Russia/Ukraine—As the ground hardens in war-torn
Ukraine, Russia seems to be making a play in the north-east, pushing back
Ukrainian lines to create a buffer zone for Russian cities like Belgorod that
are close to the border and have been hit repeatedly by Ukrainian artillery and
missile fire. And, it seems, the defensive infrastructure slated to be installed by the Ukraine military in
the region wasn’t. Oopsie! Into whose pockets Where did all the hryvnia (“huh-riv-nyuh”) go? Apparently
not into building tank traps, trenches, and mine fields to slow Russian incursions. Even Zelensky, who
recently visited the area, was surprised there wasn’t a more substantial
defensive line guarding the Kharkiv Oblast and Kharkiv City. Corruption! Thy
name is Ukraine!
IN EASTERN Ukraine this summer,
Russian forces will probably advance to the Dnipro River. From there, it’s
anyone’s guess. Four eastern oblasts (“administrative
divisions”/provinces) have become part of the Russian Federation over the
course of this war (not including Crimea). If Kiev doesn’t end hostilities now
and bid for peace, it will lose two more at least, including Mykolaiv and
quite possibly Odessa. And losing the famous port city would cripple Ukraine’s
economy and turn the country into an impoverished, land-locked rump state.
Which may be what Russia wants, given Kiev's and Washington's refusal to
negotiate a realistic peace deal that recognizes the “situation on the ground”.
Without guarantees of Ukrainian neutrality and no NATO membership, Russia has
no alternative other than fighting to keep its border free from the military alliance’s weaponry. Therefore, it must take greater swaths of
Ukrainian territory to provide buffer zones between it and the surrounding
NATO states.*
UKRAINIAN armies have been
heavily attrited by Russian forces. Manpower shortages, up to this point, have made it difficult for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF)
to maintain the front lines. Even the latest tranche of cash from the United
States won’t save the country's undermanned and increasingly overwhelmed forces
from falling beneath the implacable Russian offensive that many predict will
happen this summer.
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Constipated or worried? Or both?
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IN KIEV, meanwhile, Zelensky refuses to open
peace talks with Russia. [He had Ukraine's constitution rewritten to make it unlawful for him to negotiate with Russia so long as President Putin was in power. Talk about cutting you nose off to spite your face! Ed.] Zelensky continues to
peddle his unrealistic “10-point” peace plan, that he will present in
Switzerland to simps representatives from over fifty nations, this June.
(Russia is not invited, of course, so, what’s the point of this conference? How will it change anything on the ground?) One fly-in-the-ointment around the upcoming Swiss gabfest is the
fact that Zelensky’s term in office is officially ended 20 May. Since he
cancelled elections last year, he will be no longer be head of state
after that date, though the Rada (Ukraine's legislature) will temporarily extend his term of
office, while the country is under martial law. So, will contenders to the throne
in Kiev emerge? According to Russian officials, his lack of legitimacy
makes any kind of peace treaty to be negotiated with Ukraine problematic and legally uncertain, as Putin has
recently stated. So, Zelensky might have to go if calls for a ceasefire and negotiations grow this spring. Whichever way you look at it,
Zelensky’s days in office are numbered. Time to retire to the French Riviera
with your bags of coke and “Benjamins”, little buddy.😎
THE UAF
has lost upwards of 500,000 troops, dead, by some estimates, with many more
injured. So, it matters not a whit how much high-tech weaponry comes their way,
without enough trained soldiers to use it all. It’s a one-way ticket to
Palookaville for Ukraine, and dragooning military-age men off the streets in
this age of the ubiquitous cell-phone camera is a bad look that only creates more resentment
among the population towards the regime.
ON 4 MAY, British foreign secretary
Lord David Cameron told Reuters News that Ukraine had the right to launch British supplied "Storm Shadow" missiles deep into Russian territory. Prior to that, French President Emmanuel Macron had been bloviating on something he called "strategic ambiguity" which meant keeping your opponent guessing what your intentions are, in his case, whether or not France would send military “trainers”
into Ukraine—not “sheep-dipped” soldiers but uniformed French army troops. You would think, when dealing with another nuclear power, that it would be a good idea to be clear on things, so as to not accidentally start WWIII and suchlike. Duh! Both Cameron's and Macron's public statements can be seen as reckless provocations and deliberately heightening tensions with Russia. 👉On May 6 both countries' ambassadors to Moscow were summoned by Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov where they were apparently read the riot act on the possible
consequences for such actions, namely that French troops would be considered
legitimate targets for Russian forces inside Ukraine, and the use of long-range British missiles would be met with retaliation by Russia on British "assets" inside or outside! of Ukraine. France subsequently issued a statement saying it was NOT intending to send uniformed troops to Ukraine. And "Storm Shadow" missiles have have not been officially sanctioned (yet) by Britain on targets inside Russia. Message more or less received.
👉Also on 6 May, Reuters reports: "Russia said on Monday it would practice the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons as part of a military exercise after what Moscow said were threats from France, Britain and the United States." If this doesn't give anyone pause for concern and doesn't suggest to them that maybe we need to do a rethink on the whole let's-keep-prodding-the-Russians-and-see-how-far-we-get game, then it stands to reason that they need to wake up and smell the coffee. PDQ! Dig: Russia is just completing a series of nuclear readiness tests with its neighbour, Belarus, that hosts Russian tactical nukes. Launching conventional missiles into Russian territory, especially missiles like the ACTAMS that can be modified to carry nuclear payloads, is bonkers, especially if the decision to launch such attacks is in the hands of the increasingly unstable Zelensky regime. Instead of a banana, we're handing a bazooka to a monkey.
IT SHOULD be noted that the United States has not officially given Ukraine the go-ahead to use its long-range "ATACMS" missiles inside Russia, though there have been a handful of attacks on Crimea since the missiles began arriving in Ukraine. But just last week, American Sec of State, the ever-feckless Anthony Blinken, said it was at Ukraine's discretion how to use the missiles, an apparent weakening of restrictions the U.S. had previously insisted on. Folks, this poking of the Russian bear needs to stop. Them claws are mighty sharp!
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Wood Engraving, 19th Century
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AND FROM the ‘fly weight’
division of European politics come the Baltic states (Lithuania, Estonia, and
Latvia), all three squawking about the need for direct NATO intervention in
Ukraine, irrespective of the fact that Russia could regard this as an existential
threat and respond with tactical nukes! Could someone please tell
these babes (all three states have female heads of state) to shut the fuk up! [Note: Shit-for-brains Canada has around 1000 NATO troops
stationed in Latvia. They could be turned into crispy crisps if Latvia PM, Evika
Silina, has her way. What a coven of witches! Ed.] 1
AS NATO inches ever closer to
direct conflict with Russia, the alliance is like someone constantly dipping their toe
into the stream to test the water, not realizing the stream is actually a lava
flow and their big toe is on fire! Think before you leap, people!
SOME commentators speculate that
Ukraine will be defeated by the end of the year, others suggest they won’t last the summer. The question is: What will be
left of the place afterward? Of course Biden, when he’s not
having a sundowner moment, wants Ukraine to continue their fight to the last
Ukrainian until after the November election, so he won’t have egg on his
bib face with a clusterfuk involving a NATO proxy
circling the drain, and vids of the Russian flag flying over Kiev.
👉By
November, Ukraine will be "Dead Man, Walking". That's something the U.S. president can
relate to, I guess.
And not to be outdone, America’s favourite attack dog, Great Britain,
also wants the Ukraine war to continue past their parliamentary elections, just
commencing, for similar electoral reasons. After all, it’s awkward explaining to voters why billions in taxpayer money was pounded down the rat hole known
as Ukraine. It’s even more awkward campaigning with an albatross around your neck in the form of
a failed Ukraine 'project', and having to ‘splain WTF went wrong over there and why political elites have had their heads up their asses for the last 2 1/2 years. [For irony buffs, election day in Britain is July Fourth, which also happens to be America's Independence Day, marking America's independence from British rule. Now the roles are reversed with Britain a 'colony' of the USA in all but name. Cheerio! 😉]
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Columbia University Encampment
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USA! USA! USA!—It bodes to be a long, hot summer
for our great neighbour to the south. Presidential election fever is infesting
the land while rationality and commonsense become words blowing like chaff in
the wind. There remain pro-Palestine encampments at some universities, like Columbia in New York. But semesters are ending, students are leaving for home, and graduation
ceremonies are in progress, though there have been cancellations of these
traditional academic events at several universities due to the possibility of
"disruptions" [Gasp! Ed.] from anti-genocide activists. Already over 2,000
students have been arrested across the country and other demonstrators
are threatened with trespass violations, expulsion and other penalties for their
principled stance in support of the Palestinian people of Gaza (and the West Bank). Similar protest encampments occurred in Canada and abroad, as well as similar responses from authorities and police.
👉Will the
student protests foment more widespread actions as the weather warms and
election fever heats up the nation? What will authorities in the U.S. and Canada do in response? Stay tuned.
👉A bill recently tabled in the
U.S. Congress: the “Security Assistance Support Act” was quickly passed in the
House of Representatives and goes to the Senate shortly. It would forbid the President from withholding
military assistance to Israel for any reason. Period. This legislative proposal follows in response to Biden’s
tepid, temporary halt of certain weapons and shells to Israel if it invades
Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza where more than one million Palestinians have been forced to flee.
👉OF COURSE, Israel went ahead and invaded and the U.S.
president signaled his displeasure by ‘slow walking’ some arms shipments (heavy bombs) to Israel, prompting bought and paid for legislators to craft the “SAS Act” which
would effectively handcuff the president’s ability to modify relations between the U.S. and
Israel with respect to armament shipments. Even if the bill passes the
Senate, Biden has said he’d veto it because of the limitations it makes on his
and future presidents' ability to conduct foreign relations.
The old guy in the Oval Office isn't trying all that hard to end the violence because he really doesn’t want to end it, staunch “Zionist” that he says he is. He just
wants to keep a lid on things until after the November elections. Biden doesn't need congressional prompting to send military aid to Israel. He'll defend the Netanyahu government's actions in Gaza until it's politically disadvantageous for him. And it will take really brazen actions by the IDF, or greater public ire, to make him stop supporting Israel.
HERE'S THE RUB:
The two highest courts in the world, the ICJ (International Court of Justice)
and the ICC (International Criminal Court) have formally charged Israel, Israel's Prime Minister, and its Defense Minister with war crimes and a blatant
disregard for human life that the world has seen front and centre for months now. Still,
the United States continues to supply Israel with shells and missiles the
IDF (Israeli Occupation Defense Force) uses to bomb Gaza back to the
Stone Age, in the process killing over 35,000 and injuring 73,000 Palestinians thus far, and making the 25-mile long enclave all but uninhabitable.
Shamefully, there is no consensus at all among U.S. legislators to call for an immediate ceasefire. Only a handful are in favour of denying Israel weapons. But world opinion is gradually shifting, most notably when several countries, including France and Germany, have said they will honor the ICC's arrest warrant for the two Israeli politicians should they set foot on their territory. But so much more needs to be done to rein in Israel's murderous campaign.
EARLIER THIS MONTH, the ICJ published a new ruling demanding an immediate ceasefire and for Israel to open border crossings so aid trucks can enter Gaza (given that the much-ballyhooed three-hundred-million dollar boondoggle Gaza aid pier, built by the Americans to bring in relief supplies by sea, so far is mostly a wet squib). The possibility of widespread starvation in the enclave is becoming a real threat, with the population of 2.3-million Palestinians now 100% dependent on foreign food aid (with the IDF's wanton destruction of Gazan farmland and orchards). NOTE: The Rafah border crossing with Egypt remains closed. Previously, it had been the main conduit of aid into Gaza. The nearby, secondary crossing of Kerem Shalom, between Israel and Egypt, has recently been opened, though Israeli settlers have been periodically blocking aid trucks and destroying food stuffs destined for Gaza. And they do this with impunity and minimal push-back from Israeli police and military. Despicable behaviour!
👉Israel does not recognize the International Court of Justice's authority and is among only a handful of nations that are not signatories to the World Court's founding convention. Predictably, Israel ignored the ICJ's latest ruling, as it has ignored the previous ones.
BOMBS AWAY!—A short note or two to end this
post. Both Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, as well as the new House Speaker,
Mike Johnson, are now lobbying for American-made long-range ATACMS missiles be
used by Ukrainian forces to attack sites inside Russia itself. Missiles. Not diplomacy. Folks, let’s just keep threatening Russia, using weapons
the U.S. said it would never send to Ukraine in the first place. Until they did. This reckless and incoherent
U.S. administration is playing chicken with a nuclear power! What could go
wrong? BY
THE WAY, the more I listen to House Speaker Johnson, a born-again Christian,
the more he reminds of "Commander Winslow" from “The
Handmaid’s Tale”. He’s slick, groomed, speaks in a level tone, but his oozy
zeal comes tinged with the bile of fanaticism, and he seems like someone who
always has one eye on the “End Times”. He’s scary and just two heartbeats from the
nuclear codes. Get rid of this nut! INCIDENTALLY, in 2015, as a
lawyer, Commander Johnson brought a religious discrimination suit against the state of
Kentucky on the side of the Ark Encounter theme park, where the theory of
Evolution gets punched in the face, and where helpful dioramas
teach adults and children, alike, about biblical history circa 6,000BC when dinosaurs and humans
boarded Noah’s ark, two-by-two.
ASSANGE REPRIEVE—After years of legal wrangling,
Julian is given an additional appeal in his extradition hearing. The British
High Court granted Assange the right to make an additional appeal to quash the
request by the Americans that Assange be remanded into
American custody to stand trial in the U.S. for his alleged crime of espionage and other (trumped up) charges.
In 2010 he published what came to be known as the “Collateral Murder” video which
was evidence of American military personnel committing war crimes in Iraq. He published
leaked documents that greatly embarrassed the Bush administration and earned
him the never-ending ire of the American political establishment. Long story short: Julian
spent seven years in the Ecuadorian embassy in London, and subsequently five more years in Belmarsh maximum security prison, as his court battles continue.
Why on earth is he in Belmarsh, a prison designed to house murderers, rapists and other dangerous criminals!? While the decision by the British High Court was unexpected and is
good news, what this means for Julian is another year in prison as the appeal
process goes ahead. (Why can't he be granted bail and sequestered under house arrest with an ankle monitor if need be?) PULITIZER PRIZE-WINNING journalist Chris Hedges thinks the Americans deliberately dropped the ball in this latest appeal to the British High Court challenging Julian's extradition to the U.S. in order to avoid buckets of bad publicity should Julian be brought before an American court during the presidential elections, where arguments
around journalistic freedom and free speech are a ‘third rail’ in American
politics. (The same goes for the British Conservative
government who would rather see Assange gone or at least muffled in legalities,
as its own election campaign launches. Knaves and ne’er do wells, the lot of
them! Hedges feels, and I agree with him, that the Americans' purpose in keeping up their “lawfare” persecution of Julian is so that
he’ll die in prison from ill-health or suicide. They are truly despicable human beings! Julian has been confined for 12 years for revealing information that is
absolutely in the public’s interest to know. And for telling the truth he must
die. RFK Jr. also feels strongly about Assange's legal plight, saying during a campaign tour of the nation's capital last week:
“Assange should be celebrated as
a hero for doing exactly what journalists are supposed to do, which is to
expose government corruption… We shouldn’t be putting him in prison, we should
have a monument to him here in Washington DC.” Kennedy went on to say that
the same is true for Edward Snowden, who exposed illegal spying by the NSA,
calling the US whistleblower “a hero, not a criminal.” (RFK Jr. 25 May, 2024)
RECENTLY, the Australian
government has been making nice mouth noises in support of Julian. But talk is
cheap, and politicians are the cheapest bastards around. So, we’ll see.
Cheers, Jake.___________________________________
* IN A RECENT INTERVIEW, former
CIA analyst and peace activist Ray McGovern gives further evidence that sheds
light on why Russia finds it unacceptable for Ukraine to become a NATO member,
and why it feels such an outcome would be an “existential threat”. Ray reminds us that on 30
December 2021, in a phone call with the Russian president, Biden assured Putin that
America “had no intention of deploying offensive strike weapons in
Ukraine.” This assurance, given days after Russia had sent a draft treaty to
Washington to deal with the ongoing tensions around Ukraine, was seen as a
welcome acknowledgment of Russia’s security concerns by the U.S. Moscow looked forward to
a successful negotiation that would lead to peace in Ukraine after years of internecine conflict which left thousands dead in the breakaway provinces of the Donbas. HOWEVER, in
January 2022 (Ray tells us), Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov revealed in a
recent interview that the American Sec of State, Antony Blinken, in a January 2022 meeting: “insisted that U.S. medium-range missiles could be deployed in
Ukraine, and only that the U.S. might be willing to limit their number.”
THE IMPORTANCE of Blinken’s
brazen walk-back from Biden’s December promise is that these types of missiles are
nuclear capable, in other words they can deliver a nuclear payload, and if
installed in Ukraine, a strike on Moscow would be less that 10 minutes away. This
was unacceptable to the Kremlin and seen as provocative and another example of American
duplicity. It should be noted that Russia invaded Ukraine the next month.
Neutrality for Ukraine (along the lines of the Austrian model)
may very well have prevented the war and saved the lives of hundreds of
thousands of Ukrainian soldiers, and leaving the Ukrainian polity largely intact.
Q: If the shoe were on the
other foot, from Washington's perspective, what would be the result if China
installed similar missile batteries in, say, Windsor Ontario? A: An
ashtray.
1. HERE’S A
CHILLING interview from the podcast: “Daniel Davis Deep Dive” between retired American Army
Colonel Danny Davis and academic Ted Postol on the consequences of using low
yield nuclear weapons on the battlefield. Professor Postol’s additional
commentary on the new Russian nuclear torpedo, “Poseidon”,
why it was developed and its possible, devastating effects on the coastlines of
North America is truly frightening and should make
those of us who have forgotten what using such weapons actually means, to strive to better understand why it is needful for all of us to use any and every peaceful means we have available to us to
limit, and if we’re lucky, eradicate this truly existential (no fucking around) threat to all of us.
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