RANTS: MY CARONA

The other day, I watched an interview with American geographer and anthropologist, Jared Diamond in which he discussed the cheery topic of the end the world.  A humorous, plain-speaking academic and author, he’s best known for his Pulitzer winning Guns, Germs and Steel (1997) and Collapse (2005). In this May, 2020 interview with Swedish television, he compares the Covid-19 pandemic to other, potential “world-ending” crises. His top four dangers to our planet are:

1.   Nuclear winter

2.   Climate Change

3.   Resource Depletion

4.   Economic Inequality

He calls our current pandemic a mere bagatelle* in comparison to the effects of, say, filling the planet's atmosphere with dust following a nuclear war and possibly ending life on Earth. This sudden, apocalyptic event is followed next on his list by the danger of climate change, with warming temperatures, rising seas and disrupted weather systems in store for our world, which has had a relatively benign climate for over 12,000 years. Humanity might not perish but, over time, billions will die. Third on his list are our rapacious economic system and a human population well into overshoot. These will inevitably lead to a never-ending quest for dwindling mineral and natural resources deemed necessary to sustain our civilization. A case in point is the growing concerns over access to trace mineral deposits that, when mined and processed, are used in today's sophisticated electronics and computers. An economic model predicated on infinite growth on a finite planet can only result in catastrophe, says Diamond, as one vital resource after another is harvested or mined or drilled into exhaustion. These resources of course include clean air and water, healthy soils, forests, oceans and fisheries. Again, billions will die unless radical changes are made.

Diamond cites as the fourth most serious danger to our world one that is related to our overuse of Earth’s natural resources. It is the inherent instability in a world of growing inequality. As the rich get richer and the poor poorer, political and social unrest will grow. From both within countries and without, people will take action locally or migrate to wherever they can survive; societies will become overwhelmed and chaotic. Wars over resources and places to live will become commonplace and global discord will increase.

So it is somewhat comforting to learn that our current crisis is a walk in the park compared with Diamond’s top four. If, say, 2% of the world’s population of 7.8 billion succumbs to Covid-19, he calculates, that’s ‘only’ 156 million deaths—a staggering figure, but one that is nowhere near the extinction levels on his top four hit-list. Thus far, deaths from the virus are just under 370,000 worldwide, so unless the expected second-wave of infections this fall takes a surprising turn, Covid-19 will be something of a wet squib, as far as extinction is concerned.

Of course, the loss of each individual is a tragedy, and preparations and planning for future pandemics will surely be made going forward, but I think the most important thing that Covid-19 is teaching us is how fragile our societies have become. By this I mean how our societies lack the resilience that comes with having built-in redundancies in our systems of governance and economic activity. For example, a lack of social redundancy might be seen in how parent-less children are treated in our culture: We place most of them into institutions or foster care. These institutions are silos of bureaucracies within larger bureaucracies, staffed and administrated by specialists with refined and specific job descriptions. If say, funding for one manager is no longer available, the extra work burden falls on the shoulders of the remaining managers, with a consequence of less care (less time, less everything) available to the child.  By contrast, in other cultures where a child is seen as the responsibility of the community, if a parent dies or needs assistance there are neighbours available to help. This is built-in redundancy—back-ups to help raise the child.

Perhaps a clearer example is what has happened with PPEs in many Western countries, notably the United States, which faced shortages of masks, gowns, etc. following the coronavirus outbreak. Many countries were reliant on a single source—China—for their supplies, their own factories either shuttered or no longer producing such items. To rely on a supply chain thousands of miles long makes you vulnerable—less resilient—to shocks to the system, in this case the unanticipated (though obvious in hindsight) global demand for PPEs. A variety of local sources for supplies is a built-in redundancy, making for a more resilient and sustainable system.  

How will we organize ourselves going forward after a vaccine is found and the virus has run its course? Will it be business as usual and back to normal? I think most countries will attempt this. Most will try to restart their economies, now languishing in lockdown, but I suggest their rebuilding projects might increasingly come to resemble Potemkin villages—fragile and unsustainable. When all the money-printing is finished and all the cracks in our walls papered-over with worthless banknotes, how long is it before a strong wind blows them down (or enough of them that we begin to notice)? Can we move away from all we’ve done and do things differently?

Food for thought and a future blog post. In the meantime stay safe—and away from me!

Cheers, Jake.

* “bagatelle” a trifle; an insubstantial thing—Merriam-Webster