NEWS OF THE WORLD: UPDATES AUGUST 2023

 

👉 PRIGOZHIN KILLED: In June of this year, Evgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner paramilitary group, led a convoy to Moscow to demand the removal of Russia’s Defense Minister and Chief of Staff. His complaint* was that his troops were given inadequate supplies and equipment during their campaign in the Donbas and their capture of Bakhmut, which was their final battle in Ukraine.  With Prigozhin were several thousand like-minded troops. Fortunately, mediation brought about a (mostly) peaceful resolution and the whole business was resolved within 24 hours. There were no major battles on the road to Moscow, though two Russian regular forces aircraft were downed by the mutineers, resulting in the death of twelve crew members.

 

PUTIN gave the coup participants the options of either going to Belarus or joining the regular army, or quitting. Prigozhin was banished to Belarus and took two to three thousand of the mutineers with him. These paramilitaries would help train Belarusian troops. Most of the Wagner fighters who did not participate in the march joined the regular army or deployed to the organization’s African brigades.

Apparently Prigozhin didn’t get the memo that he was exiled to Belarus because he made several trips to St. Petersburg and inside Russia in the following weeks, presumably on business. It was a strange affair of cat-and-mouse or turning a blind eye to the Wagner chief’s comings and goings. 

 

BUT, ON AUGUST 23, “Putin’s chef”, Evgeny Prigozhin was killed when his private jet crashed on a flight from St. Petersburg to Moscow. He died along with nine other people including senior Wagner commanders and Dmitry Utkin, Prigozhin’s second in command, who is thought to have planned the June mutiny operation. Looks to be a case of what goes around, comes around. ⁺  

THAT SAID, while I feel it was a case of payback, with Russian security services (and ultimately President Putin) probably the culprit, other possibilities exist: Commenting after news reports of the crash broke, Putin said of Prigozhin that he was “a man of complicated destiny”. In other words, the Wagner head had ruffled feathers and made enemies in his time, so one possibility could be internal conflict within the Wagner organization, or it could be rogue military or security services operatives enraged over the killing of Russian helicopter crews by Wagner forces during their June coup attempt, or it could be the same services deciding that Prigozhin was too much of a loose cannon. It could be Ukrainian special forces taking revenge for Wagner’s role in the Donbas fighting, or American or French undercover operatives attempting to disrupt Wagner’s growing African presence.

A FINAL POINT: It does seem to be a bit strange, timing-wise, for Putin to have authorized the killings (if he did); the BRICS summit was currently meeting and only wrapped up on the same day as Prigozhin's plane crash. You’d think Putin would want to present an image to old (and new) members of the organization that Russia was stable as a rock. Prigozhin’s June ‘march on Moscow’ was an embarrassment to him, why draw attention to it, and in such a dramatic way, by having Prigozhin killed during the BRICS summit? One commentator speculated if Putin had wanted to assassinate Prigozhin, why not do it when the Wagner chief was in Africa attending to Wagner affairs and then blame it on jihadis? 

STILL, it could be a simple mechanical malfunction. We will probably never know. [Oddly, the plane crash occurred exactly two months to the day of Prigozhins’ fateful march on Moscow. Coincidence? Probably. But who knows? Ed.]

 

👉 META MEDDLING: BILL-18, the contentious new media legislation that's set to go into effect by year's end seems headed for some sort of chicken fight with media giants Meta and Google. Meta (Facebook), increased its ban of Canadian news permitted on its platform. The online media company said this action was in protest of the soon-to-be law “Online News Act”, which forces tech companies that use locally sourced Canadian news stories to pay the news organizations for their content. In 2021, similar bill was introduced in Australia and Meta also banned locally sourced Australian news stories. In the Australian case, the legislation had not yet passed, and the government allowed the tech giants to negotiate private deals with Australian news organizations. Meta’s ban was subsequently lifted. The terms of the deals are confidential and may not acknowledge any requirement for Meta to ‘pay by the click’ for local news content. Instead, it involved lump sum payments. (Google waited for the Meta's dispute to be resolved before deciding whether it would engineer its algorithms to block local news. Presumably they made similar deal with local Australian news organizations.)

In Canada, the bill has already passed, so there is no room for negotiation as was the case in Australia. The tech companies are (thus far) compelled to adopt a payment scheme devised by the federal government to compensate Canadian news providers. Meta is using the same hard line news blackout policy it used in Australia (with Google again waiting to see how the situation resolves before taking action).  So the feds and Meta are locked eyeball to eyeball.

Meta deems it unfair to be compelled into any agreement where they will be forced to pay per news item posted on its platform, instead of a lump sum settlement (annual payments?). Obviously, the tech giants see the Australian format as better for their bottom lines. 

 

BOTH Prime Minister Trudeau and the Premier of British Columbia have complained, saying it’s a matter of safety that local news be posted via Facebook, especially when devastating wildfires still rage out west. (Meta has launched a “safety check” feature allowing individuals in the affected fire zones to contact friends or relatives via Facebook to tell them they’re okay.)

SO FAR, only Meta has cut service in protest of the new law. Google, baring any settlement, will join Meta when the bill comes into effect, further degrading Canadian news availability. For example:

 

“…a simple search [on Google] for the results of the Jays’ game last weekend would have yielded only coverage from the Detroit news outlets covering the game and none from Canadian outlets."

 

Meta so far is standing firm on its ban. It will be interesting to see who wins this tug of war, and whether Canadians can cope if the country remains “unfriended” by Facebook.

 

👉 BRICS EXPANSION: The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India China, South Africa) summit in South Africa ended on Thursday and by all accounts it was a success for the 14-year old organization. Six new members were elected to what some call a “rival G-7”. They are: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, and Argentina.

 

“The countries in BRICS operate as a loose organization that seeks to further economic cooperation amongst member nations and increase their economic and political standing in the world.”

 

Sixty-seven world leaders attended the three-day event in Johannesburg and 40 countries expressed interest in joining the trade bloc in the future.

 

“What these developments basically mean is that the BRICS have now added a trade majority influence in South America, the Middle East, and have further cemented trade with continental Africa on top of what they already had. It’s a completely logical, globally encompassing trade grouping, and essentially renders the G20 at least partially obsolete."

 

THE GROWING importance of BRICS, whose expanded membership controls 80% of the world’s oil, and who represent 43% of the world’s population, and has a GDP larger than the G-7 (France, Germany, Great Britain, United States, Canada, Italy and Japan), has as its primary mission to develop member countries’ economies through trade, financial aid and developing a system that is free from US dollar hegemony.¹  It does not seek to have its own currency, like the Euro, but rather, it wishes to trade in local currencies instead of using the dollar as the reserve currency for international trade. In the multi-polar world that BRICS envisions, the dominance of a single country’s currency would be unacceptable, and while de-dollarization remains a goal, it is a relatively distant one.

At the Johannesburg summit BRICS countries:

--developed strategies for food security among member states

--expressed concerns over sanctions policies

--supported the strengthening of the non-proliferation mechanism for weapons of mass destruction

--declared the United Nations to be the cornerstone for global diplomacy

--welcomed the development of free trade agreements within the organization and an eventual continental Africa-wide free trade zone

--called for developing countries to have a greater role in international organizational and multi-lateral forums

--support the peaceful resolution of international conflicts through dialogue

 

THE BIG NEWS at the summit was the expansion of the organization to eleven members. The challenge going forward is to incorporate disparate member goals into a framework that allows organization to function as a cohesive whole. If it can’t accomplish this task, then BRICS+ will remain a talk-shop with little real-world clout. It will be interesting to see what countries are next incorporated into trading bloc (and how that acronym is to be written!)

 

“Furthermore, with the addition of the new members, BRICS nations will account for almost half of the world’s food production. In 2021, the group’s wheat harvest amounted to 49% of the globe’s total. The share of the G7 was 19.1%. BRICS will also have an advantage in terms of the production of metals used in the high-tech industry. The 11 nations will account for 79% of global aluminum output, against just 1.3% controlled by the G7. 

 

UPDATE: The U.A.E. (United Arab Emirates) just announced it would be investing capital from its trillion-dollar sovereign wealth fund in the BRICS New Development Bank (NDB). The bank makes loans to developing countries, offering more reasonable terms than either the IMF or World Bank, loans from both of which come with punitive “austerity measures” strings attached.

 

👉 KHAN COUP: An interesting article appeared in the online news site, The Intercept, which provided evidence suggesting Imran Khan’s claim of US involvement in the coup in Pakistan last year that removed him from power and led to him serving a three-year prison sentence, was a valid one.  Khan claimed the US was behind his removal because he conducted an independent foreign policy and had friendly relations with China and Russia. In May this year, his arrest and conviction on corruption charges sparked further protests by his supporters, with harsh crackdowns and jail sentences meted out by the military-backed government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.

A diplomatic cable, published August 9 in The Intercept, revealed “U.S. diplomats pressed for the removal of Khan over his neutral stance on the conflict in Ukraine.” One state department official in the cable is quoted as saying “all would be forgiven” if Khan were removed from office. Khan may have additional “terrorism” charges laid against him stemming from the leaked cable to the press. [The Intercept says the leak came from a source inside the Pakistani military. Ed.] It will be interesting to see if Khan wins his legal battles in time for the 2024 Pakistani elections.² Of course, he may not make it out of prison; in November 2022 he was shot in an assassination attempt during a protest rally.

IN AMERICA, such mendacious legal shenanigans (like those Trump and Julian Assange are dealing with) is called "lawfare". If you destroy faith in the legal system of a republic, you end up destroying the republic.

 

👉 FORMER FRENCH COLONY COUP: NIGER has been in the newS recently with its pro-French/pro-West president recently removed in a coup. ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), with French and neighbouring Nigeria's assistance, is planning an intervention in Niger to restore President Bazoum to power. however, Mali and Bukino Fasa stand with Niger and its new military rulers, so tensions in the region (formally part of French Equatorial Africa) continue to escalate, with the French ambassador being asked to leave and French President Macron ordering his diplomats to stay. The military junta may have its own reasons for taking power last month, but its emphasis on severing France’s neo-colonial meddling in Niger’s affairs may have a lot to do with it. And a lot of that meddling is around uranium, which is highly desired by France for its fleet of nuclear reactors. (U0₂ is a major raw materials’ export of Niger.) 

Will France retain it economic and political sway over the region, or is what’s happening in Niger a sign of things to come? Stay tuned. 

p.s. Earlier this week, another former french colony, Gabon, also had its government removed in a non-violent  coup. That makes six coups in the region since 2020! Why? Is it because French influence in Africa is losing its mojo? Stay tuned.

 

👉 NUKE SAGA CONTINUES: The crippled Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan is scheduled to release treated wastewater into the Pacific Ocean. Though IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) studies have indicated a the release had a “safe” level of radioactivity, which would be diluted to background levels in the sea water, environmentalists, local fishing associations, the governments of South Korea and China have all protested the plan. 

On site at the 2011 tsunami-wrecked facility are over one million tonnes of yet-to-be-treated water used in cooling the reactor core. 

The first release began on August 23, amid protests from regional neighbours and a ban on Japanese seafood by China. Treated water is scheduled to be discharged over a 30-year period. But, you have to hand it to Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishidi, who recently ate fish sourced from the Fukushima region in a public demonstration of the fishery's safety. So, it's all good.  Sushi, anyone? [How about starting a glow-in-the-dark seafood restaurant chain? Just a thought. Ed]³

 

👉 SAUDI NUKES: The long and winding road toward Middle East peace remains long and winding. While the Chinese-brokered Iran-Saudi rapprochement and Saudi backing away from its Yemen involvement are positive developments, Saudi Arabia’s new membership in BRICS may encourage the growth of a civilian nuclear power network in the country with American technology as part of a deal to woo Saudi Arabia back into the US orbit. But is  a nuclear power industry for Saudi Arabia a good thing? No, says Victor Gilinsky in an article in the Bulletin for Atomic Scientists, not if Saudi Arabia also wants nuclear enrichment technology so it can process local (if any) deposits of uranium ore and, as an added bonus,  be able to reprocess spent uranium from its reactors to make plutonium. Just in case.

[Plutonium i.e., enriched uranium, was used in the Nagasaki “Fat Man” bomb. Ed.] These enrichment facilities could make nuclear fuel for bombs.

 

“Somebody needs to stand up. Not only should the United States say no to Saudi enrichment, but Washington should also rethink the entire notion of nuclear power reactors in Saudi Arabia. Such reactors, coupled with a reprocessing facility to extract plutonium from used fuel, which the Saudis will surely want as well, provide the other path to a bomb, a plutonium bomb." (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists)

 

COUPLED with a missile development program and detonation tech, Saudi Arabia could become the world’s 10^th nuclear power. (USA, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Britain, France, North Korea, and Israel.) Saudi Arabia says it only wants a civilian nuclear technology in order to wean itself off coal and oil-generated electricity. It also says it will only enrich uranium if Iran moves to develop a nuclear bomb.

 

“With its constant threat of wars, the Middle East is no place for nuclear reactors. Nuclear reactors in the region have been targeted in aerial attacks a dozen times. Nuclear reactors do not belong in regions of potential conflict.” (BAS)

 

 

IF THE UNITED STATES won’t provide such technology, then nuclear powers in BRICS might, though they may have reservations about facilitating the oil giant’s entry into the atomic club. Either way, the Saudis are looking for a nuclear industry, and whether it will remain a civilian enterprise or be weaponized is a good question. Increasingly, the Middle Eastern kingdom seems in the driver's seat with leverage it can use to gain  necessary technologies and resources and potentially to begin its own array of weapons of mass destruction.

 

"The ultimate argument against a US-Saudi nuclear deal is the crown prince [Mohammed bin Salman, MBS] himself, who is in line to be king…He is a liar and a gruesome killer. Saudi Arabia, for all its modern trappings, is a primitive state with no effective checks on his powers. The king makes the laws, rules by decree...He has powers the British king gave up in the 13^th century. Saudi Arabia has a long way to go before it will be a safe place for nuclear energy." (BAS)

 

Well, enough updates for now. If the world doesn’t blow up, I’ll do more later.

 

Cheers, Jake.

_________________________________________

 

* More likely he was angry over the pending cancellation of Wagner’s lucrative food services contract by Defense Minister Shoigu. Prigozhin’s organization catered food to the military in addition to its paramilitary operations and he stood to lose millions. Due to legalities, Wagner’s troops were to be withdrawn from Ukraine by the end of May and sent to Africa where the paramilitary organization has other operations. Prigozhin wanted to keep his troops in Ukraine as well as his food and supplies ‘gravy train’. When he saw that Wagner’s contract was not going to be renewed, he was furious.

 

+ In an old interview Putin was asked if there was anything he could not forgive.  He said the one thing he could not forgive was “betrayal”. And Prigozhin betrayed him. Was the Russian president responsible for the downing of his former confidant’s jet? Was it an internal explosion or malfunction? Was it a bomb as many suggest? The investigation is in its very early days.

 

1. The expanded bloc’s share of global GDP will increase from its current 31.5% to 37%. In comparison, the share of the G7 group of advanced economies is currently around 29.9%.

 

2. I always like my nuclear states to have some instability. It gives covering their politics an added fission frisson of excitement. Don’t you agree?  

 

3. In the future it may be sink or swim for low-lying nuclear power plants (NPP) like the one at Fukushima: “[R]esearch…suggests that at least 100 US, European, and Asian nuclear power stations built just a few meters above sea level could be threatened by serious flooding caused by accelerating sea-level rise and more frequent storm surges.” Currently there are 460 working commercial NPPs; 50 are under construction with 150 planned in the coming decades.

[I wouldn’t want to be Muk’dor a thousand years from now who will, against the teachings of his tribal elders, journey into the forbidden Bad Waters above what once was Miami’s Turkey Point Nuclear Power Station on a quest to find the Great Glowing Manatee. Ed.]

 

 

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