Russians, drag Zelensky from his whiny corner and give him a soother to suck on, put fresh batteries in Joe Biden’s hearing aids and make a fucking deal with the Russians! 

 

 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE!

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE! 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE!