NEWS OF THE WORLD : UPDATE

 

IN LEBANON, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is set to give a speech on Friday, November 3. This will be his first public statement since the conflict in Gaza began early last month.

The organization he heads, Hezbollah, is a large, well armed and funded Islamic militia in Lebanon that has fought Israel previously (2006). Thus far, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged only minor missile fire, but the northern region of Israel that borders Lebanon has seen most of its population relocate to safer digs in the south. The question is, will Hezbollah join with Gaza’s Hamas and open a northern front in the war? Will Nasrallah announce such an undertaking in two days? Observers say he may lose credibility and have his leadership challenged if he allows Israeli bombardments of Gaza to continue. 

 

AND if Hezbollah comes into the fray, will Jordon? More than half its population is of Palestinian descent. Will it send troops into the West Bank? Will Syria join in (unlikely) and attack the Golan Heights? There are decades of disputes in the Levant, counted out like so many worry-beads. Revenge is a tempting mistress when emotions run high.

 

MOST IMPORTANTLY perhaps, will those American aircraft carriers in the Mediterranean fire on Hezbollah installations in defense of Israel? Israeli military planners have gamed-out two-front war scenarios where Israel, without assistance, loses every time. Today’s IDF (Israel Defence Force) may, in fact, be a paper tiger. While Israel does have advanced weapons system and a powerful Air Force, its army may be too small and ill-trained to overcome massed and coordinated attacks along several fronts or brutal guerilla warfare in a rubbled Gaza .

IF the Americans attack Hezbollah, will Iran enter to support its proxy (Hezbollah)? Will Egypt? Will Türkiye with its powerful army come to Gaza's aid, despite being a member of NATO? President Erdogan has made emotionally-charged speeches recently denouncing the Israeli attacks. Will the war expand further to bring in Russia and even China? Who knows? 

Potential. Cluster. Fuk.

Stay tuned.

 

Cheers, Jake.