NoW UPDATE: AWAY UP NORTH!

   

AS WE ENTER the doldrum days of summer, an event happening TODAY (Friday) merits some discussion, namely the summit in Alaska between the U.S. president Donald Trump and Russia’s president Vladimir Putin. MSM is abuzz with predictions and possibilities, chiefly around ending the Ukraine-Russia war on terms Ukraine and the Europeans, and the Americans, can live with. We shall see, but I’m not expecting any breakthrough or ceasefire in the conflict coming out of today’s talks, what with Russia’s and Ukraine’s positions so far apart.

SINCE THE MAIDAN COUP in 2014, Ukraine has gradually become a NATO member in all but name, having been trained and equipped by Western militaries to operate seamlessly with NATO armies when the time came for it to become the thirty-third member of the U.S. led military alliance. As a NATO member, Ukraine could host intermediate-range missile arrays along its border with Russia, something Moscow regards as unacceptable and an existential threat.* For Russia, any post-conflict, rump Ukraine would have to be neutral¹, with limits on the size of its military, its weaponry, etc. Its government would have to be purged of Banderites and neo-Nazi elements, and have legal safeguards established to protect the rights of minorities, including Russian speakers and ethnic Russians. Ukraine would have to withdraw its forces from the remaining sectors it holds in the Donbass and acknowledge Russian sovereignty over the the eastern oblasts, including Crimea. And any treaty must be signed by a legitimate government in Kiev, not Zelensky's, because his term in office expired in 2024, yet he remains in power, citing marshal law as the reason new elections cannot be held.

Thus, neutrality, “denazification”, new elections, and territorial annexations are must haves for Moscow and I don't see Putin compromising much around any of them. He doesn't have to, he's winning.

So, it’s doubtful Zelensky and his yapping band of EU cheerleaders will find Russia’s list of demands acceptable, and the war will continue. In the coming weeks, Russia may advance to the Dnieper River as Ukraine's armies collapse. They may move on Odessa or Kiev. Or both. At that point all bets are off.

 

👉I DON’T SEE an end to the bloody, three-plus-years of war other than on the battlefield (the Alaska summit notwithstanding). Russia will take the Ukrainian territory it needs to ensure its security. Besides, Zelensky won’t agree to any of Russia’s demands and the meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, as far as ending the war, will probably be a wet squib. Nevertheless, the fact that Russia has sent a large delegation to the summit suggests there may be parallel discussions in other areas, for example improving U.S. and Russian relations (e.g., a permanent ambassador to Moscow; upgrades to Russia’s diplomatic mission in Washington, etc.); sanctions relief; trade talks, and hopefully strategic arms treaty initiatives, like a commitment to renew the New Start treaty that’s set to expire in February 2026.

👉WE WILL HAVE TO wait and see what comes out of the Alaskan summit. At least they’re talking and not throwing spitballs at each other!

 

 

CHEERS, JAKE. ____________________________________ 

 

* What do you think the Americans would do if China were to install medium-range ballistic missiles at Windsor, Ontario? It’s only 610 km to Washington as the missile crow flies. Answer: They would turn Windsor into an ashtray!

 

1. Ukraine declared itself to be a neutral, non-aligned nation in its founding constitution, after it gained its independence following the dissolution of the USSR in 1991.