I READ THE NEWS TODAY, OH BOY.
Up is down. Black is white. “Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.” To tell
the truth, as far as the war in Ukraine is going, I’m having trouble deciding who’s
telling the truth about what's happening in those increasingly chilly borderlands of Russia. Why not
declare both sides winners and call it a day? Done and done. UNFORTUNATELY, we
seem to have fewer and fewer referees to keep score, let alone blow the final
whistle. And the ones we do have aren’t allowed to call any of the plays or stop the
game even when there’s a fight behind the net.
SPORTS METAPHORS ASIDE, I’m
suggesting our world today is sorely lacking in authorities—political leaders, legislatures, judiciaries, governance bodies, financial institutions, academia, NGOs, activists, and so on— that
people can put their trust in, or at least trust that such organizations will behave
honestly, with transparency and obey the rule of law. On a global scale, UN
agencies like the World Health Organization (WHO), International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA), the Security Council and UN-created, independent organizations
like the ICC (International Criminal Court), World Trade Organization (WTO), the
World Bank, IMF (International Monetary Fund), not to mention the G7, G20
economic councils, NATO, and a myriad assortment of national and international forums,
most—to a greater or lesser degree—seem compromised by undue influence from
vested interests and quid pro quo funding and donation arrangements.* And
the mainstream media, where we’re supposed to get news of the world to make our
life-decisions based on thoughtful, clearly-presented and (dare I say it) unbiased reporting, well, don’t get me
started!
SO, THEN, THE WAR: As I write this,
there is generally a hardening of the front lines, with Russian forces (which
include Donbass militias) appear set to take the eastern city of Bakhmut, after a long and bloody siege. The land
corridor between Russia and Crimea appears relatively stable, but with threats
of a possible Ukrainian offensive to cut the Black Sea coastal link. Russian missiles
and artillery continue to take their toll on vast swaths of the country, with
blackouts a common feature in most major cities in Ukraine. Odessa is being
shelled and targeted with missiles, suggesting that Russia may move to completely
cut Ukraine off from the sea as well as protecting the Russian-speaking
enclave of Transnestria which lies between Ukraine and Moldova. Despite all the weaponry and aid sent from the EU and collective West, Ukraine appears to be on the back
foot and, I feel, it’s only a matter of time before some sort of negotiated
peace deal needs to be brokered before things fall apart completely.
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS, RUSSIA
has partially-mobilized some 300,000 reservists and volunteers who are being added
to the ranks of the nearly 200,000 troops already stationed in Ukraine. Most
commentators I’ve read feel there will be a winter offensive, with Russian
forces pushing back the Ukrainian lines in the Donbass and finally securing the
enclave. The tens of thousands of Russian troops that are massed along the Belarus-Ukraine
border may be used to seal the border between Ukraine and Poland to stop the
flow of supplies and weapons. Or, forces there might
move on Kiev. In the south-east, Russia will likely
march on Odessa, eventually leaving Ukraine land locked. We’ll have to wait and see what
the next few weeks and months brings.
I SHOULD ADD that any negotiations
with Russia have been made that much harder with the revelations made last week by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the Minsk 1&2 Agreements Ukraine
and Russia negotiated (with Germany and France acting as guarantors) in 2014-15
were never meant to be implemented! Merkel says she had no intention of
enforcing Ukraine’s compliance with the terms of the treaty and that it was negotiated solely to "buy time" for Ukraine to re-arm, which it did, becoming increasingly
belligerent towards the Russian-speaking eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. It was the failure of the Minsk
Accords that ultimately prompted Russia to invade, chiefly to secure
the two (now breakaway) provinces from further attacks by Ukrainian forces, and to ensure Ukraine did not join NATO. (The later of which Russia considers to be an "existential" threat and not to be tolerated under any circumstance.) Putin has said he was “surprised and disappointed”
the German leader had negotiated the deal in bad faith. IT’S AS SHAMEFUL AN
EXAMPLE of craven, short-sighted politics that I’ve seen in many a year! Shame on Merkel! Who is
Putin supposed to negotiate with now? Who can he trust in the EU or the collective West? Where are the “off-ramps” he can take? What deals can be made in such a
climate of lies, coersion and misrepresentations? Russia is not some banana republic that Brussels or Washington can
bully as much as they please. We’ve seen them try to beat up the Slavic giant with sanctions and military aid to Ukraine,
and most of their punches have failed to land. The collective West is giving
Russia no choice other than to continue its invasion to the bitter end, in all likelihood resulting
in Ukraine becoming a land-locked, primarily agrarian, rump state with little
autonomy and a great deal of corruption and poverty. Happy New Year!
I’VE MENTIONED BEFORE about
the lack of professionalism and practical, clear-sighted (and reasonably
honest!) diplomacy on the part of Western governments. Their misinformed and
arrogant policies toward Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union in
1992, including NATO’s ever-eastward expansion, have brought the world that
much closer to catastrophe. Currently, two nuclear powers are engaged in
a dangerous game of chicken in Ukraine. Think about it! SURELY, we don't want them barrelling
head-on down the road each determined not to give way. A CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP is
needed in European and Western governments: the neo-cons, neo-liberals,
deep-state aficionados, hardliners, grifters, fucktards, sociopaths, and general, all-round crazies need to
be chucked overboard, and reasonably sane people brought into the ranks of government who understand that “compromise” is not a bad word, after all.
THE LONGER THIS CONFLICT
CONTINUES, the greater the chance for somebody doing something really, really
stupid....
DECADES AGO, Einstein quipped
that he didn't know with what weapons World War III would be fought. But World War IV, he said,
would be fought with “sticks and stones.” It doesn’t take a genius to realize
that he might be on to something.
Cheers, Jake.
____________________________
* The WHO, for example, in recent years has come under
criticism for being overly influenced by a)China, b)Bill Gates and c)It’s
chief funder, the United States. The OPCW (Organization for the Prevention of
Chemical Weapons) has a lot to answer for in its inquiry around chlorine gas
attack in 2018 supposedly done by the Syrian military in the rebel-held city of
Douma during the civil war there. There is a considerable body of evidence
suggesting the organization’s administration deliberately falsified their
investigators’ findings to assign blame to President Bashar al-Assad’s government.)
And other elites like, say, bankers? When did we ever trust bankers!?! Just sayin'. The list goes
on.
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