Sunday, 14 April 2024

NoW UPDATE: UKRAINE

 
Russian Artillery--Battle of Berlin, Spring 1945

OH Wait! I forgot. There’s another war going on in Eastern Europe...that Ukraine thingy. It is interesting in the last couple of months to see how mixed Western leaders and mainstream media have become around prognosticating what Ukraine’s chances are for success in the war against Russia.  A growing number of analysts suggest that the best Ukrainians can hope for is some kind of stalemate, with the lines of contact frozen, something  akin to the Korean DMZ (Demilitarized Zone) model. That’s a best-case scenario. Chances are, Ukraine will have to accept far worse, the longer the conflict continues.
OTHERS feel Ukraine may go on the defensive and develop asymmetric warfare tactics (long-range drones, missiles, sabotage, pinprick strikes behind Russian lines) as its primary method of operation. But bigwigs like the American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, NATO chief Stoltenberg, and EU President Ursula von der Leyen still believe in magic and achieving the impossible, when stating yet again that Ukraine can carry on its fight against Russia as long as it’s given enough money and armaments. Meanwhile, French President Macron blows hot and cold around the idea of sending French forces into Odessa to discourage Russia from attacking the famous Black Sea port. Of all the dangerous, dumfuk ideas! And ridiculous (as in it ain't gonna happen). In Brussels last week, Stoltenberg, Blinken and American Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, tiresomely reaffirmed their commitment to bring Ukraine into NATO, ignoring Russia’s red lines and its demand that Ukraine becomes a neutral country and never joins NATO.
 
BUT lesser minds think alike: Stoltenberg et al are banging on for the EU to pony up 100 billion bucks to be set aside in a slush fund to finance Ukraine’s war efforts into 2025 and beyond and, in addition have those greenbacks locked  into NATO’s budget just in case Trump wins the presidency in November (and acts to end the war and scale back U.S. commitment to the 75-year old military alliance). To finance this boondoggle effort, Stoltenberg suggests the EU and U.S. steal confiscate Russian central bank assets on deposit and “frozen” in West since 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. However, such a potentially disastrous action is deemed unlikely.😨
FINANCING the Ukrainian war effort is becoming less palatable for Europeans now that American funding commitments have been held up in Congress and U.S. attention is turning toward Israel and the Gaza horror show. As a sign of their desperation, EU leadership has even floated the idea of borrowing money in international money markets for Ukraine. Throwing good money after bad and adopting policies to further provoke Russia seems the modus operandi these days.

 OF COURSE:
👉Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was illegal under international law, but it was not an unprovoked attack, as many politicians and MSM talking heads will suggest. For years, Russian officials warned the West that bringing Ukraine into NATO was a red line for them. Yet our foolish officials continued to insist that was their intention, come hell or high water. Just last week, American Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin made mouth noises underscoring their commitment to this foolishly provocative and wholly unnecessary goal. Of course, the real goal was to “weaken Russia", not save Ukraine (and never mind how many Ukrainians have to die in the process).
👉Ukraine has already lost. It is a dead man walking. Inertia, additional funding, and policies pursued by errant knaves in Kiev and Washington can keep it going for a while, but some analysts suggest Ukraine's battered army may not last the summer. The war-ravaged country is out of weapons, out of manpower and out of time.
👉Contrary to public opinion, the Russian military is no “Potemkin” construct. It is robust and growing. Recently, it created a fifth military district, the “Leningrad District”, to address the security threat posed along its western and northern borders by the new NATO idiots members, Norway and Sweden. Plans to create a 1.5-million-man army are on schedule, with a significant number of volunteers joining the ranks each month.
👉Its weapons industries manufacture military equipment, missiles, bombs, artillery shells, tanks, drones, etc., on a scale multiples greater than the entire West’s military production capabilities combined.
👉If the recent terrorist attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, killing nearly 140 concert goers and that ISIS now takes credit, was found to have been formulated or supported by Ukrainian intelligence services or Britain’s MI6 or even the CIA, then the repercussions could be deadly if Russia chooses to launch reprisal attacks.
👉Unless Ukraine bids for peace now it could well lose Kharkiv and Odessa and their surrounding territories, leaving it a land-locked and dysfunctional rump state on the ass end of Europe.
👉In a recent meeting with Belarusian president Lukashenko, Putin laid out Russia's position on key points necessary to end its Special Military Operation in Ukraine:
        ðŸ‘ŒThe "Istanbul Agreement" of 2022 Between Kiev and Moscow that was sabotaged by former British PM Boris Johnson, can be a starting point for future talks, "but a number of new realities have emerged in two years," Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. Significant modifications and additions to the original proposal are necessary to craft an 'Istanbul Plus' treaty. "But realities [i.e., four eastern Ukrainian oblasts and Crimea are now part of Russia. That's non-negotiable. Ed.] have to be taken into account."
        ðŸ‘ŒNo NATO. Ukraine must be neutral, like Austria, with a limited size for its army, post-conflict.
        ðŸ‘Œ"De-Nazify" Ukraine through the enactment of new laws.
        ðŸ‘ŒIt must accept security guarantees from Russia.
        ðŸ‘ŒRussia will have veto power over any foreign troop presence in Ukraine.
👉Moscow does not think Ukraine or the West will consider Istanbul Plus a basis for negotiation, but Putin laid down his markers. It should be noted that Zelensky is presenting his completely unworkable (as far as the Russians are concerned) 10-point plan at a major "Peace" conference in Switzerland in June. Russia was not invited. How they expect this to work when two years of sanctions and warfare have only strengthened Russia, is anybody's guess. And what's the point of such a gathering when the other side isn't there to negotiate?😕
    Paris Peace Conference, 1919
👉
Western intransigence means Ukraine's fate will be determined on the battlefield, not around the negotiating table.          
👉Russia has the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. Something to keep in mind.
   
FUN FACT#1—Palestinians living in northern Gaza, several hundred thousand, where much of the infrastructure and homes have been destroyed, making the enclave there more like a moonscape or something from a post-Apocalyptic movie, have adopted the “Gazan Diet” as part of their health and fitness regimes. Starvation, make no bones about it, is the timeless weight-loss method guaranteed (you heard me!) to drop those unwanted pounds and inches in record time.
 
FROM the famines of early Rome to the “Volcanic winter” of 535-536 that affected food production globally, [Sorry, no stats on this one. Ed.] to the climatically impacted famines experienced by the Mayan peoples of Central America, where decades-long droughts killed an estimated 1,000,000, to the many, many famines and micro-famines occurring in Europe and elsewhere throughout our shared millenniums including, more recently, the Russian famine* of 1601-03 that killed 1/3 of the population, famine has proven it is the number one diet to win the battle of the bulge. There are perennial favourites like the Irish Potato Famine of 1844-49, the 1876-78 Indian famines (est. 5.5 million), and Ukraine’s “Holodomor” (3 to 5 million in 1931-32). Of course, the record holder is Mao Zedong’s “Great Leap Forward” social engineering faux pas, during which an estimated 15 to 55 million Chinese died of starvation. Honorable mention goes to the “Holodomor”, of course.
 
TODAY, we turn our attention to Gaza Strip where Oxfam reports that Palestinians in the northern half of the enclave receive 245 calories per day+ or less than 12% of an average diet. (Hell! My burger’s condiments have more calories than that!) And Gazans in Rafah and in the southern zone currently receive “just 41 per cent of the daily calories needed per person.”
By all accounts, Israelis are doing a bang-up job assisting Palestinians with their diets. It remains to be seen, in the coming weeks and months, whether the Gazan Diet will be up to snuff in the starvation stats. The Holodomor killed an estimated 13% of the Ukrainian population. A ‘back-of-the-napkin’ calculation gets us a hefty 336,000 deaths that the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza must tote up if they want to beat Ukraine’s record. Granted, they have a long row to hoe, but with the IDF’s (Israeli Defense Force) help, through its blockades, killing of aid workers, closing food distribution networks, destroying infrastructure, homes, and croplands, those perky residents of the Gaza Strip have a shot at topping Ukraine’s death-by-starvation numbers, and to drop those unwanted pounds permanently. 
 
AS AN ASIDE, Jonathan Swift’s 1729 “A Modest Proposal”, while dealing primarily with the issue of poverty in Ireland, and suggesting the Irish poor sell their children as a food source to the wealthy (no need mentioning how the Irish breed like rabbits—then and now!), it goes without saying that Gaza, with nearly half its population under the age of 18, would be well advised to consider Swift’s proposal as a way of solving both their impoverishment issues, and at the same time maintaining healthy protein levels with a steady supply of meat at hand. Cannibalism is not the exclusive domain of the rich!   
 
FUN FACT#2 PEOPLE ARE FUNNY—It seems just about every other day there are reports of a school shooting somewhere in the United States (and, though rarer, here in Canada, as well). “Soft targets.” That’s what they call places like schools, churches, community buildings, in other words places that cannot monitor and identify every threat coming their way. No matter how advanced today's security systems are there’s one thing they can’t do: They can’t read people’s minds. 
For example, the smiling scholar stepping to the podium to get his diploma might carry a samurai sword beneath his robes as he prepares to lop off his professor’s head over some imagined grievance. The “ugly duckling”, teased for years by her classmates, might carry a semi-automatic handgun in her frumpy, unstylish gym bag, all set to murder the sorority queens as they shower after cheer-leading practice.
HARM can come to your child from ‘mad hatters’ with blades or ticking time-bombs in lunchpails. And guns, of course. Guns are a part of the culture and are everywhere in the lower forty-eight with over 393 million firearms thought to be in the possession by Americans. It goes without saying that some gun owners are bad apples. Some are loons and even terrorists. All it takes is the slightest pull on the trigger to release chaos and harm upon those we love, particularly our children. Our precious ones live safe and sheltered in their homes, under their parents’ watchful eyes. But what happens to them on the walk to school? During recess? In the classroom? How can we prevent our children from becoming statistics in police reports—dead, in black and white. THAT’S WHY my heart skipped a beat when I read about guns designed for children.
 
 I REMEMBER, back in the day, watching the movie, “Old Yeller”, waiting for the scene when young Travis Coates, tears streaming down his face, uses his 22-rifle to put down his beloved, but now rabid, pet dog. I don’t know if the rifle he used to kill “Old Yeller” was adult-sized or a smaller version—I couldn’t see through my tear-blurred eyes. Fast forward a few decades and gun makers have given us a remarkable solution: protection that comes in a range of firearms, from handguns to long rifles, even semi-automatics, that are designed in size and operability with children in mind.  What an important development in gun design and personal safety! Providing functional, easy to use handguns and rifles for our children, arming them so they can be safe from the random violence and mayhem so prevalent in our modern world. 
 
  Note the orange safety zip-tie trigger guard
IT’S SIMPLE—train and school our children how to use real weapons to defend themselves. Help pass “Carry Concealed” laws in every state (and province!). LOWER age restrictions for possessing a weapon. “How young?” Some ask. I say: how young is too young when the lives of our children are at stake?
IS YOUR CHILD starting school next year? Are they heading into the world, away from the safety of their home to learn the “3 Rs”? Well, it’s high time they learned a fourth, namely Rifle! Give them the proper tools and let them learn how and when to use them. Safety and security in their knapsacks or in quick response, open-carry holsters. Brilliant! Absolutely brilliant!   
 
Cheers, Jake. ______________________________________
 
* “If only,” I hear reader’s saying. “If only it could have been worse, then we wouldn’t have all the trouble we have now with those damn Reds!” If wishes were calories, we'd all be "Mr. Creosote."
 
+ Israelis are efficient in their blockade methods. For example, after 2007 Israel imposed a blockade of Gaza following the election of Hamas as the enclave’s government. Gaza was then walled-off (remaining sequestered to this day) while Israeli officials clamped down on imports, even calculating the minimum calories Gazans needed for survival, and limiting food imports accordingly. In 2010, they had to ease their blockade somewhat following the disastrous Mavi Mamara incident during the “Gaza Freedom Convoy” which sought (unsuccessfully) to bring food and supplies into the Palestinian territory by ship.
 
 

 
 
 

 

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