NoW UPDATES: UKRAINE (MOSTLY).

EARTHLY CONFLICTS— I’m sure many of us had a similar reaction recently when we opened our news apps or unfolded the morning paper and the first headline catching our eye is about deaths occurring in the wake of Hurricane Beryl. And we feel a sense of relief! Be honest. Admit it. We’re grateful for a natural disaster. We sit safe and smug in our geographical and temporal hidey-holes while others elsewhere and else-when bear the brunt of Mother Nature. At this writing, Beryl made landfall in Mexico and proceeded to the south-east coast of Texas as a diminished level one hurricane, but still with dangerous winds and rain. Those deaths, eleven so far, 6 more in Texas were caused by a confluence of warm ocean air and a low-pressure system (or by the ire of Poseidon from an earlier age). 

 

AND for a time Beryl takes our attention away from human wars and violence. 

FOR a little while we all share something in common as we look out for storm clouds on the horizon and give thanks for our blue skies. We’re safe until we finish reading about the first named Atlantic storm of the season.*  

THEN it’s back to war, violence and the march of folly we seem to be on at the moment.

 

 UKRAINE—What with all the happenings in the Middle East we seem to be forgetting about the largest war in Europe since 1945. It’s still on. For now. Soldiers and civilians are still dying. Weapons are being sold, fortunes are made, towns razed, and graves are dug. The usual busyness of war.

 

"Vova" waves goodbye to go board the short bus.

👉ZELENSKY'S so-called Peace Conference (sans Russia) last month in Switzerland flopped of course, with French President Macron and other pipsqueak politicos squawking more about making war with Russia and sending their national troops—even NATO¹ troops—into the fray. They have already supplied Ukraine with long-range missiles to potentially launch into Russia. A recent attack on Crimean Sevastopol, saw an incoming ATACMS’s missile, partially damaged by Russian air defense, drop its payload of cluster munitions over a beach area where several civilians were killed, and dozens wounded. Russia promises to retaliate. Point being, there was not enough talk at the Swiss summit on how to craft a realistic peace proposal to submit to Putin that recognizes the situation on the ground has changed. Instead, the brain trust in Switzerland came up with a three part wish list. Earlier Zelensky  peace proposals were 10-point non-starters, (such as: Russia must withdraw to the 1991 boundaries and leave Crimea, and that ain’t gonna happen). 

 

   Please stop! It's embarrassing.

INSTEAD, three items were discussed: Nuclear safety, access to the Black Sea and humanitarian issues like prisoner exchanges, etc. These are important issues, to be sure, but with Russia excluded from the talks, how can any peace treaty be negotiated? This is not a serious proposal; these are not serious people. It takes two to tango and so far Ukraine is alone on the dance floor.

 

ON June 14, a day before the Swiss summit, Putin published his opening bid for a peace proposal.  In it he says the two Donbass provinces, Donetsk and Luhansk, and two other provinces bordering the Donbass, and Crimea of course, are all Russian territory and non-negotiable. That Putin does not mention Odessa in his peace proposal, may indicate there is some possibility still left open for Ukraine to keep the port city and retain access to the Black Sea. However, Putin's proposal was summarily dismissed by Zelensky.  

Granted, I think Putin was trolling Zelensky a little and privately doubted the Ukrainian president would take his offer seriously. But, friends,  Zelensky should take Putin's offer seriously. He really, really should! Putin sees there is some advantage in keeping Ukraine reasonably stable and economically viable post-conflict. Odessa as part of a diminished, neutral Ukraine is better than the country becoming a land-locked, failed, rump state bordering Russia. Access to the Black Sea  (a topic discussed at the summit) would help keep any future Ukrainian state functioning. But, Putin's treaty offer is time sensitive and the Russian president may conclude that only a complete defeat of Ukraine and even harsher terms of surrender are in the offing.  

 

“It is important to note that Putin proposed a peace formula the day before the summit. He agreed to a ceasefire if two conditions are met: Ukraine should forego its bid to join NATO and accept Russia’s annexation of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kerson and Zaporizhzhia.” (Press Insider.)

 

Oh well. C'est la vie! I should note that a number of countries did not attend the peace summit and not everyone signed off on its final communique. In other words, another 'nothing burger' was served up at the Swiss confab last month. 

👉The longer the conflict’s flames are fanned by the Americans and NATO, the greater the likelihood that Russia takes Odessa, expands its coastal land bridge and connects up with Transnistria (a Russian enclave in eastern Moldova.) It could take even more territory if it requires an extended buffer zone to protect Russia's borderlands.

    Victor Orbán

👉Hungary's Victor Orbán, the new President of the European Council², went to Kiev and then Moscow (and then Beijing!)  last week to push for a ceasefire and peace negotiations.  His is virtually the only leadership voice in Europe calling for a ceasefire and negotiations. Orbán has consistently argued for an end to the conflict and to stop arms shipments to Ukraine, something that will only prolong the inevitable (i.e., Russia winning). Of course, his stance is anathema to EU leadership and elites up and down continent, who all march in lockstep to whatever tune the Americans are playing. They hate Orbán! He is a fly in the ointment, an irritant and an obstacle in the way of their subservient, Atlanticist agenda. Bravo to the Hungarian president!

Interesting side note: One commentator suggests that American actions over the last few years were done, in part, to weaken Europe. For example, the sanctions regime placed on Russia by the US and the EU has had the rebound effect of making things more expensive throughout Europe, as industries are deprived of cheaper Russian exports and raw materials. Russian oil is a case in point: Its oil still flows into the EU, albeit less than before, but it must be routed through a third party (like Turkey), so that the fiction of Europe 'turning its back' to Russian oil can be maintained. It costs more, obviously, when Turkey gets its cut, and this greater expense negatively impacts European economies. Another example of America ‘bringing Europe to heel’ so-to-speak, is the bombing of the Nord Stream pipeline that severed  the EU from accessing cheap Russian natural gas. Everybody knows the U.S. did it. But nowhere is  to be heard so much as a peep against their American master across the pond that is making a ton of money selling Europe its more expensive LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas). And Germany, once Europe’s manufacturing powerhouse has been hollowed out, its factories shuttered by blowback from the sanctions regime and from the Nord Stream sabotage. The Europeans have been given a shit sandwich and are expected to smile while they eat it. Pitiful.

    New NATO chief Mark Rutte

NATO HOT POTATO—And the soon-to-be Secretary General of NATO, Dutch PM Mark Rutte, who takes the reins of this hump-backed nag in October is attending the summit in Washington this week. He’s a better politician than NATO’s outgoing Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, but that’s not saying much. He’s chosen for the job because he’s a staunch Russophobe, and we can anticipate from him more ‘baiting of the Russian bear’ to see how far they can push it. So, it’s business as usual for the military alliance that, nevertheless, can be seen visibly fraying around the edges, with Hungary’s Orbán, Turkey and a few others questioning NATO’s relevance and the wisdom of continuing the war in Ukraine, as well as the disastrous sanction regime against Russia, that most alliance members signed on to, and which can arguably be said to have hurt the West more than Russia. 

👉BTW, what’s with the Baltics (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia)? Are these flyweights compensating for being on the small side by barking like the big dogs (but without any teeth)? They’re pushing for NATO to declare war on Russia. Are they crazy? These midgets are stirring the pot, recklessly indifferent to how close it is to boiling over. Please shut the fuck up! NATO is seventy-five years old this year, and yes, there will be back-slapping and circle-jerks galore at the confab in Washington this week. But seventy-five? And don’t forget its raison d’étre, the USSR, is thirty years gone in the rear-view mirror. So, what need we of thee, NATO? It's time to retire, old-timer, before you get us all killed….It’s the 75^th anniversary of the founding of NATO. I doubt if it will be around for its 80^th.

👉GOOD NEWS for the suicide cults in Washington and Brussels: The U.S. has signed bi-lateral security pacts with newbie NATO members Sweden and Finland (and a 10-year SP with Ukraine). The agreements allow American access to military bases in both countries and for facilities to be built there. It looks like the U.S. will be able to deploy a range of military equipment on Finnish bases in the once-neutral nation. Internal politics and fearmongering since the 2022 (provoked) Russian invasion of Ukraine are the reasons why the two Nordic nations abandoned decades of neutrality. Sweden is a bit more hesitant on the U.S. establishing “permanent” bases on its soil and I believe it has said “no” to hosting American missile batteries.

One commentator pointed out that if America were to foolishly attempt to host intermediate-range cruise missiles on Finnish soil, the kind of missiles that can carry nuclear payloads, then the Russians might, in a ‘tit-for-tat’ move, station missiles in its far eastern Kamchatka peninsula in striking distance of Alaska and the West Coast of the U.S. [It’s called “horizontal escalation." Ed.]

 

IN RESPONSE to the two Nordic nations joining NATO, Russia is creating a new army group to guard its previously peaceful borderlands. If missile batteries are established in these two nations and, heaven forbid, nuclear stockpiles, then Sweden and Finland will have put big, fat bullseyes on their backs! And for what? There haven't been any threats coming their way from Russia. Trade and indigenous peoples with their herds regularly crossed the thinly manned borders. Sweden and Finland joining NATO complicates things, and we can only hope that the they will not become a dangerous flashpoint if the military alliance decides to install weapon systems that Russia perceives as threatening.

 

THE UKRAINE WAR is in its final innings. Ukraine is being defeated as Russia methodically pushes back its defenses. The Zelenski regime refuses to negotiate and does not accept any Russian red lines. It’s all or nothing for the Ukrainian president as he attempts to bring in ever younger (and older) cohorts of draftees to fill the country's depleting military manpower reserves. It’s becoming obvious to everyone that Ukraine is in on losing streak, and if it doesn’t bid for peace now, we may soon enough witness the dissolution of the Ukrainian state.

Let’s see what comes out of the NATO summit this week. Probably nothing good.

 

 

Cheers, Jake.______________________________________

 

* But Beryl? What a wuss name for a Category Five Atlantic hurricane! Just sayin’. 

 

1. Recall that Canada has roughly two thousand troops in Lithuania under NATO command. Are Canadians prepared to see our troops on the ground in Ukraine fighting Russians? I think not. Meanwhile, Canada has flushed away committed to Ukraine some $12 billion in military equipment, financial aid and loans, and it’s just signed a 10-year bi-lateral security agreement with Kiev. [Good luck with that. Ukraine won’t last 10 months let alone ten years. Ed.]

 

2. It’s a bit complicated, explaining the rotating EU Presidency. It seems every six months three countries are chosen to develop and coordinate policy for the EU at large. Spain, Belgium and Hungary are currently in the “trios”, each country bringing their own proposals for overall EU governance. Hungary is the chair of this group. I don’t know how binding any proposals are, but I assume there is some mechanism to vote on them in the EU parliament. [In terms of the EU and NATO the image of herding cats comes to mind. Ed.]