NoW UPDATES FEBRUARY, 2024

GAZA, OF COURSE—It’s been over four months since Israel launched its military operation in Gaza in response to the 7 October attacks by Hamas militias on Israeli military encampments and settler kibbutzim bordering the Palestinian enclave. Approximately 1200 Israelis were killed and around 230 taken prisoner. Thus far, Israel’s retaliatory actions during its “Operation Iron Swords” have killed nearly 30,000 Gazans and wounded or injured nearly 70,000. Currently, nearly 80% of Gaza’s 2.3 million inhabitants are displaced, with over one million forced to flee into southern Gaza, making a humanitarian catastrophe there all but inevitable. Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu vows he will send his IDF (Israel Defense Forces) into the overcrowded city of Rafah, which borders Egypt, if the hostages were not released by 10 March, the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. 

It is difficult not to see Israel’s actions over the last four months as anything other than ethnic cleansing, even rising to the level of what many believe is a genocide. Bombing and launching ground attacks into densely populated Rafah is sure to increase the death toll by multiples. Where do the Gazans go? They can’t return to their homes in the north—over half the buildings in the Palestinian enclave have been turned to rubble. During Israeli’s bombing campaign it’s estimated that between 144,000 and 175,000 buildings in the Gaza Strip have been destroyed, including hospitals, clinics, residential neighbourhoods, schools, the university, mosques, churches, businesses, civic buildings, key infrastructure, even farmland.

 

Their homes are gone. Israel has succeeded in making half of Gaza inhabitable and is apparently hell bent on making the remaining part equally unlivable. The Israeli goal is clear: to permanently remove Palestinians from their homeland once and for all, and to create such a humanitarian crisis in southern Gaza that Egypt will be forced to relent and take in the bulk of Palestinians crammed against its border. There is some evidence to suggest that Egypt is preparing for such an eventuality. They have been constructing a walled enclosure near the border, presumably to corral and detain the fleeing Gazan population. There are over two million Palestinians. If Israel accomplishes its goal of ethnic cleansing Gaza, the Egyptian refugee camp will be one of the largest in the world, and once removed, they will never be allowed to return.

RECALL that, following the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) preliminary finding on 26 January that Israel may be committing the war crime of genocide, the country was given one month to present to the court how (or whether) it is complying with six court injunctions also issued at that time. That deadline comes soon.

IT MAY NOT come soon enough because yesterday the United States, for the third time since the bombardment of Gaza began in October last year, has vetoed in the United Nations Security Council (SC) an Algerian motion demanding an immediate ceasefire. The American rationale for its unconscionable stance was that an immediate ceasefire would jeopardize sensitive hostage exchange negotiations being conducted with Hamas. The vote in the SC was fifteen to two with the U.S. casting its veto and poodle Britain abstaining. (There are five permanent members of the Security Council along with 10 temporary member nations. The permanent members [U.S., Britain, France Russia, and China each has a veto. Temporary members do not. Ed.]

 

There are reports that Israel has increased its military presence along Lebanon’s border with fears the IDF may launch a major operation against Hezbollah militias possibly sparking a wider, regional conflict. As for Gaza, the Israeli military appears poised to launch its invasion of Rafah, the only city of any size remaining in the enclave, now swollen by nearly one million refugees from the south. There is a growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza with critical shortages of food and potable water. There are still around 300,000 Palestinians still in northern Gaza, who are in dire straits. Disease is a growing threat, along with starvation. Yet the United States, with its toady entourage of vassal Western states (Canada, proud cheerleader for American imperialism, is shamefully included) have suspended funding for UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) because Israel claims that 12 members out of agency’s the 12,000-strong membership were implicated in the 7 October attacks. Proof of their guilt has not been made public, and it should be noted the accusation came a day after the International Court of Justice’s 26 January interim ruling, with some commentators suggesting the revelation was meant to distract attention away from the ICJ’s interim ruling. The accused UNRWA staff were dismissed, and the agency is investigating. BUT, taking funding from the major relief organization in Gaza responsible for ensuring the enclave’s food and medical supplies is completely unacceptable and, in my opinion, enabling a war crime, when the whole Palestinian population is made to suffer because of these yet-to-be-proved allegations. Even if some members of the relief agency were involved with the Hamas militants on 7 October, does that mean people are meant to starve or die from wont of needed medication if UNRWA cannot do its job? The world is watching what may someday be recorded in history books as a twenty-first century genocide and what, at the very least, is ethnic cleansing. Shame on us. [Incidentally, Brazil has recalled its ambassador to  Israel, after a diplomatic row sparked by President Lula's comments likening the war against Hamas militants in Gaza to the Nazi genocide during WWII. Ed.]*

 

JULIAN ASSANGE—Wednesday was the final day of in Assange’s appeal case against extradition to the United States on “espionage” charges. If the two High Court judges rule against Julian, he could be sent to the U.S. in a matter of days to stand trial and if he is found guilty could be sentenced to 175 years in prison. We will know shortly when the judges make their ruling. His ‘guilt’ was publishing (he was acting in his role as publisher of WikiLeaks), in 2010, the Afghan War logs and the horrific Iraqi “Collateral Damage” video the American government says was harmful to the security of the United States. More to the point, the Wikileaks document dump of leaked government files revealed lies, malfeasance and war crimes on the part of the American government its military. It was a deeply embarrassing exposé that garnered for the courageous publisher the eternal enmity of the American “deep state”. Assange is an Australian citizen. Therefore, how can he be charged with espionage by the United States, a country he’d only visited on two previous occasions? He could even be charged with treason (which comes with the potential death penalty) if the United States decides to add further charges once he is on U.S. soil. Julian has been confined for over ten years—first, in 2012, when he sought asylum in the Ecuadorian embassy in London until 2019 when he was forcibly removed and sent to Belmarsh maximum security prison where he has been confined ever since. His health is poor; his mental state fragile. He may not survive extradition to the United States. He is married with two children he has not seen as a free man. His is a personal tale of endurance against incredible odds. If Assange is extradited and forced to stand trial in the United States, it will be another blow for him, perhaps a fatal one. It will also be a blow, perhaps fatal as well, for press freedoms world-wide. 

If the U.S. is successful in committing Assange to prison for doing his job as a publisher, by publishing information patently beneficial for the public to know—if they get away with murder—killing in America the First Amendment rights of a free press and perhaps Julian himself, soon other countries will mimic the Americans with harsher laws on whistleblowers and the journalists who publish their secrets. Then where will we be?

 

UKRAINE ON THE BRAIN—There has been a recent shakeup at the top of the Ukraine military with General Zaluzhny being replaced by Colonel-General Olevsandr Syrinskyi after a day or two of drama in which Zaluzhny appeared to defy President Zelensky, refusing to step down. It was a definite uh-oh moment for Mr. Z, I’m sure. But the new commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, Syrinskyi (aka “Butcher”, a moniker he was given by his troops who view him as someone who sends his men into meat grinders a bit too readily), took the job just in time to accept responsibility for the Ukrainian retreat from the heavily fortified city of Avdeevka. Incidentally, there are reports that units of the Neo-Nazi Azov Battalion refused to engage with the Russians in the final battle there. It may have been a ploy by Zelensky and Syrinskyi to remove elements in the military, like the Azovs, that pose a threat to the president and his new commander by sending them on a one-way trip to the battle zone. Former military chief Zaluzhny was generally regarded positively by the soldiers under his command, including hard right elements. 

 

IN THE PHOTO, President Zelensky looks even more shrimp-like than usual standing beside General Zaluzhny. The fired Ukrainian military chief, for his part, looks like he could pop the president's head like a cork if he ever got him in a headlock. Either that or practice his defenestration skills on the hapless Zelensky. By the way, Zaluzhny looks waaay too happy in the photo. It’s like he’s already measuring curtains for the presidential suite and picking out office furniture. Point is, Zaluzhny may be a player in future Ukrainian politics as a possible successor to Zelensky. In any case, it may be time for the presidential family to take that ski holiday in Switzerland they've been planning. Just sayin’.

Avdeevka was the fortress city from which Ukrainian troops shelled the Donbass city of Donetsk for years. The question now is whether Russia will advance west to the Dnieper River and beyond. Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and current deputy head of Russia’s National Security Council, and a potential successor to President Putin, stated recently on social media that Odessa and Kiev have “Russian roots” and may be slated for conquest as Russian forces roll up a weakened and demoralized Ukrainian army. The longer the conflict continues, the greater the risk for Ukraine becoming a dysfunctional, land-locked, agrarian rump state.

 

THE EU, after much dicking around, has locked itself into a multi-year, multi-billion-dollar arrangement with Ukraine to support its civilian and military structure. Also, there is a potential fifty-to-sixty-billion-dollar Ukraine aid package currently stalled in the U.S. House of Representatives, possibly fueling further bloodshed and loss of life. F-16s fighter jets are being prepped and Ukrainian pilots trained in NATO countries to fly them. These planes can carry nuclear gravity bombs. Question: Where will these planes take off from? From inside Ukraine? From a NATO country? Dimitry Medvedev writes that such a move is a dangerous escalation which could have catastrophic consequences. We would do well to listen, and to demand that our governments stop funding Ukraine’s futile war efforts before it’s too late. ¹

Canadian PM Trudeau is in Kiev this weekend to attend a ceremony marking the start of the third year in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He also inked a "security assistance" deal with Kiev to the tune of three-billion loonies. Pouring money down the rat-hole of Ukraine might make the PM puff out his chest with pride but it merely prolongs the inevitable and dooms more young Ukrainians to the deaths. Stop joining circle jerks, Mr. Trudeau, and demand peace negotiations instead! 

 

FARMER PROTESTS CONTINUE—In the past few months there have been farmer protests in many European countries. The reasons vary from country to country, but green policies promoted by the EU parliament in Brussels have drawn the ire of farmer groups and unions. With upcoming EU elections this year and national elections in several countries, politicians are wary of a “greenlash” (“green backlash”) from the continent’s farming sectors. For example, the controversial pesticides reduction initiative formulated by Brussels has been put on hold because of the backlash from farmer organizations who argue their crops will be damaged and harvests made smaller. As mentioned in an earlier post, the green initiative in the Netherlands to cut nitrogen emissions by increasing taxes on fertilizer use and animal husbandry operations, led to the creation of a pro-farmers’ party in the country’s senate.

 

“While exact grievances vary by country, Europe’s farmers broadly say they are being pounded by a storm of converging pressures: a surge in production costs and drop in global food prices; cheap agricultural imports that have flooded their markets, namely from Ukraine; and now also a mix of national and European Union agricultural regulations targeting the farmers’ subsidies and use of pesticide and fertilizer.” (Foreign Policy)

 

    BERLIN, JANUARY 2024

The chart [click to enlarge] is a helpful guide to the variety of complaints that European farmers have with their national governments as well as with Brussels. Thus far, the protests have influenced the implementation of some green climate policies at both a national and EU level, though "net zero" initiatives and "de-industrialization" policies have made significant inroads in Europe. It is possible that Canadian farmers may take a page from the playbook of their European counterparts this year. Similar federal legislation to cut nitrogen emissions from farms in Canada is now being promoted by the federal government on a “voluntary” basis. So far. It will be interesting to see whether there are similar protests in Canada going forward.  

 

DUMFUK 101—This pic is a spit of land, part of the Kinmen islands, which is visible from the port city of Xiamen in eastern China, on the Chinese side of the Taiwan Strait. It is also a place where American troops have been conducting military "exercises". The Kinmens are less than 10km from mainland China and were the setting for battles between the communist forces of Mao Zedong and the nationalist army of Chaing Kai-shek in 1949 Chinese Civil War. Both sides claim the tiny island group. It is the height of hubris to constantly 'poke the bear' and assume nothing will happen. But the decrepit leadership and disreputable foreign policy bureaucracy in Washington may get their wish—a war with China—but it may be one they weren't expecting. 

What a clown show!

 

Cheers, Jake.______________________________________

 

 
* On the 21 February at the ICJ, hearings began on another motion, this one filed in 2022, which seeks clarification on the legality of Israel’s occupation of Gaza and the West Bank since the 1967 war. This could have huge significance for international law if the ICJ in the months and perhaps years to come, rules that Israel is illegally occupying Palestinian lands, which would entail an adjustment of Israel’s borders back to pre-1967 borders. Of course, this would be a non-starter for Israel. It would never voluntarily withdraw from occupied Palestinian lands. But, in the eyes of the world, Israel would be seen as a breaker of international law and a pariah state.   

This comes with consequences. 

 

“The U.N. General Assembly passed a resolution in December 2022 with 87 states voting to seek the ICJ's non-binding opinion on the legality of Israel's occupation since 1967. Some 26 members—including Israel and the U.S.—voted against the resolution while 53 abstained.”

 

 The wheels of justice grind ever-slowly.

 

 1. Canada, the ever-ready toady, plans to send the Czech Republic some thirty-million dollars to help it locate and ship “up to” 800,000 artillery shells to Ukraine that are scattered around Europe’s armories. Hope they find them soon. Russia produces up to two-million shells per year and has been doing so for some time.

 

 

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