RANT: BREATHING ROOM

WE ALL HAVE CONCERNS, to one degree or another, about the environment—be it the threat of global warming or the health of our air, our water, our lands and forests, and the myriad creatures that inhabit them. None of us (save the odd sociopath or two) wants to leave our children and the generations to follow with a biosphere less rich and diverse than the one we inherited. And yet we will. Not maybe. Or perhaps.  It’s baked into the cake sitting in the oven. 

IN NOVEMBER there was the annual COP gathering of ministers of state, NGOs, lobbyists, and activists (along with hordes of media), all there to discuss and develop a game plan for what humankind should do in response to anthropogenic global warming. The conference was held in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, over a two-week period and was the 27^th such gathering since the 1992 Rio de Janeiro United Nations Conference on Environment and Development or UNCED (also called the "Earth Summit"), which set the stage for ecologically sound and sustainable global environmental practices that we see in evidence, today. 

 

COP27 BEGAN WITH MORE than a little acrimony and ended 40 hours later than expected, with a last-minute deal that had as its signature achievement the establishment of a fund to compensate countries negatively impacted by climate change. Just who would fund this new financial vehicle was hotly debated, with China refusing to give up its status (acquired in 1992) as a “developing” country and therefore not liable for “loss and damages” claims made by impacted countries because of its CO² emissions.
 

WHICH WAS A GOOD MOVE considering, today, China is the largest emitter of GHGs (Greenhouse Gases.) Theoretically, this new fund would be financed through donations from large, emitting nations, primarily the global north (i.e., rich nations who were first to develop their economies using fossil fuels). BUT, there was no binding agreement on the amount of money developed countries will commit. So, it’s a bit like building a bank without any deposits. In a worst-case scenario it’s merely a façade, a sham agreement. HOWEVER, it is a step in the right direction: At least there is acknowledgement, however grudgingly given from developed nations, accepting their responsibility for the bulk of atmospheric carbon pollution, with all the cascading environmental effects¹ this engenders—and that they must therefore pay compensation to low-emitter countries for damages incurred. We'll see if that holds true or not in the coming months and years.

 

AN ADDITIONAL BONE OF CONTENTION among delegates was language from last year’s COP26 accord that had signatories agreeing to phase “down” their fossil fuel use, instead of the more strongly worded phase “out”. But the weaker language remained in this year’s agreement. It’s a small difference in legalese but it might have focused the minds of politicians to pursue climate mitigation policies more aggressively.  It should be noted it was only last year that the term “fossil fuels” was used at all in any COP final agreement. One would think that the chief cause of AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming), namely billions of tonnes of CO² and related gases released each year into the atmosphere, might be mentioned in documents ostensibly designed to combat their effects. I'd suggest that the hundreds of fossil fuel lobbyists (over 600!) and BAUs (Business As Usual) attendees at COP27 might have something to do with watering down the final agreement but I'm afraid of being labelled a "conspiracy theorist!" Sigh.... I’m reminded of the cigarette lobby and its decades-long program of dis-information (to use a much-abused word) disguising and obfuscating the hazards of smoking. 🚭 

[And check out the state-of-the-art cellophane wrap that protects each pack of Camels from mold and mildew. Thank goodness they found another civilian application for plastics after WWII! Ed.]

 

ACTIVISTS WOULD SAY that progress to combat climate change is being made an inch at a time when it’s miles that are needed. To call November’s COP27 a wet squib—I think I already did—and disappointing, is probably how a lot of people feel. Unless you’re in fossil fuels, of course!

AS NATURAL DISASTERS are exacerbated by rising global temperatures and unstable weather patterns, we'll see whether rigorous “climate justice” policies are enacted by developed countries to compensate poorer ones (again, mostly in the global south) who are disproportionately affected by an atmosphere with current, world-wide CO₂ concentration levels of 421 ppm.²

 

BUT, WILL SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES be made to business-as-usual any time soon, here on our little blue ball in space? 

Let’s just say I’m not holding my breath.

 

Cheers, Jake.

 

_____________________________

 

1.  LIKE the incredible flooding occurring in Pakistan just as the conference got underway. Damages there are estimated at a staggering $30 Billion, with over thirty million people affected by the unnaturally heavy monsoons, nearly 2,000 dead, and leaving 13 million homeless!)         

2. “This is an increase of 50% since the start of the Industrial Revolution, up from 280 ppm during the 10,000 years to the mid-18th century.” (Wikipedia)

 

 

  I HAD INTENDED to discuss the Convention on Biodiversity (CBD/COP15), just finished in Montreal, but I wanted to go over a couple of things from November’s COP27 climate change shindig. In the end, its’ not much of deal, I think you’ll agree, despite UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutierrez's, warning at the start of the Sharm el-Sheikh conference about the “stark consequences” of failure:

 

“There is no way we can avoid a catastrophic situation, if the two [the developed and developing world] are not able to establish a historic pact because at the present level, we will be doomed.”

 

HERE'S HOPING December's COP15 biodiversity bash isn’t a limp noodle like COP27!

 

 

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RANT: HERE'S HOPING!

I READ THE NEWS TODAY, OH BOY. Up is down. Black is white. “Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.” To tell the truth, as far as the war in Ukraine is going, I’m having trouble deciding who’s telling the truth about what's happening in those increasingly chilly borderlands of Russia. Why not declare both sides winners and call it a day? Done and done. UNFORTUNATELY, we seem to have fewer and fewer referees to keep score, let alone blow the final whistle. And the ones we do have aren’t allowed to call any of the plays or stop the game even when there’s a fight behind the net. 

 

SPORTS METAPHORS ASIDE, I’m suggesting our world today is sorely lacking in authorities—political leaders, legislatures, judiciaries, governance bodies, financial institutions, academia, NGOs, activists, and so on— that people can put their trust in, or at least trust that such organizations will behave honestly, with transparency and obey the rule of law. On a global scale, UN agencies like the World Health Organization (WHO), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Security Council and UN-created, independent organizations like the ICC (International Criminal Court), World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Bank, IMF (International Monetary Fund), not to mention the G7, G20 economic councils, NATO, and a myriad assortment of national and international forums, most—to a greater or lesser degree—seem compromised by undue influence from vested interests and quid pro quo funding and donation arrangements.* And the mainstream media, where we’re supposed to get news of the world to make our life-decisions based on thoughtful, clearly-presented and (dare I say it)  unbiased reporting, well, don’t get me started!

 

SO, THEN, THE WAR: As I write this, there is generally a hardening of the front lines, with Russian forces (which include Donbass militias) appear set to take the eastern city of Bakhmut, after a long and bloody siege. The land corridor between Russia and Crimea appears relatively stable, but with threats of a possible Ukrainian offensive to cut the Black Sea coastal link. Russian missiles and artillery continue to take their toll on vast swaths of the country, with blackouts a common feature in most major cities in Ukraine. Odessa is being shelled and targeted with missiles, suggesting that Russia may move to completely cut Ukraine off from the sea as well as protecting the Russian-speaking enclave of Transnestria which lies between Ukraine and Moldova. Despite all the weaponry and aid sent from the EU and collective West, Ukraine appears to be on the back foot and, I feel, it’s only a matter of time before some sort of negotiated peace deal needs to be brokered before things fall apart completely.

 

IN THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS, RUSSIA has partially-mobilized some 300,000 reservists and volunteers who are being added to the ranks of the nearly 200,000 troops already stationed in Ukraine. Most commentators I’ve read feel there will be a winter offensive, with Russian forces pushing back the Ukrainian lines in the Donbass and finally securing the enclave. The tens of thousands of Russian troops that are massed along the Belarus-Ukraine border may be used to seal the border between Ukraine and Poland to stop the flow of supplies and weapons. Or, forces there might move on Kiev. In the south-east, Russia will likely march on Odessa, eventually leaving Ukraine land locked. We’ll have to wait and see what the next few weeks and months brings. 

 

I SHOULD ADD that any negotiations with Russia have been made that much harder with the revelations made last week by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the Minsk 1&2 Agreements Ukraine and Russia negotiated (with Germany and France acting as guarantors) in 2014-15 were never meant to be implemented! Merkel says she had no intention of enforcing Ukraine’s compliance with the terms of the treaty and that it was negotiated solely to "buy time" for Ukraine to re-arm, which it did, becoming increasingly belligerent towards the Russian-speaking eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. It was the failure of the Minsk Accords that ultimately prompted Russia to invade, chiefly to secure the two (now breakaway) provinces from further attacks by Ukrainian forces, and to ensure Ukraine did not join NATO. (The later of which Russia considers to be an "existential" threat and not to be tolerated under any circumstance.) Putin has said he was “surprised and disappointed” the German leader had negotiated the deal in bad faith. IT’S AS SHAMEFUL AN EXAMPLE of craven, short-sighted politics that I’ve seen in many a year! Shame on Merkel! Who is Putin supposed to negotiate with now? Who can he trust in the EU or the collective West? Where are the “off-ramps” he can take? What deals can be made in such a climate of lies, coersion and misrepresentations? Russia is not some banana republic that Brussels or Washington can bully as much as they please. We’ve seen them try to beat up the Slavic giant with sanctions and military aid to Ukraine, and most of their punches have failed to land. The collective West is giving Russia no choice other than to continue its invasion to the bitter end, in all likelihood resulting in Ukraine becoming a land-locked, primarily agrarian, rump state with little autonomy and a great deal of corruption and poverty. Happy New Year!

   

I’VE MENTIONED BEFORE about the lack of professionalism and practical, clear-sighted (and reasonably honest!) diplomacy on the part of Western governments. Their misinformed and arrogant policies toward Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1992, including NATO’s ever-eastward expansion, have brought the world that much closer to catastrophe. Currently, two nuclear powers are engaged in a dangerous game of chicken in Ukraine. Think about it! SURELY, we don't want them barrelling head-on down the road each determined not to give way. A CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP is needed in European and Western governments: the neo-cons, neo-liberals, deep-state aficionados, hardliners, grifters, fucktards, sociopaths, and general, all-round crazies need to be chucked overboard, and reasonably sane people brought into the ranks of government who understand that “compromise” is not a bad word, after all.

THE LONGER THIS CONFLICT CONTINUES, the greater the chance for somebody doing something really, really stupid.... 

 

DECADES AGO, Einstein quipped that he didn't know with what weapons World War III would be fought. But World War IV, he said, would be fought with “sticks and stones.” It doesn’t take a genius to realize that he might be on to something.

 

Cheers, Jake.

 ____________________________

 

* The WHO, for example, in recent years has come under criticism for being overly influenced by a)China, b)Bill Gates and c)It’s chief funder, the United States. The OPCW (Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons) has a lot to answer for in its inquiry around chlorine gas attack in 2018 supposedly done by the Syrian military in the rebel-held city of Douma during the civil war there. There is a considerable body of evidence suggesting the organization’s administration deliberately falsified their investigators’ findings to assign blame to President Bashar al-Assad’s government.) 

And other elites like, say, bankers? When did we ever trust bankers!?! Just sayin'. The list goes on.

 

 

 

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