NoW UPDATE: OF GOLDEN MEDALLIONS

 

THE AMERICAN PRESIDENT, DONALD TRUMP, has mused since he regained the presidency that he wants to be the “peace president” and would deserve the Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts. Initially, he seemed on his way to Oslo to capture the golden medallion for 2025. For example, his overtures to Moscow to resolve the bloody, three-year conflict in Ukraine got off to a good start when he opened direct talks with Russia in meetings held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Trump’s golfing-buddy, billionaire Steve Witkoff, was made a special envoy and tasked with “making a deal” to end the fighting. Witkoff, while having no experience as a diplomat, has nevertheless ‘moved the needle’ in discussions with the Russians to include examining proposals for a  thirty-day ceasefire, a limiting of strikes on Ukrainian and Russian energy sectors, as well as opening Black Sea shipping for Russian grain and fertilizer shipments.*

 

AS IT STANDS TODAY, however, this proposal seems to be circling the drain. There are several reasons why Trump’s initiatives to end the Ukraine conflict are not gaining more traction with the Russians.

👉First, Russia is in no hurry; it's winning the war in Ukraine that it began in 2022 and seems poised to move to the Dnieper River this spring. 

👉Secondly, there are unresolved questions: How will any ceasefire be monitored along the twelve-hundred-mile line of contact? Who will enforce compliance with ceasefire protocols? What guarantees could be given to ensure Ukraine does not rearm during this period with fresh weapon supplies from the U.S. [Before he left office, Joe Biden fast-tracked additional arms shipments to Ukraine and these are still ‘in the pipeline’. Ed.] and more promised by EU member states who have, for the moment, gone off their collective nutt and are in 'free-fall’ over Trump’s apparent volte face on his support for Ukraine and for NATO in general. 

Note: to date, the U.S. has not announced any further arms or financial support to Ukraine. 

👉Thirdly, what seems clear is that the U.S. no longer beats the drum to which the NATO countries march. The Europeans are waking up to the reality in which the United States will play a significantly reduced role on their continent. After eighty years, they are being forced to learn how to stand on their own two feet, militarily-speaking, without the U.S. acting as ‘big daddy’ in NATO. (More on this in a later post.) It's obvious that the Europeans—notably France, Germany, Great Britain, and the Baltic states—are paddling against U.S. efforts to move into peace talks with Russia, and this is seen in their desperate promises of billions of euros to keep the war going.  

 

Burl Ives "Big Daddy" Cat on a Hot tin Roof

IN THE LONG RUN, it’s probably a good thing for the U.S. to adopt smaller roles in NATO and European affairs. But for now, the prospect of a departing U.S. is dangerously destabilizing, as EU political elites panic over being tossed out by angry voters when the consequences for their foolish, hard-stick policies towards Russia come home to roost. The European Union just passed its seventeenth sanctions package against Russia! GMAFB! The last sixteenth did next to nada and mostly backfired. For example, sanctions on Russian natural gas disrupted the flow of this reasonably-priced energy source, forcing European businesses to purchase more expensive LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) elsewhere. German manufacturing and pharmaceutical industries have been decimated because their products are no longer competitive on world markets. And this was before Trump's new tariff regime that make European exports to the U.S. prohibitively expensive. 

 

👉POINT IS, RUSSIA sees how the EU is bucking Trump’s initiatives for peace in Ukraine by promising troves of new weapons paid from Europe’s dwindling coffers. So, the Russians have no incentive to accept a temporary truce that doesn’t address its core demands, and where they expect continuing arms shipments from the Europeans into Ukraine. Russia’s non-negotiable for any peace treaty is that it must be codified within the framework of a broader European security architecture that is acceptable for both EU and Russian governments. A simple armistice or truce won’t do that. As a case in point, recall: There has been an armistice between North and South Korea since 1953. It's not a peace treaty. Technically, the two are still in a state of war with each other. One can argue this unresolved conflict, with a DMZ (“Demilitarized Zone”) splitting the peninsula in half, has worked to the detriment of Koreans on both sides of the line. 

Russia does not want a frozen conflict like Korea. It wants a resolution that takes into consideration its legitimate security concerns around Ukraine becoming a member of NATO, which is unacceptable to Moscow. Other non-negotiable demands are for a neutral Ukraine along the lines of the Austrian model with a small standing army, and for minority rights protection inside whatever remains of Ukraine. Finally, “denazification” of the country must occur, banning neo-Nazi ideologies and organizations (like the infamous "Azov Battalion").  

NOTE: What Moscow fails to win diplomatically, it will win on the battlefield.

WHICH IS A LONG WAY ROUND to say that negotiating a resolution to the Ukraine conflict is complicated. And the longer Russia’s core demands are ignored, the longer the conflict continues, with more and more Ukrainian territory lost to Russia. 

 

SO, KUDOS TO PRESIDENT TRUMP for opening talks with Russia. Will his team wise-up and deal with Russia properly or will they drag their feet? It remains to be seen if the Americans are capable of negotiating in good faith anymore, and that’s a sorry state of affairs it must be said. Nevertheless, Trump deserves half a Nobel for his efforts. Why half? Let's not forget Gaza. While Trump’s efforts in negotiating a 30-day ceasefire in the Gaza-Israel war was surprising and admirable, he nevertheless continues to supply Israel with all the weaponry it asks for. And now that the ceasefire has been broken with last week’s renewed bombing and blockading of Gaza by the Israelis, the genocide and ethnic cleansing regime Trump temporarily stopped in January is now squarely on his shoulders and is his responsibility. The same goes for the Russia-Ukraine war—both are now officially Trump's wars. He can’t blame Biden. From here on out, Trump is responsible for the carnage in Gaza and Ukraine. Instead of stopping arms shipments to Netanyahu, he sends the Israelis everything they want. He could stop both conflicts with a couple of phone calls. And then there are the Houthis!

The longer Trump supports these wars, the more gold is shaved from his Nobel medal. He’d better hurry before it disappears altogether!😩

 

Cheers, Jake._________________________________

  

* While the Russians agreed to a partial ceasefire to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, with Ukraine agreeing to halt its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, both sides are guilty of breaking the terms of the deal. As for the other part of the deal—a maritime ceasefire to allow commercial shipping  to safely transit the Black Sea—the EU put the kibosh on the initiative by not lifting sanctions on "Russian banks involved in international trade in food and fertilizers,” or to reconnect Russia to the Swift payments system—"a network that facilitates secure financial messaging between banks.” (BBC) The ‘ceasefire’ deal is still in place but is “more honoured in the breach than the observance.” (Hamlet, I.iv) Genuine, lasting peace talks take time. The Korean armistice involved nearly two years of negotiations while the fighting continued. The 1975 Viet Nam peace treaty took years to craft a formula acceptable to the combatants. 

Point being that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are far from over, all the while the fighting and dying continues with scuttlebutt around a major Russian offensive that may be in the offing. Hold onto your hats!