RANT: TO RUSSIA WITH...LOVE?

 

 

WINTER FINALLY ARRIVED, more or less, in my neck of the woods, though it came the better part of a month behind schedule. Where I live, by January 1st we’re usually up to our eyeballs in snow and would have been since early December, as a rule. And so, this year Christmas came and went, gifting just a whisper of the white stuff for under the tree. The weather mostly reminded me of early spring before the return of all the colours, with dull, dreary, overcast days, and the ground displaying that faded, boggy aspect that makes it an effort even to look out the window. SO FAR, we haven’t had a big blow or deep freeze* that we’d all be accustomed to by now. The weather has been chilly at best, making the town's annual ice-fishing regatta, whose colourful huts perch atop the deep, normally frozen, waters of the bay, just a gleam in the eye for anglers of those aquatic vertebrates. The lake is only partly frozen. Most ice fishers remain on shore.  IT MUST BE PUTIN’S FAULT. Like everything else. 

 

    Not this year!

I WROTE THE ABOVE A WHILE AGO. It’s early February and winter has yet to arrive to any degree. The temperature dropped to minus 20˚C for a bit and we got a bit of snow but most days have been nearer to 0˚C or warmer. There’s open water in parts of the bay , with only a few brave souls set up for ice fishing out there. As February continues, so also continues the war in Ukraine, which will mark its one-year anniversary in a couple of weeks. Congrats! Many happy returns!

 

 

 

MY INEXPERT IMPRESSIONS:

 

--THAT THIS IS REALLY a war between Russia and NATO (or the collective West). It’s not being waged to save Ukraine. As Secretary of Defence for the United States, Lloyd Austin said recently on a trip to Poland, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine is meant to weaken Russia “to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine". This may seem neither here nor there, but if there ever was a direct conflict between Russia and NATO, it would be disastrous for Europe and could potentially escalate into a nuclear engagement.

--THAT NATO IS A SPENT FORCE, well past its sell-by date, and the military alliance of thirty countries (including Türkiye, Canada, and the U.S.), founded in 1949, is fraying at the seams. For example, there’s the cock-up around Türkiye withholding its approval for Sweden’s bid to join NATO unless the Scandinavian country turns over Kurdish asylum seekers that Türkiye claims are terrorists. MEANWHILE, Greece refuses to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine because it might need them in a potential conflict with Türkiye! Both countries are NATO members. So much for ‘unity’.

And RUSSIA is forming new battle groups along its borders with Finland and Sweden, clearly anticipating the two countries will eventually join NATO. How is adding two neutral Scandinavian countries to the military alliance in any way a good thing? Aren’t tensions high enough as it is? HOWEVER, NATO’S BARK may be worse than its bite. Save for the American contingent stationed in Europe, most member nations—except for Poland—would have trouble deploying significant, combat-ready armies battalions, and their armouries continue to be emptied in a mad effort equipping Ukraine for a war whose outcome is all but ordained. 

--THAT INSTEAD OF PURSUING PEACE through diplomatic channels, Europe and the collective West funnel munitions and supplies to a side that will inevitably lose. 

--THAT THIS WAS ENTIRELY AN ENTIRELY preventable war, had diplomacy and the quest for good relations been foremost in the minds of this sorry crop of political leaders we’re currently saddled with.

--THAT ANOTHER CLOWN SHOW IS THERE for all to see in the recent and ludicrous tank saga, whereby European countries are scrambling to find serviceable German-made Leopard-2 tanks to send to Ukraine. First, they brow-beat Germany into coughing up a dozen or so from its limited inventory. (It may get older, Leopard-1 tanks out of mothballs and send them instead.) Then the  rest of Europe, save for pit-bull Poland, sits on their hands when it comes time to sending their own armour into the fray. Portugal, for some reason, is sending two tanks (Thanks!) that it found lying around. While CANADA, ever the American lapdog, has dutifully shipped two Leopards to Poland and promises to send two more. Be still my beating heart! I’m sure these (few dozen?) tanks will make all the difference. JUST HOW MANY tanks the Europeans will ultimately send (a hundred? more?), and how up-to-date and functional they’ll be, is anyone’s guess. The United States has promised to send thirty-one of its modern, Abrams-1 tanks. Their arrival date TBA. Don't hold your breath!

 

SOME COMMENTATORS SUGGEST the tank FUBAR is merely preformative, and that any tank formations the collective West ultimately cobbles together are for show, to prove they are  behind Ukraine for “as long as it takes”, as 'bats-in-his-belfry' Biden is wont to say. Instead of working towards a negotiated peace, they double-down by supplying Ukraine with more weapons and ammunition in a hopeless bid to create a ‘second Afghanistan’ for Russia. As Political Science and Geopolitics Lecturer Aref Alobeid notes:

 

“Ukraine is slowly being turned into a second Afghanistan…When the Russians entered Afghanistan, they were seen as a huge empire. Ten years later they were defeated and scattered. I believe the Americans are trying to achieve the same scenario here. [Italics mine] If the war lasts, say, another five years, the Russian economy will collapse. The Americans are not in a hurry, nor are the Europeans. Economically Russia is weak. Their economy is the size of South Korea’s.” (aljazerra)

 

Their goal is simple: They want Russian public opinion to turn against Putin so that he can be removed from office. Good luck with that! His approval rating is in the enviable mid-80s. The neocons in Washington and Brussels want regime change in Moscow. That's what this horrible war is ultimately about.  But like Alobeid, they too have underestimated Russian military capacities and its ability to withstand economic sanctions. Putin isn't going anywhere, and such a goal is absurd and dangerous.(Question: Why does the West assume any successor to Putin would be less hawkish? Has anyone read Dimitry Medvedev’s twitter feed lately? The former Russian President and Prime Minister (and current Chair of the Russian Security Council) is  touted as a future presidential pick when Putin retires. Dimitry is hardcore. Don't fu#k with him! Oh, yeah, don't forget 5,000 or so nuclear warheads Russia holds in its arsenal. But let's throw them all into a blender and see what happens! What could possibly go wrong?

--THAT THROUGH WORDS AND ACTIONS, Western leaders attempt to obfuscate their complicity in provoking this terrible conflict in the first place. This does not mean we condone Russia's invasion of its neighbour, just that there is a long history of provocation that at least makes it understandable. Nobody is wearing a white hat in this rodeo, especially the Cowboy-in-Chief, Zelensky.

 

--THAT POLAND MAY BE A WILD CARD in all this. They’re currently mobilizing two to three hundred thousand troops for “defence” purposes. This should be worrisome to watchers of the conflict because Polish leadership has been very vocal in its calls for more munitions from its allies to shore up Ukraine’s rapidly depleting stocks. Furthermore, Poland may be contemplating a bid to take back territories in western Ukraine that were historically part of Poland and which were lost to the then-USSR after WWII. Revanchism⁺ is alive and well in Eastern Europe! IN ADDITION, any Russian military operations in a disputed western Ukraine, should Poland indeed stake its claim, might be the trigger that brings NATO into direct conflict with Russia. Poland, a NATO member, is playing a dangerous game.

 

“Poland has ruled some territories that are now part of Ukraine at different times in the past, most recently between the two world wars. Western Ukraine, including the city of Lviv, were absorbed into the Soviet Union at the end of World War Two.” (Reuters)

 

--THAT IN THE MEANTIME, GERMANY DEBATES whether to increase its military budget to 2% of GDP, in line with NATO’s (i.e. America’s) expectations. HOWEVER, its current chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is weak, and blows hot and cold over this and other issues, almost daily. In the past year, due to foolhardy EU sanctions against Russia, Germany (and Europe in general) has crippled its industrial base and burdened its economy and people with sky-high energy costs as it scrambles to lock-in oil, natural gas, and coal contracts to replace cheap Russian fossil fuels that are no longer available. The United States, a friend to the bitter end, stepped up to the plate by helpfully supplying some of the continent’s natural gas needs—at three to four times the cost! (Oopsie! With friends like that, who needs enemies?) 

It’s as clear-cut an example of shooting yourself in the foot that I’ve seen in a looong while!

 

--THAT LAST FALL, Germany was humiliated by the sabotage of its Nord Stream natural gas pipeline built to receive Russian gas. Few are saying the obvious—that Germany’s ‘ally’, the United States, is behind the bombing. Some commentators suggest the pipeline was blown up to constrain Germany from any possible rapprochement with Russia. And with the further humiliation of being brow-beaten by the Baltic states into sending German tanks into Ukraine (not a good look!), Germany’s relationship with Russia is at an all time low. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!¹  By-the-way, does anybody think it’s a good idea to have an angry and isolated Germany, stewing over a pot of grievances, past and present, in the centre of Europe? How’d that work out last time?

FINALLY, IN A SLIGHTLY MORE POSITIVE VEIN, it's interesting to note that mainstream media has begun, ever-so-slowly, reporting on the need to end the conflict and start peace talks with Russia. That said, there’s a long way to go before public opinion shifts to the point where governments will feel it expedient to open constructive dialogues with the warring parties and implement policies that will set the stage for genuine peace talks.

I BELIEVE THAT WAR is not a normal state of affairs for human beings, and that it’s about time we found our 'normal' again before it’s too late. 

OF COURSE, there’s much more to be said about the war in Ukraine, but I’ll stop for now. I want to get outside while the sun is shining and before the fu#king missiles start flying!

 

Cheers, Jake.

________________________________________

* And yes, I know, there are parts of our country that really freeze and pile up the flakes, and where minus 30˚C is Bermuda shorts weather because, you know, it’s a dry cold, dearie. I bow before their stoicism.

 

+ Revanchism—"a foreign policy aimed at revenge or the regaining of lost territories.  2. a desire or support for such a policy." (Miriam-Webster.)

 

1. IT’S BEEN SUGGESTED that strong Russia-Germany ties through trade and so on, would weaken American influence on the continent.  And that's a no-no for the neo-cons currently inhabiting the swamp known as Foggy Bottom. IN ADDITION,  recent tax reforms in America make it attractive for European companies to re-locate to the U.S. So,  along with blowing up pipelines, the Yanks are doing a splendid job de-industrializing Europe and keeping the continent subservient and increasingly impoverished. Righto! (P.S. When will European politicians grow a pair and say enough's enough?)

 

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/5/russia-ukraine-war-military-dispatch-may-5-2022

 

 

    2022 CRINGE PHOTO OF THE YEAR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FREE JULIAN ASSANGE! FREE JULIAN ASSANGE! FREE JULIAN ASSANGE!