RANT: IT'S TIME TO STOP POKING THE BEAR. NOW.

 

   MIT Professor  Theodore Postol

CHECK OUT an interesting vid discussion between “Dialogue Works” podcast host Nima Alkhorshid and MIT professor Ted Postol about Russia’s early warning (EW) radar system. It sounds a bit dry but Professor Postal makes it understandable and enlightening, even for a layman like me. So, why the sudden interest in Russian radar? Recall that in late May a Russian radar station, located hundreds of kilometers inside Russia, in the city of Armavir, part of the Krasnodar Krai Federal District was hit by a Ukrainian drone. The full extent of the damage is unknown at this time. This drone attack follows an earlier one in April that put the radar station in Mordovia out of commission. Russia has about a dozen such installations dispersed throughout the country. Their purpose is to act as an early warning system in the event of incoming ICBMs from America. Let that sink in for a minute. Two attacks on radar stations that are set up to warn Russia of an impending nuclear missile attack!

Q: Why the fuk would anyone with two brain cells to rub together think it’s a good idea to ‘blind’ Russia and keep it from monitoring a quadrant of the sky where, potentially, American ICBMs would fly in a strike against their country? 

A: Obviously, they only have a single brain cell among them. Recall that the Russians have over 5,500 nuclear warheads stockpiled and 1,710 deployed. [The Americans have a similar ratio of stockpiled and deployed warheads. Ed.] If those weapons were ever used then it's time to bend over and kiss your ass goodbye!

 

AS I understand it, the Armavir attack was not sanctioned by the Americans who, apparently, were pissed at the Ukrainians for launching such a dangerous raid. But, it is not clear to me what the Americans (the CIA, the White House, etc.) knew about the attack. And concerning the earlier April drone attack in Mordovia, did the Americans know about that prior to the operation? The fog of war hides liars and truth tellers in equal measure, it seems.   

In the hour long video, Professor Postal discusses the differences between American and Russian Early Warning systems. The Americans have a satellite-based system. Using infra-red detectors, each satellite looks straight down at a quadrant of the earth’s surface. They are programed to recognize the tell-tale blast and trajectory of incoming ICBMs. For example, the system ‘weeds out’ cloud formations reflecting sunlight into the stratosphere. The satellites can distinguish between a snowy mountaintop’s reflected light and an ICBM's launch blast. And the system covers the entire globe. It is not hindered like ground-based radars, which cannot see around the curvature of the earth’s surface. The entire globe is thus monitored by a handful of satellites.

 

    Armivir Radar Installation Attacked by Ukraine

RUSSIA, on the other hand, has limited "over-the-horizon" EW radar capability. The radar station damaged in the April Mordovia attack, is unique and the only one of its kind that uses "the Earth's ionosphere to bounce signals back, stretching detection around the planet's curvature." It can detect:

 

“...incoming threats from thousands of miles away, such as long-range ballistic missiles. It can track the launches of cruise and hyper-sonic missiles and the take-off of aircraft from up to around 1,860 miles away, according to Russian state news agency Tass.” (Newsweek)

 

AS MENTIONED, this installation is part of Russia's ground-based EW system where each station sees a different quadrant of the sky up to the horizon. Think of standing in the middle of a dark room with a flashlight. Point your flashlight directly in front of you. You see the far wall and whatever is between you and the wall. That’s kind of how the Russian system works, with a network of stations each covering a quadrant of air space, and the entire system calibrated to monitor 360° of Russian air space and beyond, horizon to horizon. The Armivir radar array monitored the air space over Europe.

POSTAL notes that Russia does not have the technical wherewithal to design and operate a satellite-based system. He says this is due to “historical reasons” and the different path Russian aerospace research took.* But the crucial difference between the two systems is in the warning time each provides. In a short article for the website "Responsible Statecraft", Professor Postal gives an example: If a cruise missile were launched from the Indian Ocean targeting Moscow, there would be several additional minutes gleaned from a satellite EW system versus ground-based radar Russia currently uses that for the most part cannot see over the horizon. The Russian system is handicapped with a shorter range of detection and less warning time. Obviously, any additional time for Russian leadership to decide whether their country is under attack would be helpful. Those extra minutes could be crucial in deciding actions that could save the world from nuclear Armageddon.

 

Kennedy Cabinet Meeting October, 1962

WE'VE ALL read about the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 when for thirteen days the world was on tenterhooks, and the spectre of nuclear war loomed large. That history is well known. We’ve read about JFK’s and Khruschev’s long-distance diplomacy and how a Russian submariner Vasili Arkhipov, came to be known as “the man who saved the world” when he took the decision not to launch a nuclear-armed torpedo at American warships in the waters off Cuba. And there are examples of nuclear mishaps, false alerts, downed A-Bomb carrying airplanes, etc.

 

    Norwegian Rocket  Blasts Off to Study the Aurora Borealis

A LESSER KNOWN incident occurred on 25 January, 1995 in Norway when a group American and Norwegian scientists launched a rocket into a “high north-bound trajectory” to study the aurora borealis over the Svalbard peninsula. The scientific group notified 30 countries about the launch, but the problem was the Russian Foreign Ministry misinterpreted the notice and assumed the information had been passed on to the military. Which it had not. Russian radar operators were not informed about the Norwegian launch. Additionally, the ground-based radar station tasked with monitoring that particular “air corridor” in which the Norwegian missile was launched was the same one that included the ICBM silos in North Dakota and Wyoming, USA. Again, think of your flashlight in a dark room illuminating the distant wall (i.e., the horizon) and the furniture between you and the wall (the Norwegian research rocket and, further afield, the American ICBM launch sites.) 

 

The "Cheget": Russia's Nuclear "Football"

TO Russian radar operators, the rocket appeared to be heading into Russian territory and its north-bound trajectory seemed to indicate an ICBM launch. An imminent attack warning was  issued, and the Russian equivalent of the American “football” was given to President Yeltsin, who, frighteningly, but according to protocol, armed the launch code mechanism, meaning Russia’s entire nuclear arsenal was just a button-push away from launch.

The Russian radar operators feared the missile—if it was indeed a nuclear attack—would explode at a high altitude 'frying' Russian radar detection equipment as a precursor to a full-scale American launch. Radar technicians tracked the assent of the Norwegian rocket as it reached its apogee and began to fall to earth, having gathered scientific information on the aurora borealis then occurring in the stratosphere. The fact that the Russian radar station did not detect any American ICBM launches in their air corridor, lessened concerns, and the alert status was downgraded. The Norwegian missile, from launch to splash down, was in the air less than half an hour. During that time the launch status for Russia’s nuclear arsenal had been at “highest alert”.

 

MY REASON for presenting this history lesson is to remind us that we’ve been lucky so far. In the last few months, the Ukrainian military launched drone strikes, attacking two Russian early warning stations—both critical infrastructure in Russia’s nuclear deterrence system. Why did they take this dangerous action? Probably the brain trust in Kiev thought it might provoke a major escalation from the Russians, thus forcing America and/or NATO to engage directly with Russian forces to save Ukraine’s bacon. 

 

Ted Postol‘s presentation on the differences between America's space-based EW system and the weaknesses inherent in Russia’s ground based, long-distance radar EW system helps us understand just how reckless Ukraine’s leadership has become when it  attacked the radar stations. Russia's response to Ukraine's attacks deep inside Russian territory has thus far been muted, with little public discussion on the matter. I think a "red line" has been crossed and Russia is ready to take the gloves off, in Ukraine and elsewhere. Putin may opt for asymmetric warfare tactics by,  for example, supplying missile arrays to groups and client states hostile to America that, in turn, will strike American bases in Syria or Iraq, or ships in the Red Sea, for example. Who knows? I'm just glad they didn't push "The Button".😱

 

It was a fascinating discussion by Professor Postol and helpful for anyone interested in seeing that the war in Ukraine does not become even more dangerous than it already is.¹

 

Cheers, Jake._________________________________________________________

 

* While Russia has lagged behind in space-based EW technologies, it developed a working and deployable hyper-sonic missile, which can fly at speeds of several thousand km/hr and are impossible to shoot down. I believe they can be configured to carry nuclear warheads. Currently, the U.S. has yet to develop its own version of the missile.

 

1. Ted Postal offers an interesting suggestion: Since it is in the best interest for all concerned that a nuclear-armed state has as much time as possible to decide whether to launch a retaliatory strike, why not give Russia the technology so it can build its own space-based EW system like the United States? Both countries would be on an even playing field, and be able to monitor each others strategic nuclear sites in a more open and trust-building fashion. Why not, indeed. It certainly would lower stress levels in Moscow, but, don't hold your breath folks. It's a great idea, though.

 

 

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GHOUL MATERIALIZES DURING VP SPEECH

 

Obbürgen, Switzerland (DP)— On 15 June this year, during her speech at the Ukraine Peace conference, held at a venue overlooking scenic Lake Lucerne, U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris experienced* what can only be described as a "paranormal" event when a shadowy, half-visible ‘entity’ appeared behind her on the speaker’s podium during the conference’s plenary session. Harris spoke at the conference, reaffirming America’s commitment to procure a “just and lasting peace” for Ukraine and to announce $1.5 billion in aid for the country’s energy sector and its humanitarian situation as a result of Russia’s 27-month invasion. Witness reports vary, but several reporters and attendees claim to have seen a wavering, washed-out, “smoky” human-appearing “poltergeist” or “ghost” standing behind Harris. One reporter recalled that the being appeared to be looking over the VP’s shoulder “as if to check and see she was reading the speech as written.” One secret service agent, who’d approached the otherwise still and lifeless apparition during the Vice President’s speech, was overheard to say: “His eyes were dead, like dead fish-eyes staring at you, staring at nothing, yet seeing everything at the same time. His skin was this pasty white, like a bleached flounder...His mouth was a pale, red scar at the bottom of his jaw. It was terrifying! I thought of the Bible and of Revelations: ‘I looked, and there before me was a pale horse. Its rider was named Death, and Hell was following close behind him.’ That’s what I saw, anyways. That's what I thought I saw.”

The "poltergeist" followed Harris as she left the podium, seeming to glide across the floor until it disappeared into the light of the early afternoon sun.

 

 

Cheers, Jake. ______________________________________

 

* When questioned later by reporters about the incident, Harris commented that she had been unaware of any person or entity standing behind her but felt like there was “a hand on my shoulder” as she read her script speech.

 

1. Yes, I know. Ha-ha. The poltergeist in question is, of course, Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan who attended the utterly useless Swiss gab fest, last weekend. I think of him as a ghoul because that’s what he is—a ghoulish political operative who is responsible, in large part, for Biden’s disastrous foreign policy initiatives in Ukraine, Israel and China. It is apparent to even the most partisan observer that the U.S. president is not in control of the levers of power in Washington. During the D-Day ceremonies in France, earlier last week, he seemed not in control of his own bowels! His senility is on full display, and his public appearances are gaffe-prone and embarrassing. He needs to be in care, not in charge of the world’s second largest nuclear weapons cache. [He also needs to be in custody, and charged with aiding and abetting Israeli war crimes in Gaza, but that’s for another day. Ed.]

Sullivan has been glued like a barnacle to Biden’s backside, for years. Before Joe Biden assumed office, Jake had been the president’s campaign manager. He’d acted as Biden’s security advisor when he was vice president during the Obama administration. He was also Hillary Clinton’s chief-of-staff when she was Secretary of State. He’s a slime-ball political operative and Democratic Party apparatchik whose only calculation, with respect to Biden’s foreign affairs portfolio, is to ensure it advances the re-election chances of his boss. The lack of diplomatic engagement with Russia and drum-beating for war are largely his doing, along with neocon Sec of State, Anthony Blinken [Another feckless tool. Ed] and others in Biden’s inner circle. Blinken and Sullivan are responsible, in large part, for unnecessary and provocative escalations (i.e., long range missiles into Russia) that only prolong the inevitable outcome of the Ukraine conflict (i.e., Ukraine’s defeat.) And the unconscionable green lighting of Israel’s bombardment and destruction of Gaza also can be laid at Jake et al’s door. He should be in the dock charged with war crimes along with the rest of his cabal instead of sitting in the cat-bird’s seat at the White House. It's time for a Nuremberg 2.0.

 

 

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FRIENDLY OGRE

 

DP—Paris, 07/06/2024. French president Emmanuel Macron waves off security guards as an “ogre-like creature” suddenly appeared behind him at the Élysée Palace earlier today. The ‘creature’ was later identified as Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky who’d arrived in the French capital to attend the 80^th anniversary celebrations of VE Day. An unnamed source within the GSP, France’s presidential protection detail, commented how the Ukrainian leader took the presidential guard unawares: “Mon Dieu! One second the president, he was alone on the podium watching the VE celebrations, the next second he [Zelensky] was there behind him. It happened so fast! Before we could react. How did he do that? He was like an ogre from a children's tale! So fast!” Despite the ripples his sudden appearance caused amid French security ranks, President Zelensky and his wife were entertained by the French president and his wife at Élysée, where the Ukrainian head of state petitioned Macron for a “green light” to launch French “SCALP” missiles* deep into Russian territory, potentially striking Moscow or Saint Petersburg. 

 

    A very warm welcome by the French president!

And Zelensky may get his wish, given the fondness that exists between the two leaders, as is evident in the photo taken  of Macron giving Zelensky the traditional “Cupping of Friendship" during a Q & A with reporters after the ceremonies.

 

Cheers, Jake._____________________________________

 

* “Long range Autonomous Cruise Missile System-General Use” SCALP-EG missiles are the French equivalent of the British “Storm Shadow” system.   

 

 

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